As is typical in the weeks leading up to the NFL draft, rumors are starting to swirl in every which direction. Some will end up being unfounded, and some will end up legitimate (even if only by guessing correctly).

The 2026 draft effectively begins at No. 2 with the New York Jets, as the Las Vegas Raiders are expected to take Fernando Mendoza first overall.

Ohio State edge defender Arvell Reese was the clear-cut favorite for the pick coming out of free agency, but recent weeks have seen Texas Tech edge defender David Bailey overtake Reese as the betting favorite.

What does the consensus say, though?

Per NFL Mock Draft Database, here is the consensus first-round mock draft as of April 13, comprised of predictions made over the past week.

  1. Las Vegas Raiders: Fernando Mendoza, QB, Indiana (99% of picks)
  2. New York Jets: Arvell Reese, LB, Ohio State (79%)
  3. Arizona Cardinals: Francis Mauigoa, OT, Miami (35%)
  4. Tennessee Titans: Jeremiyah Love, RB, Notre Dame (49%)
  5. New York Giants: Sonny Styles, LB, Ohio State (53%)
  6. Cleveland Browns: Carnell Tate, WR, Ohio State (43%)
  7. Washington Commanders: Caleb Downs, S, Ohio State (19%)
  8. New Orleans Saints: Rueben Bain, EDGE, Miami (25%)
  9. Kansas City Chiefs: Mansoor Delane, CB, LSU (33%)
  10. Cincinnati Bengals: Jermod McCoy, CB, Tennessee (7%)
  11. Miami Dolphins: Makai Lemon, WR, USC (24%)
  12. Dallas Cowboys: Dillon Thieneman, S, Oregon (13%)
  13. Los Angeles Rams: Jordyn Tyson, WR, Arizona State (20%)
  14. Baltimore Ravens: Olaivavega Ioane, IOL, Penn State (54%)
  15. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Akheem Mesidor, EDGE, Miami (28%)
  16. New York Jets: Ty Simpson, QB, Alabama (12%)

Despite the Bailey chatter, Reese is holding firm as the heavy favorite to be selected second overall by the Jets. Bailey isn’t the consensus favorite to be chosen in any slot, although he remains the No. 3-ranked player on the consensus big board.

With the 16th overall pick, the consensus expects the Jets to select Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson, although he is hardly a heavy favorite, with only 12% of mocks sending Simpson to New York.

Immediately following the first wave of free agency, USC wide receiver Makai Lemon was the favorite to be chosen at No. 16, garnering 30% of predictions. Now, the consensus mock draft has moved Lemon up to No. 11, where the Miami Dolphins are expected to select the shifty wideout.

Would Jets fans be happy with a Reese-Simpson haul in the first round?