Should the New York Jets bring back Jordan Jenkins?

The numbers make it obvious what the New York Jets' decision should be regarding Jordan Jenkins. [sc name="nanianumbers" ] Edge rusher is once again the prime defensive need for the New York Jets as they head into free agency. While they most certainly have their sights set on marquee targets such as Dante Fowler, the Jets will also have to make a decision on the man who has played more career games for them (60) than any other defensive player on the 2019 roster---Jordan Jenkins. Jenkins has spurred plenty of debate among the fanbase. Some fans are completely fine with letting him skip town. Others view him as a solid player and hope to see him brought back. When you turn to the data, it becomes obvious which side is correct. The Jets would be wise to let Jenkins walk. Let's dig into the reasons why it would be a poor allocation of cap space to retain Jenkins at anything more than a low-tier deal (say, $4 million annually). Run defense The first thing that anybody points to when talking about the positives of Jenkins' game is his run defense. He is known as a gritty and tough edge-setter who gets the dirty work done. And that is true. Jenkins does those things well. However, the Jets already have two solid run defenders at EDGE who are under contract for 2020, Tarell Basham and Kyle Phillips. That duo will have a combined cap hit of just $1.36M. The Jets' roster is loaded with players who are proficient against the run. All of the following players are under contract for 2020. Clearly, the Jets have no need for any run-defending help along the defensive front. They have plenty of cheap contributors who range from solid to elite in that phase. Perhaps Joe Douglas could make an exception if Jenkins were a stupendous presence against the run, but there is hardly any data that supports the notion of Jenkins even being average in that phase. Jenkins elevated to the 81st percentile in tackling efficiency against the run this past season, but the sample size was tiny. He only made 16 run tackles (one miss). Just one more miss would have dropped him to about league average efficiency. His total of eight run stops (tackles that constitute a negative value play for the offense) tied for 76th-most among edge defenders. Pass-rushing The passing game is where the Jets are in need of help defensively. Unfortunately, Jenkins can only be considered mediocre in that phase. Jenkins has never even cracked the top-45 at his position in total pressures. He had an efficient rookie season getting after the quarterback, but he only rushed the passer 160 times that season. His yearly pass-rush opportunities have more than doubled since then, as he averaged 327.3 pass-rush snaps per season from 2017-19. He has produced at a below-average level with the increased volume. Coverage Gregg Williams likes to drop anybody and everybody into coverage. The Jets had three edge defenders rank in the top-50 of coverage snaps last season---Basham (12th, 75), Jenkins (25th, 51), and Phillips (50th, 24). Only one of those three players posted a below-average coverage grade - Jenkins (55.0, 37th percentile). Jenkins has generally struggled when dropping back in coverage. Over the course of his career, Jenkins has given up 25 catches on 31 targets for 273 yards (8.8 per target), 15 first downs (48.4% rate), two touchdowns, and no interceptions. Jenkins actually had a strong rookie year in coverage. On a career-high 87 coverage snaps, Jenkins allowed only 30 yards on eight targets (3.8 per target, 0.34 per cover snap). Since then, across 179 coverage snaps (59.7 per season), Jenkins has allowed 243 yards on 19 targets (12.8 per target, 1.36 per cover snap). Conclusion Jenkins hardly brings anything of note to the table. His solid edge-setting against the run (which, admittedly, is probably underrated by many of the statistics above) was valuable on a rookie contract, but that is not a skill worth paying any sort of sizable number for when it is not accompanied by positive impact in the passing game. The Jets have two players on dirt-cheap deals that can replicate (or even provide an improvement over) what Jenkins offers for a fraction of the cost. Passing the torch to them and letting Jenkins go is Cap Management 101.