One of the most touchy subjects in New York Jets land has been rookie edge rusher David Bailey. Typically, when he comes up in conversation, people respond loudly and polarizingly: “he’s a bust!” or “he’s a superstar!”
When evaluating any player, especially an edge like Bailey, there are multiple layers. It’s never so black and white.
After Bailey’s performance in Sunday’s loss to the Kansas City Chiefs, though, Jets fans should all agree on Bailey so far.
Bailey: A budding bust or rising star?
Four weeks into the season, we explored the question: Is Bailey on a bust trajectory? Many fans felt he should have been impacting games more by that point, even though it was still early in the season.
At that point, he ranked 35th among edge rushers in pressures (11). Bailey also tallied two sacks and a forced fumble, while his 56.8 pass-rushing grade at Pro Football Focus ranked 84th among 110 qualified edges.
Now, after Week 9, here is where he ranks in crucial categories among 91 qualified players at his position (min. 200 snaps):
- 66.9 PFF grade (45th)
- 31 pressures (13th)
- 8 sacks (T-5th)
- 5 forced fumbles (1st)
No matter how you look at it, Bailey has been very productive. The most encouraging part is that he has racked up these numbers despite still having much more room to grow, as our own Michael Nania pointed out.
Bailey has improved drastically in several areas from the start of the season to now. Early on, there were justified concerns about his ability to consistently win his pass-rushing reps in one-on-one situations. Through Week 5, his grim 7.4% pass-rush win rate ranked 90th among 129 players at his position despite already having five sacks.
Now compare that to Weeks 6-9. Since Week 6, his pass-rush win rate has jumped to 15.3%, more than double his first five games, and good enough for 13th among 56 qualifiers over that span (minimum 70 pass-rush snaps). He also ranks seventh in PFF’s pass-rushing grade over these three games (73.6).
Obviously, sack production takes center stage, but improving his consistency at winning his matchup cleanly matters just as much. It shows that there could be more to his game than just splash plays.
Against Kansas City on Sunday, Bailey had arguably his most complete game of the year, bringing both the flash and the consistency.
Bailey stole the spotlight by logging two strip-sacks on Patrick Mahomes, both coming on the same possession late in the first half. Bailey also became the first rookie in the past 10 seasons to record multiple sacks and force multiple fumbles in the same game.
But he didn’t allow the sacks to be his only contributions. Bailey also finished the game with five total pressures on 26 pass-rush snaps, a strong 19.2% pressure rate, while his pass-rush win rate was an elite 20%, the sixth-best mark among edge rushers (min. 20 pass-rush snaps) in Week 9.
That’s pretty exciting. Bailey is only eight games into his NFL career at a position where success doesn’t always come right away, yet he is defying that with his strong start.
I’ll be the first to admit that I thought Arvell Reese made more sense for the Jets with the No. 2 overall pick in April. I thought he offered more upside, and I was particularly intrigued by what he could bring to Aaron Glenn’s system.
Reese’s start to his career with the Jets’ crosstown rivals hasn’t been anything to scoff at, but Bailey has been similarly impressive, and he deserves his flowers for what he’s accomplished so far.
Looking at his recent stretch and the improvement since Week 1, it’s tantalizing to think of where he can be a year from now, two seasons from now, or dare I say, in his prime. Yes, that’s far out, but Bailey’s trajectory throughout his rookie year puts him on track to reach an incredible ceiling.
For those who have been critical of Bailey’s early career, what more could you expect? He has forced five fumbles, which leads the NFL, and has been in on eight sacks, tied for the fifth-most at the position.
It’s easy to call some of his sacks “fugazi” or “not legitimate” because, sure, they weren’t all from a beautiful spin move, bull rush, or clean one-on-one win. However, do you think that all other sacks around the league come in “high-quality” fashion? Even the top pass-rushers who consistently top the charts in sacks have a handful of those every season. Not every sack, even from the best of the best, is picture-perfect.
So yes, Bailey has room to grow, like every rookie in the league. However, the already glaring improvement and constant flashes suggest the Texas Tech product has a lofty ceiling and could be a true game-changer for years to come.
