When you’ve lost three straight games in the NFL, it’s time to look in the mirror and admit that changes to your strategy must be made.
There is one obvious change the New York Jets should consider if they want to turn their 2026 season around.
The offense can be salvaged with a simple philosophical shift
According to the analytics website NFElo, the Jets have a pass rate expected of -2.0% through Week 4. Essentially, this means the Jets call pass plays about 2% less often than expected after accounting for factors like down, distance, score, time, and field position.
The Jets’ raw pass play percentage is 61%, ranking 15th, but the -2.0% pass rate over expected indicates that, after accounting for context, the league-average team would be expected to pass the ball around 63% of the time if placed in the same situations.
Simply put, the Jets have leaned slightly toward the run relative to league-average expectations. That does not make much sense moving forward now that we have four games of data on the effectiveness of both units.
The Jets’ run game has been abysmal. They rank 30th with 3.4 yards per rush attempt.
The pass game, though, has been competent. New York ranks 17th with 6.3 net yards per attempt.
Passing is more effective than running in a vacuum (every NFL team averages more net yards per pass than yards per rush this season), so even if a team had the same ranking in each facet, their pass game would be more effective. It’s why, league-wide, teams pass more than they run.
But if your pass game ranks a whopping 13 spots higher in yards-per-play efficiency than your run game, it seems quite clear that your optimal path to success is to lean on the pass game even more than average.
The Jets rank significantly higher in the facet that is already more effective at the baseline level. This means that the disparity between a Jets pass attempt and a Jets rush attempt is particularly large compared to the average NFL team.
The numbers back it up. New York’s 2.9 margin between net yards per pass attempt (6.3) and yards per rush attempt (3.4) is the eighth-largest in the NFL. The league average is 2.2.
New York should look to become a pass-first team moving forward. However, it is not just because their pass game is operating much better right now. It can also help salvage the run game.
Despite the age-old adage that the run can be used to set up the pass, the opposite is also true. A strong aerial attack, particularly one that can threaten defenses down the field, is the perfect way to clear space for the run game.
If an offense proves itself capable of hitting deep passes at a consistent rate, the defense will be forced to consistently drop two safeties deep, taking a defender out of the box to defend the run. That one tweak can be the difference between having enough blockers to account for every defender in the box and being outnumbered, leaving someone unblocked to blow up a run in the backfield.
All of the league’s top rushing teams in 2026 have an efficient pass game to complement it. Every team ranked top-8 in yards per rush attempt is also averaging comfortably more than the league average of 6.3 net yards per pass attempt.
- Kansas City Chiefs (5.5 yards per rush): 7.5 net yards per pass attempt
- Atlanta Falcons (5.2 yards per rush): 6.7 net yards per pass attempt
- Buffalo Bills (5.1 yards per rush): 7.7 net yards per pass attempt
- Chicago Bears (4.9 yards per rush): 6.7 net yards per pass attempt
- San Francisco 49ers (4.8 yards per rush): 8.9 net yards per pass attempt
- Baltimore Ravens (4.8 yards per rush): 8.6 net yards per pass attempt
- Los Angeles Rams (4.8 yards per rush): 6.8 net yards per pass attempt
- Carolina Panthers (4.4 yards per rush): 7.0 net yards per pass attempt
The Jets have proven themselves to have enough deep passing upside to scare defenses into backing off. Geno Smith is off to a stellar start as a deep passer, and his receivers have done a fantastic job of capitalizing on his accuracy.
Smith has completed 8 of his 11 deep passes (20+ air yards) for 263 yards, three touchdowns, and no interceptions, with none of his deep passes being dropped. Among quarterbacks with at least 10 deep attempts, Smith leads the NFL in completion percentage (72.7%), passer rating (154.4), and yards per attempt (23.9).
The problem holding New York back is not Smith’s efficiency as a deep passer, but his frequency.
Despite those incredible numbers, Smith is just 19th in deep pass attempts (11). Only 9.4% of his total pass attempts have been deep passes, ranking 23rd out of 34 qualifiers.
So, not only should the Jets be passing the ball more often in general, but they should also be throwing deep on a higher percentage of their pass attempts. Smith’s deep passing and the receivers’ execution on those targets have been more than good enough to justify New York becoming one of the league’s most aggressive downfield passing teams.
From there, the run game should start to open up. Even if the Jets don’t hit those deep passes at the same consistency they have so far at a smaller volume, the mere threat of their downfield pass game will be enough to back defenses off and yield space to the run game.
The Jets now have about a quarter-season’s worth of data on the strengths and weaknesses of their offense. All signs point to an increased overall pass rate and an increased deep pass rate as two changes that would improve their offensive output.
