The major NY Jets question that is only growing louder

Only 26 days remain until the New York Jets waltz into Music City for their season-opening clash against their former head coach, Robert Saleh, and his Tennessee Titans.

As training camp and the preseason roll on, one of the major questions surrounding the Jets throughout the offseason has only grown louder.

Can Geno Smith protect the football?

Geno Smith’s first training camp in Florham Park since 2016 can best be described as boom-or-bust.

On the positive side of things, Smith is maximizing one-on-one matchups and taking shots downfield at levels that the Jets have not seen from their quarterbacks during training camp in a long time. It is clear that with Smith under center, New York’s passing game could be quite explosive.

“Seriously, folks: When Geno sees single-high, he does not hesitate to attack the defense outside the numbers. It’s why the likes of AD Mitchell have been so active during the offseason,” wrote Jets X-Factor’s Robby Sabo of Smith’s approach in camp.

The flip side, though, is that Smith’s aggressive play style has resulted in plenty of turnovers.

Smith threw two interceptions in the Jets’ recent joint practice against the Buccaneers, although one appeared to be due to Garrett Wilson falling down. During Monday’s practice, Smith threw a bad interception to safety Andre Cisco, missing Isaiah Williams by “a wide margin,” per Jets X-Factor’s Connor Long.

After throwing a league-high 17 interceptions in 15 starts last season, Smith’s ball security is arguably the No. 1 question surrounding the Jets as it pertains to their ability to win games in 2026. New York has enough talent to be a competitive football team if they win the turnover battle, but if they come up short in that column, they probably are not quite talented enough to overcome it very often.

The Jets will go as far as Smith’s ball security takes them. He has proven that he can be a winning quarterback when he takes care of the football.

Since 2022, Smith has a 16-8 record as a starter when he does not turn the ball over (interception or lost fumble). Over the same span, he’s 13-27 when turning the ball over at least once.

The promising news for New York is that Smith is due to see his interception total decline in 2026. While Smith threw 17 picks in 2025, many of them were not his fault. In fact, Pro Football Focus named Smith the “unluckiest” quarterback of the season based on the fact that he threw 4.7 more interceptions than he was expected to, according to his number of “turnover-worthy throws.”

A decline of approximately five interceptions would push Smith down to 12 picks, which is precisely how many he averaged per 17 games over his three seasons as the Seattle Seahawks’ starter (35 INTs in 49 starts). That would be a much more manageable number for the Jets to work with.

Training camp, though, has seen Smith look quite interception-prone, raising questions about whether that regression to the mean will actually happen.

In fairness, it’s only camp—the Jets could be encouraging Smith to take chances so they can get more opportunities to evaluate their wide receivers and cornerbacks in contested-catch situations. In this regard, New York has certainly benefited from Smith’s aggressiveness.

Multiple young receivers have impressed in camp thanks to the opportunities Smith has given them. Adonai Mitchell has established himself as the Jets’ WR2 after connecting with Smith on a multitude of vertical shots. Isaiah Williams, who was only expected to make the team because of his return skills, is the favorite to land the Jets’ starting slot receiver role after making some outstanding catches downfield.

Surely, having Smith under center in training camp has been beneficial for the team on both sides of the ball. He’s a savvy veteran who knows how to get his teammates lined up properly, and his play style creates extra chances for players on both offense and defense to get quality reps in.

Still, Smith must eventually prove that his 17-interception implosion in Las Vegas was a mirage. We can spend all day citing stats and video clips showing how unlucky he was, but until he goes out there and starts stringing together turnover-free games in a Jets uniform, the people of Gotham City will remain skeptical of his ball security, especially if they continue hearing about him throwing picks in practice almost every day.

After all, Smith wasn’t just turnover-prone the last time we saw him in an NFL uniform. New Yorkers and New Jerseyans have not forgotten how he played when he last wore a Jets uniform, either. Those 43 turnovers in Smith’s 33 games as a Jet are stuck in every fan’s mind.

That criticism isn’t fair, as Smith hasn’t thrown a pass for the Jets in a decade. But how often is fan criticism fair? Many Jets fans won’t trust him until he earns it, even if the distrust largely stems from many moons ago.

Still, as much of a low-hanging fruit as it may be to project Smith as a turnover machine in his return to New York, it is fair to give just as much credence to the positive signs as the negative.

Sure, Smith struggled to protect the ball in Las Vegas last year, but that was preceded by three seasons of solid ball security in Seattle. It is entirely possible that Smith was victimized by a brutal supporting cast with the Raiders and will bounce back upon joining a more competent system in New York (at least in terms of weaponry and offensive line play; coaching is TBD).

And while Smith has thrown more interceptions in camp this summer than you would like, it’s only practice; his mission is to help the team get better, not to win. In a real game, Smith might have been more cautious in certain situations where he threw picks. In practice, it makes sense to take every available shot rather than throwing the ball away, as it allows everyone to get extra work in: he can work on his accuracy while the receiver and the defender can work on their ball skills.

The looming question mark of Geno Smith’s ball security has certainly grown louder throughout the past few weeks; there is no disputing that. But there are still legitimate reasons for Jets fans to be optimistic that Smith’s turnover total is due for a significant drop in 2026, which could position the team for a surprisingly competitive year.