3 keys to a New York Jets upset over New England

Today could be one of the New York Jets’ best days in recent history. No, that is not hyperbole.

To achieve it, though, Gang Green will need to pull off an upset on the road against the New England Patriots. Those are two things that have never mixed well for the Jets: the road and the Patriots.

It’s certainly possible, but if the Jets want to win after entering the game as 7.5-point underdogs, they must do three things.

Get the screen game going

The Patriots rank eighth in blitz rate (36.3%) through five games this season. Don’t expect that to change today; it could be even higher.

Geno Smith has struggled under pressure this year, as 25.4% of his pressures have turned into sacks, the second-highest mark among 37 quarterbacks this year (minimum 50 dropbacks).

Given that, why wouldn’t the Patriots send the house and look to rattle the veteran quarterback? The Jets should anticipate that and look to get the quick passing/screen game going underneath.

With Kenyon Sadiq and the return of Omar Cooper Jr., the Jets have the weapons to thrive in that area. Instead of forcing Smith to consistently go through his progressions and make himself vulnerable to big sacks and fumbles, they should simplify things in those situations.

This is the perfect example of a game where the Jets can’t afford to take back-breaking sacks. The offense will need to score to come out on top today, unlike last week against the Cleveland Browns.

Use Garrett Wilson downfield

The Jets must take advantage of Garrett Wilson’s favorable matchup against the Patriots’ heavy man coverage today.

This year, while the sample size is small, Wilson has been excellent when targeted downfield, catching all three of his deep targets (20+ air yards) for 77 yards and a touchdown.

For the Jets to come out on top today, they’ll need explosive plays on offense. The Patriots run man coverage at the fourth-highest rate in the NFL (28.3%), which could create consistent opportunities for Wilson to do damage in the deep game.

Smith has also been excellent when throwing deep this season. His 66.7% completion rate on 20+ yard attempts ranks second among qualified QBs.

The Jets can’t be hesitant to take deep shots today. Frank Reich’s balancing act will be tested: can he use the screen game while also getting the deep game involved?

Make a field-flipping play

The Jets are underdogs for a reason. New England has been the better team this season, without a doubt. With that in mind, for the Jets to pull off an upset, they can’t be expected to mount long scoring drives on every offensive possession.

So, New York will need to generate a field-flipping play to leave with a win today. Look at last week against the Browns. A botched punt gave the Jets excellent field position and set up the later game-winning Braelon Allen touchdown.

Whether it comes on special teams, where the Jets haven’t sprung free for a big return yet, or on defense, getting one of those momentum-swinging plays is crucial.

The Jets haven’t scored many points this season. They are averaging just 18.6 points per game, tied for 27th in the NFL. The defense and/or special teams will need to help the offense today and set up at least one favorable opportunity.

That one game-changing play could be the difference between an upset and a loss.