History-based New York Jets 7-round mock draft

Michael Nania uses historical trends to make the most favorable picks for the New York Jets. [sc name="nanianumbers" ] Yesterday, I launched my first analytics-based mock draft for the New York Jets, making the best selections according to the advanced numbers. This mock will switch things up a bit. I will be using aggregate data from past drafts to deduce the likelihood of success for potential Jets targets on the board, making selections based on those odds. These mocks are conducted using The Draft Network's Mock Draft Machine. No trades are made. Keep in mind that these picks are not my personal preferences and are made simply to point out interesting facts regarding historical odds of success, so don't knock me too harshly! Round 1, Pick 11 The pick: OT Jedrick Wills (Alabama) Also considered: WR Jerry Jeudy (Alabama), WR CeeDee Lamb (Oklahoma), WR Henry Ruggs (Alabama) Key names off the board: OT Tristan Wirfs (#4, Giants), OT Mekhi Becton (#8, Cardinals), OT Andrew Thomas (#10, Browns) Wills would be the clear-and-obvious pick for the Jets in this scenario, and history agrees. Since 2000, 24 out of 45 offensive linemen selected in the top-15 have made at least one Pro Bowl (53.3%). Over the same span, just 11 out of 36 wide receivers selected in the top-15 have earned at least one Pro Bowl nod (30.6%). Since 2010, the 26 offensive linemen selected in the top-15 have combined to log 117 seasons as a primary starter out of 151 possible seasons (77.5%). For top-15 wide receivers over the same span, that rate is 64.4 percent. Wills' incredible athletic profile puts him in great company. The 6-foot-4, 312-pounder registered a 5.05-second forty yard dash time (90th percentile among OL), 113-inch broad jump (94th), and 34.5-inch vertical jump (97th) at the Combine. Only two offensive linemen have been taken in the first round after posting a sub-5.1 forty time, 113-plus inches in the broad jump, and 34-plus inches in the vertical jump - Lane Johnson (#4, 2013) and Trent Williams (#4, 2010). Those two studs have combined for 10 Pro Bowl appearances. Round 2, Pick 48 The pick: WR Donovan Peoples-Jones (Michigan) Also considered: WR Michael Pittman (USC), WR Brandon Aiyuk (Arizona St.) Key names off the board: WR Laviska Shenault (#39, Dolphins), WR K.J. Hamler (#42, Jaguars), WR Tee Higgins (#44, Colts), OT Austin Jackson (#45, Buccaneers) Michael Pittman is enticing here, but history tells us that big-bodied receivers are a terrible bet in the second round. Here all 6-foot-4 or taller wide receivers who have been taken in the second round since 2000: Outside of Vincent Jackson, every wide receiver at 6-foot-4 to be selected in the second round since the turn of the century has been a major bust. Of course, this by no means that Pittman is magically doomed to fail if he gets drafted in a certain round and stands at a certain height. He's an excellent prospect who could very well have an equally excellent career. Just remember the purpose of this study - to point out the trends. Ultimately, I decided on Peoples-Jones, who possesses an intriguing athletic profile that drew some favorable comparisons. Peoples-Jones weighed in at 212 pounds (74th percentile among wide receivers) and still posted a 4.48 forty (64th) and an incredible 44.5-inch vertical (third-best ever recorded). Only two other wide receivers have been taken in the second round at 210-plus pounds with a sub-4.5 forty and a 40-plus inch vertical - D.K. Metcalf (2019) and Chris Chambers (2001). Metcalf posted 1,119 yards and eight touchdowns across 18 regular season and playoff games for the Seahawks in his 2019 rookie season. Throughout seven seasons with the Dolphins, Chambers collected 5,688 yards and 43 touchdowns over 100 games. Round 3, Pick 68 The pick: OT Isaiah Wilson (Georgia) Also considered: OT Prince Tega Wanogho (Auburn), OT Lucas Niang (TCU) Key names off the board: WR Michael Pittman (#64, Seahawks) My choice boiled down to three offensive tackles - Niang, Wanogho, and Wilson. First, I looked at the success of round three offensive linemen from the two conferences represented by the three tackles who demanded consideration. Wanogho and Wilson come out of the SEC, while Niang comes out of the Big 12. The SEC has been a much more efficient producer of offensive line talent in this round. Since 2010, 12 offensive linemen have been selected out of the SEC in round three, and they have combined for 41 seasons as primary starters out of 77 possible seasons (53.2%). Out of seven Big 12 linemen taken in the third round over that span, only six starting seasons have been accrued out of a maximum of 28 (21.4%). Oklahoma's Orlando Brown is a recent third-round success story, starting two seasons for Baltimore after being taken in 2018, but he was the only hit out of the group in the 2010s. So, we eliminate Niang and look to Wanogho and Wilson. Wilson's most notable physical attribute is his massive 350-pound frame. That seems to bode well for him. Three of the four third-rounders to weigh in at 345-plus pounds were hits - Orlando Brown (345, 2018), Max Starks (350, 2004), and Derrick Dockery (347, 2003). Brown just made a Pro Bowl in his second season. Starks started 96 games for the Steelers, while Dockery started 79 games for the Redskins. Wanogho has mostly average measurables, landing at the 57th percentile in height at 6-foot-5 and the 38th percentile in weight at 308 pounds. Linemen with average measurables have not fared too well in the third round. The 23 round three selections since 2000 that ranged from both 6-foot-3 to 6-foot-5 and 305-to-315 pounds combined to average just 3.1 approximate value per season, which equates to about four or five starts per year. Wilson's SEC pedigree and mammoth size make him the most historically-favored tackle available. Round 3, Pick 79 The pick: WR Van Jefferson (Florida) Also considered: WR Chase Claypool (Notre Dame), WR Bryan Edwards (South Carolina) Key names off the board: OT Prince Tega Wanogho (#77, Broncos) The third round has been a great place to find talent at wide receiver. Of the top 30 third-round picks in career approximate value since 2010, seven are wide receivers, more than any other position in that group. Players like Emmanuel Sanders (#82, 2010), Eric Decker (#87, 2010), T.Y. Hilton (#92, 2012) and Keenan Allen (#76, 2013) have come out of the third. Just over the past three drafts, we have seen Terry McLaurin (#76, 2019), Michael Gallup (#81, 2018), Cooper Kupp (#69, 2017), Chris Godwin (#84), and Kenny Golladay (#96, 2017) forge brilliant starts to their careers after being taken in the third. Those five big-time players make up 35.7 percent of the 14 wide receivers selected in the third round since 2017, quite a solid hit rate for this point of the draft. Looking to dip into that pot of gold and continuing to go full throttle towards assisting Sam Darnold, wide receiver is the route of choice here. After adding an athletic freak in Peoples-Jones, we turn to a route-tunning technician in Jefferson. Round 4, Pick 120 The pick: EDGE Kenny Willekes (Michigan St.) It's time to start thinking about defense. EDGE and cornerback are the Jets' two biggest needs on that side of the ball. Cornerback has been a lost cause in the fourth round. Of the 18 cornerbacks selected in the fourth since 2010, the career leader in approximate value is Tavon Young, who has picked up just 10 AV over four seasons. Another bit of context that shows how bad the group is - former Jets selection Juston Burris is tied for fourth with 7 AV. EDGE, however, has seen its share of successes, most notably with Everson Griffen (#100, 2010), Trey Flowers (#101, 2015), and Za'Darius Smith (#122, 2015). All three players ranked top-20 at their position in pressures this past season. Smith led the NFL with 93 pressures. In addition, decent starters such as Sam Acho, Alex Okafor, William Gholston, John Simon, Maxx Crosby, and Carl Lawson have come out of the fourth. While none of the 18 cornerbacks picked in the fourth round since 2010 have amassed more than 10 AV, 20 of the 40 edge defenders have. So, EDGE is the place to go here. We turn to the high-floor, high-production redshirt senior out of Michigan State in Willekes. He picked up a total of 49.0 tackles for loss over his final three college seasons, including 23.5 sacks. He peaked at 10.0 in 2019. Round 5, Pick 158 The pick: CB Harrison Hand (Temple) It's finally time to pick a cornerback, as history says the fifth round is a great place to find talent at that position. In back-to-back drafts (2010 and 2011), the Seahawks selected Kam Chancellor (#133) and Richard Sherman (#154). Plenty of other starting cornerbacks have come out of the fifth, such as Damontae Kazee (2017, #149), Desmond King (2017, #151), Bobby McCain (2015, #145), Ricardo Allen (2014, #147), and Josh Norman (2012, #143). Hand is known for his abilities in zone coverage as part of a Cover-3 scheme, which the Jets ran frequently near the end of 2019. Round 6, Pick 191 The pick: RB Joshua Kelley (UCLA) The sixth round is a good place to take a shot on a running back. Of the 48 backs taken in the sixth since 2010, eight of them (16.7%) have accumulated at least 15 AV. For reference, 15 AV is equal to Rex Burkhead's career total. Burkhead has 2,079 yards from scrimmage and 16 touchdowns over seven career seasons (73 games). That's a respectable hit rate for this point of the draft. Players such as Alfred Morris, Latavius Murray, James Starks, Theo Riddick, Alfred Blue, Andre Ellington, and Spencer Ware have come out of the sixth. Kelley does not flash many exciting traits, but his production makes him a worthy gamble at this point. He rushed for 2,303 yards and 24 touchdowns over 22 games at UCLA. Round 6, Pick 211 The pick: OG Darryl Williams (Mississippi St.) There have been a ton of starting interior offensive linemen scooped up in the sixth round. Jason Kelce, Ted Larsen, Brandon Fusco, Zach Fulton, Matt Paradis, Ryan Jensen, and Laurent Duvernay-Tardif have all logged at least three seasons as primary starters after being taken in the sixth. Those seven players make up nearly half of the top-16 sixth-round picks in career approximate value since 2010. The Patriots' and Seahawks' primary centers in 2019, Ted Karras and Joey Hunt, respectively, were both taken in the sixth round of the 2016 Draft (both taking over due to injury). The Redskins picked up Chase Roullier, who has started 37 games for them at center, in 2017. The Ravens took Bradley Bozeman at #215 in 2018, and he elevated to a 16-game starter at left guard in 2019. The Jets added a pair of tackles early in this mock, but they have yet to add some beef on the interior. History tells us that now is the perfect time. We wrap things up with Williams, a tough-but-rigid guard from Mississippi State.

Michael Nania uses historical trends to make the most favorable picks for the New York Jets.

Round 1, Pick 11

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