Calculating NFL Draft success rates by position – fifth round

Michael Nania analyzes the success rates of each offensive and defensive position in the fifth round of the NFL Draft. As Joe Douglas and the Jets ponder over positional value in preparation for the Draft, it is interesting to look back at the past and examine which positions have yielded the most value at each point of the draft. After digging through the fourth round, we move on to the fifth. I charted the career production of each fifth round pick from 2010-19 (366 players) to get a sense of how successful draft selections at each position have turned out to be. Various measures of productivity are listed for each position, as well as its rank in those measures among all positions. The positions are ranked by their percentage of games played out of possible games. Once this point of the draft is reached, nothing is handed to any prospect. Whereas earlier picks will usually get an ample amount of time to show what they are capable of, the later picks need to prove themselves to get on the field at all. Every game played is earned. For that reason, I believe this is the best way to measure success on Day 3. Which positions have proven to be the worst investments during the fifth round? Let's start with the most successful positions and work our way towards the least fruitful of the bunch. #12 - Kicker and punter (73.0% of games played) Picks: 14 Possible seasons: 58 Games played: 677 (73.0% of possible games - 1st) Approximate value: 88 (1.52 per season - 6th) First-Team All-Pro seasons: 1 (1.7% - 1st) Pro Bowl seasons: 1 (1.7% - 5th) Seasons as primary starter: 42 (72.4% - 1st) First-Team All-Pro players: 1 (7.1% - 1st) Pro Bowl players: 1 (7.1% - 4th) Only four specialists were taken in one of the top-four rounds throughout the 2010s decade. The fifth round is where things begin to pick up. The 14 kickers and punters taken in the 2010s have been a primary starter for their teams in 72.4% of possible seasons, a rate that is more than double the second-ranked position (center, which only had four picks) and nearly triple that of any other position. It should be noted that the rate dips to 56.9% if we only counted seasons logged for the team that drafted the player, but that would still be tops among all positions. In terms of effectiveness, the story is very different for the two sides of this group. Of the six kickers, just two own a career field goal percentage higher than 84%, which is the approximate league average over the past five years. Austin Seibert made 86.2% of his attempts for the Browns in his 2019 rookie season, but he missed five extra points. Jake Elliott has been extremely average over three seasons with the Eagles, making 93.9% of extra points and 84.1% of field goals, both marks dead-on with the league averages. In addition, none of the four kickers drafted in the fifth round from 2010-18 lasted with the team that drafted them beyond two seasons. To sum it up, none of the six kicker selections have proven to be above-average players. Punters have been more successful. While three of the eight are no longer in the league (Zoltan Mesko, 2010, Jeff Locke, 2013, and Johnny Townsend, 2018), the other five have been consistently good. Seattle's Michael Dickson is responsible for the only First-Team All-Pro and Pro Bowl nods. Jake Bailey had a great 2019 rookie season for New England. Bradley Pinion (Tampa Bay, 2015), Sam Martin (Detroit, 2013), and J.K. Scott (Green Bay, 2018) have combined for 14 consecutive seasons with the teams that drafted them and have mostly played at an effective level. Those are small sample sizes, but history seems to agree that punters have been more reliable draft selections. Of the top-20 kickers in AV throughout the 2010s, 13 were undrafted (65.0%). Just eight of top-20 punters were undrafted (40.0%). If your team desperately needs a new kicker or punter, the fifth round is the first point of the draft where it is acceptable to consider one, but it can be argued that the hit rate (in terms of finding above-average players) has not been quite good enough to be worth passing up on substantially more valuable offensive or defensive positions. There is not much evidence to suggest that drafting a specialist gives your team a better chance of finding a solution than simply bringing in an undrafted player or two. #11 - Defensive tackle (55.7% of games played) Picks: 23 Possible seasons: 108 Games played: 963 (55.7% of possible games - 2nd) Approximate value (explanation): 252 (2.33 per season - 1st) First-Team All-Pro seasons: 0 (0.0% - 5th) Pro Bowl seasons: 2 (1.9% - 3rd) Seasons as primary starter: 28 (25.9% - 3rd) First-Team All-Pro players: 0 (0.0% - 5th) Pro Bowl players: 2 (8.7% - 3rd) Malik Jackson and Grady Jarrett are the home runs of this group. Each player has only made one Pro Bowl apiece, but they have been good enough to warrant a few more. Ironically enough, both Jackson and Jarrett were taken with the 137th overall pick. Jackson, selected by Denver in 2012, ranked eighth among defensive tackles in quarterback hits from 2013-18 with 84. He also ranked ninth in sacks (32.5) and 10th in tackles for loss (55) over that span. Jarrett, selected by Atlanta in 2015, elevated to a starting role in 2016 and has become one of the league's most dominant interior forces over the past three years. Since 2017, Jarrett ranks third among defensive tackles in tackles for loss (35) and eighth in quarterback hits (45). He was PFF's fifth-ranked defensive tackle in 2018 and jumped to No. 3 in 2019. Besides those two, this position has seen plenty of successes relative to others in the fifth round, including Matt Ioannidis, Bilal Nichols, D.J. Reader, Tyeler Davison, Davon Godchaux, Karl Klug, Cam Thomas, and Quinton Jefferson. #10 - Tight end (52.8% of games played) Picks: 22 Possible seasons: 116 Games played: 980 (52.8% of possible games - 3rd) Approximate value: 102 (0.88 per season - 11th) First-Team All-Pro seasons: 1 (0.9% - 4th) Pro Bowl seasons: 2 (1.7% - 5th) Seasons as primary starter: 27 (23.3% - 4th) First-Team All-Pro players: 1 (4.5% - 3rd) Pro Bowl players: 2 (9.1% - 2nd) As has been a theme for the tight end position throughout this series, it posts lackluster AV numbers but strong starter rates. Teams have had success finding roles on both offense and special teams for their tight end picks, but those selections have struggled to accumulate AV since most of them do not contribute much as receivers. George Kittle is by far the best pick of this group. In just three seasons, he has racked up twice as much AV (24) as any other player. He is responsible for the lone First-Team All-Pro appearance and the two Pro Bowl nods. Not even one of the other 21 players have averaged 20.0-plus receiving yards per game throughout their career, but there have been some quality finds. The bust rate has been relatively low, as about half of these selections have been able to carve out some sort of role in the league. Luke Willson, Jesse James, Nick Boyle, and C.J. Uzomah are among the most well-known players. #9 - Linebacker (46.1% of games played) Picks: 55 Possible seasons: 253 Games played: 1,865 (46.1% of possible games - 4th) Approximate value: 407 (1.61 per season - 7th) First-Team All-Pro seasons: 0 (0.0% - 5th) Pro Bowl seasons: 2 (0.8% - 7th) Seasons as primary starter: 38 (15.0% - 8th) First-Team All-Pro players: 0 (0.0% - 5th) Pro Bowl players: 2 (3.6% - 2nd) Telvin Smith is the only member of this bunch to make a Pro Bowl as a linebacker, while D.J. Alexander made one as a special teams player for the Chiefs in 2016. There have been a few quality starters found here, including Brandon Marshall, Tahir Whitehead, A.J. Klein, Jayon Brown, Matt Milano, and current Jet Avery Williamson. The Jets are hoping that Blake Cashman can become the next success story. Of the 12 linebackers selected in 2019's fifth round, Cashman's total of 3 AV ranked fourth-best behind Dre Greenlaw, Cole Holcomb, and Mack Wilson. #8 - Running back (46.0% of games played) Picks: 32 Possible seasons: 171 Games played: 1,865 (46.0% of possible games - 5th) Approximate value: 243 (1.42 per season - 7th) First-Team All-Pro seasons: 0 (0.0% - 5th) Pro Bowl seasons: 3 (1.8% - 4th) Seasons as primary starter: 13 (7.6% - 11th) First-Team All-Pro players: 0 (0.0% - 5th) Pro Bowl players: 3 (9.4% - 1st) Jordan Howard, Jay Ajayi, and Anthony Sheman (as a fullback) each have made one Pro Bowl. Dion Lewis, Jacquizz Rodgers, Aaron Jones, and Chris Thompson are among the other hits. #7 - Center (45.5% of games played) Picks: 4 Possible seasons: 21 Games played: 153 (45.5% of possible games - 6th) Approximate value: 47 (2.24 per season - 2nd) First-Team All-Pro seasons: 0 (0.0% - 5th) Pro Bowl seasons: 0 (0.0% - 9th) Seasons as primary starter: 7 (33.3% - 2nd) First-Team All-Pro players: 0 (0.0% - 5th) Pro Bowl players: 0 (0.0% - 9th) With only four players chosen at the center position, it only took one success to bump the entire position up the ladder. Corey Linsley, the 161st selection in the 2014 Draft, has been Green Bay's starting center from day one. He has logged 86 regular season starts at center for the Packers, including all 16 in each of the past three. PFF has scored Linsley with an above-average grade in five of his six seasons. Scott Quessenberry, chosen by the Chargers in 2018, started Los Angeles' final nine games at center in 2019 after holding a reserve role over his first 23 games with the team. #6 - Wide receiver (43.2% of games played) Picks: 38 Possible seasons: 204 Games played: 1,410 (43.2% of possible games - 7th) Approximate value: 318 (1.56 per season - 5th) First-Team All-Pro seasons: 2 (1.0% - 2nd) Pro Bowl seasons: 4 (2.0% - 2nd) Seasons as primary starter: 35 (17.2% - 6th) First-Team All-Pro players: 1 (2.6% - 4th) Pro Bowl players: 1 (2.6% - 8th) Tyreek Hill is the crown jewel, responsible for all of the Pro Bowl and All-Pro appearances. Stefon Diggs is a Pro Bowl snub, while Marvin Jones and Kenny Stills have had solid careers as deep threats. The lone Jets pick in this crop checks in at No. 5 on the total AV list - Jeremy Kerley, who has totaled 23 AV with 270 receptions for 3,116 yards and 15 touchdowns. Darius Slayton (740 yards / 8 touchdowns) and Hunter Renfrow (605 / 4) enjoyed successful rookie seasons for the Giants and Raiders, respectively, in 2019. #5 - Offensive tackle (41.2% of games played) Picks: 24 Possible seasons: 133 Games played: 876 (41.2% of possible games - 8th) Approximate value: 264 (1.98 per season - 3rd) First-Team All-Pro seasons: 0 (0.0% - 5th) Pro Bowl seasons: 0 (0.0% - 9th) Seasons as primary starter: 29 (21.8% - 5th) First-Team All-Pro players: 0 (0.0% - 5th) Pro Bowl players: 0 (0.0% - 9th) The tackle position did not produce any stars out of the fifth round in the 2010s, but overall, it was a relatively average position in the fifth round. Marcus Cannon has spent nine seasons with the Patriots after being taken 138th overall in 2011, starting 80 regular season and playoff games. Ricky Wagner and Jordan Mills have been multi-year starters. Here are a couple of signs of how difficult it is to find talent at this stage of the draft. Jets selection Brandon Shell - who was a consistently poor starter for the team - is tied for sixth among this 22-player group with 16 AV. Oday Aboushi, a fifth round pick by the Jets in 2013, is eighth on the list with 13 AV, even though he has spent his entire career as a spot starter. #4 - Defensive back (38.1% of games played) Picks: 81 Possible seasons: 497 Games played: 3,028 (38.1% of possible games - 9th) Approximate value: 658 (1.32 per season - 8th) First-Team All-Pro seasons: 6 (1.2% - 2nd) Pro Bowl seasons: 13 (2.6% - 1st) Seasons as primary starter: 75 (15.1% - 7th) First-Team All-Pro players: 4 (4.9% - 2nd) Pro Bowl players: 5 (6.2% - 5th) The defensive back group comes in with strong star-producing numbers, boasting six First-Team All-Pro appearances and 13 Pro Bowl appearances among seven different players. Richard Sherman headlines the position with three First-Team All-Pro nods and five Pro Bowl appearances to his name. Kam Chancellor (four-time), Reshad Jones (two-time), Josh Norman (one-time) and Micah Hyde (one-time) make up the other eight Pro Bowls. Norman was also an All-Pro in 2015. Desmond King has not made a Pro Bowl, but he was a First-Team All-Pro in 2018. Jamal Agnew was also named a First-Team All-Pro as a returner in 2017. The man with the most career games played among this bunch is familiar to Jets fans - Buster Skrine, who has collected 139 regular season appearances since the Browns selected him 137th overall in 2011. Adrian Amos, Ricardo Allen, Damontae Kazee, and Tre Flowers are among the other hits. #3 - Defensive end Picks: 31 Possible seasons: 194 Games played: 1,048 (33.8% of possible games - 10th) Approximate value: 204 (1.05 per season - 10th) First-Team All-Pro seasons: 0 (0.0% - 5th) Pro Bowl seasons: 1 (0.5% - 8th) Seasons as primary starter: 18 (9.3% - 10th) First-Team All-Pro players: 0 (0.0% - 5th) Pro Bowl players: 1 (3.2% - 7th) This group has been largely unsuccessful. Matt Judon's 2019 Pro Bowl appearance was the first for the bunch. With an average of 7.1 sacks per season, Judon is the only player of the 31 who owns a career average of over 4.0 sacks per season. #2 - Guard (27.2% of games played) Picks: 28 Possible seasons: 165 Games played: 718 (27.2% of possible games - 11th) Approximate value: 176 (1.07 per season - 9th) First-Team All-Pro seasons: 0 (0.0% - 5th) Pro Bowl seasons: 0 (0.0% - 9th) Seasons as primary starter: 16 (9.7% - 9th) First-Team All-Pro players: 0 (0.0% - 5th) Pro Bowl players: 0 (0.0% - 9th) After posting strong success rates over the first three rounds, the guard position has seen the steepest drop-off of any position in the fourth and fifth rounds. In round five, there is very little success to be found out of the 28 selections. Two of the top four most productive names on the list have barely played any guard in the NFL. Marshall Newhouse is the top name with 41 AV and 81 starts, but he switched to tackle for his entire NFL career. New Jets center Connor McGovern is fourth with 16 AV. McGovern started out his career at guard, but found his stride after switching to center, where it appears he will be playing for the foreseeable future. The leader in AV outside of Newhouse would be Daniel Kilgore (24), who spent seven seasons with the 49ers in which he was mostly a backup (39 starts) and has spent the last two seasons on a porous Miami offensive line (17 starts). Even with that lackluster resume, Kilgore is easily the most accomplished guard to come out of the fifth round in the 2010s. One trend I am beginning to notice - if you want offensive line help in the draft, you have got to get it as early as possible. The decline for offensive line positions has tended to be more rapid than other positions. #1 - Quarterback (8.6% of games played) Picks: 13 Possible seasons: 66 Games played: 91 (8.6% of possible games - 12th) Approximate value: 23 (0.35 per season - 12th) First-Team All-Pro seasons: 0 (0.0% - 5th) Pro Bowl seasons: 0 (0.0% - 9th) Seasons as primary starter: 1 (1.5% - 12th) First-Team All-Pro players: 0 (0.0% - 5th) Pro Bowl players: 0 (0.0% - 9th) Yikes. The teams that made these picks would probably have rather done nothing at all than add the players that they did. Out of 66 possible seasons, only one season as a primary starter was logged, and that was solely because an Aaron Rodgers injury paved the way Brett Hundley to start nine games in 2017. Six of these 13 quarterbacks have never thrown a pass in the NFL. The seven who have - Hundley, John Skelton, T.J. Yates, A.J. McCarron, Kevin Hogan, and Nathan Peterman. Those players have a combined passer rating of 65.4, tossing 47 touchdowns and 71 interceptions. To wrap everything up, here are all of the fifth round numbers in one look. The lone player whose numbers are not included above would be long snapper Joe Cardona, a 2015 selection who has played in all 92 regular season and playoff games for New England since entering the league. Previous breakdowns: Round 1 Round 2 Round 3 Round 4