When the New York Jets’ 2026 schedule dropped, many Jets fans were up in arms about the supposed difficulty of the slate, especially for a fourth-place team.

In terms of 2025 win percentages, it was one of the tougher schedules in the league. But it’s important to look ahead, not back, when projecting the difficulty of a schedule.

Based on projected Vegas win totals, the Jets’ schedule is actually expected to be one of the NFL’s easiest. This is largely due to the fact that New York will face a handful of playoff teams who are expected to regress.

Pro Football Focus recently named the top three NFL teams who could take a step back in 2026. All three of those teams are on the Jets’ schedule, comprising four total games: the New England Patriots, Chicago Bears, and Denver Broncos.

The Jets will play the Patriots in Weeks 6 (away) and 16 (home), while they will visit the Bears in Week 4 and host the Broncos in Week 14.

All three of these teams made the playoffs in 2025, and all three won at least one playoff game. Combined, they had a regular season record of 39-12.

According to Vegas, though, they are projected to win a combined total of just 28.5 games in 2026, a drop of at least 10 wins compared to last year. All three teams have an over-under of 9.5.

The expected drop-offs make sense based on the typical signs for regression candidates. All three teams relied on either close victories or a soft schedule to win as many games as they did in 2025.

New England’s opponents had a win percentage of just .391, giving them the NFL’s easiest schedule since 1999 and the third-easiest over the last 50 seasons. To the Patriots’ credit, they blew those teams out, finishing the year with a +170 point differential, but they are unlikely to be gifted as many free wins in 2026.

Chicago and Denver escaped with a victory in almost every close game they encountered. The Bears set an NFL record with six comeback wins in which they trailed during the last two minutes. Meanwhile, the Broncos went 11-2 in one-score games.

Don’t be surprised if the Jets perform better against these four teams than you expect.