What will New York Jets WR Jamison Crowder’s stat-line look like in 2020?

Jamison Crowder set a career-high with a team-leading 41 receiving first downs in 2019. Can he soar even higher in 2020? In his first season with the Jets, Jamison Crowder established himself as Sam Darnold's go-to option in the passing game, leading the team with 122 targets (26 more than any other Jet). The wide receiver room has gone through some major changes. Robby Anderson is out the door, and at the moment, it appears Demaryius Thomas (still a free agent) will not be back, either. To fill their shoes, the Jets went out and added Breshad Perriman and Denzel Mims, while Josh Doctson, Vyncint Smith, and Braxton Berrios headline the competition for the final spots on the roster. While filled with explosive potential, it's still one of the thinnest groups of outside wide receivers in the game. What will this mean for Crowder in the slot? Will he shoulder an even heavier load than before? Or, will the Jets diversify their target distribution to avoid relying too heavily on their slot man? Let's dive into the numbers to set a ceiling, floor, and baseline prediction for Crowder's 2020 production. Optimistic projection Having already led the team in targets by a wide margin while also ranking third league-wide in targets among slot receivers, it's tough to imagine Crowder getting more involved than he already was. This is especially the case when you factor in the potential return of Chris Herndon, who should absorb a good chunk of targets. However, considering the uncertainty at wide receiver, it is possible that Crowder takes on a larger portion of the wide receiver targets than he did last year. With Anderson out, the wildly volatile Perriman taking his place, and a second-round rookie slated to play a big role, perhaps Crowder steals enough targets from the rest of the wide receivers to make up for the targets lost to Herndon. All of this is to say that an optimistic projection for Crowder's 2020 stat-line needs to include him staying around the same level of volume - which seems very possible given the circumstances. From there, the most important key to an improved 2020 for Crowder is efficiency. With his massive target load in 2019, Crowder was considerably less efficient on a per-target basis with the Jets than he was throughout his four years with the Redskins. Much of that had to do with the fact that the Jets' porous offensive line prevented the downfield game from developing, often forcing Crowder to become a checkdown option and thus limiting his production. If the Jets offensive line can improve to an adequate level, Crowder should be able to get back to the solid levels of efficiency he displayed in Washington. Here is what Crowder's 2020 stat-line would look like if he produced at his 2015-18 efficiency level with his 2019 volume. The Jets would certainly be thrilled if Crowder managed to put up these numbers. On the same number of targets as he received in 2019, Crowder would see boosts of 142 yards, four first downs, and four receptions if he produced on a per-target basis exactly as he did in Washington. Over 16 games, that total of 975 yards would land Crowder at 38th in yards per game on the 2019 leaderboard (60.9), a jump of 13 spots from where his actual average (52.1) landed him. The biggest difference for Crowder between his Redskins tenure and 2019 was his yards-per-reception average. Crowder dipped from 11.9 yards per reception in Washington to 10.7 in New York. That was largely due to a decline in the deep range. From 2016-18, Crowder caught 15-of-28 deep passes (20+ yards downfield) for 469 yards and five touchdowns. In 2019, he caught just 2-of-9 for 70 yards and one touchdown. That's a one-half slice in yards per target (16.8 to 7.8) and an approximately one-quarter slice in yards per game (16.8 to 4.4) despite a nearly even amount of targets per game (0.70 vs. 0.56). Crowder is unusually skilled at making plays downfield for a slot receiver, but the Jets did not reap those benefits in 2019. Darnold's struggles with deep accuracy - one of his most pressing weaknesses in his early career - left Crowder hanging a few times. Poor pass protection certainly didn't help things. Fortunately, Darnold showed progress in that area down the stretch in 2019, flashing promise that he could unleash Crowder's deep prowess in 2020. From Weeks 1-9 of 2019, Darnold ranked last out of 33 qualified quarterbacks with a 37.7 passer rating on deep throws. From Weeks 10-17, he ranked 10th out of 36 qualifiers with a 104.9 passer rating on deep throws. Just three or four more deep receptions throughout the season could be all that's needed to take Crowder's efficiency up to a new level. Another factor worth considering is that Crowder was even more involved when Darnold was healthy versus when he was not. In games with Darnold, Crowder averaged 8.3 targets, which would put him on pace for 133 over 16 games. Since we are being optimistic here, let's say Crowder maintained his Redskins efficiency over the total of 133 targets he was on pace for with Darnold. That would put Crowder's ceiling (over 16 games) at about 89 catches on 133 targets for 1,062 yards, 49 first downs, and six touchdowns. Already a top-10 slot receiver in 2019, following that campaign up with an 89/1,062/6 line would easily make a Crowder a top 3-5 pure slot receiver. Pessimistic Projection Let's say that Perriman and Mims burst onto the scene and prove capable of carrying the offense, while Herndon picks up where he left off and is heavily involved as the TE1. Perhaps those three factors would drop Crowder to about 70-80 targets, or 4-5 per game. If Crowder's raw volume numbers slipped for those reasons, it would be perfectly fine. His production decline would not be due to his own performance, but only because other players are stepping up to help the offense. That would be a great thing for the Jets. For any receiver to have a truly disappointing season, it all comes down to efficiency, regardless of the volume. If Crowder collects substantially fewer targets and receptions next season, that should be fine, so long as he is still producing efficiently on a per-target basis and is only seeing fewer targets because his teammates are playing well, not because he isn't getting open. Where the Jets would have a major problem is if Crowder is forced to be the team's go-to option due to a lack of emergence from other players, and he sinks the team with poor efficiency in that featured role. To set a reasonable floor, let's take Crowder's career-lows in each efficiency metric and drop them down a slight tick. His career-worsts: 6.8 yards per target (2019) 59.2% catch rate (2018) 30.6% first down rate (2018) 2.6% touchdown rate (2015) For the sake of setting a worst-case scenario, let's drop those marks down to 6.5, 57.0%, and 29.0%, respectively (we'll keep the touchdown rate at 2.6%). Over 122 targets, those rates would give Crowder a floor (over 16 games) of 72 catches on 122 targets for 732 yards, 35 first downs, and three touchdowns. The Jets will most likely have a very bad passing offense if that is what their No. 1 receiver produces. What if Crowder plays a less prominent role or struggles to get open? His career-low in targets per 16 games is 78. At that volume, if Crowder tumbled to those same lowly levels of efficiency listed above, he would post 44 catches on 78 targets for 507 yards, 23 first downs, and two touchdowns. Of course, we are only being pessimistic here. Crowder has never approached such low levels of efficiency (across all statistics in one season) in his career. Having consistently performed well in the unfavorable conditions he has faced in both Washington and New York, there is little reason to believe that a drastic decline is in his near future. These numbers are a doomsday scenario. Balanced prediction I think Crowder will see a slight dip in targets because of Herndon's return, but he should still be considered the favorite to lead the team in targets until Perriman and/or Mims can prove worthy of overtaking him. Additionally, if the Jets can improve offensively, they should run substantially more than their 28th-ranked total of 956 offensive plays, which would spread a few more targets around for everybody. The most reasonable projection for Crowder's target total in 2020 would be somewhere around 114 - a middle ground between his 16-game pace with Darnold (133) and his 16-game pace in Washington (94). Given that his efficiency numbers in 2019 were an outlier compared to his career norms and that the Jets will probably be at least slightly more competent on the offensive line, Crowder has a good chance to get back to his career averages efficiency-wise. On 114 targets with efficiency equal to his career averages, Crowder would post 76 catches on 114 targets for 875 yards, five touchdowns, and 41 first downs. If I had to make a prediction on his 2020 stat-line, that is where I would settle. What do you think Crowder will do in 2020?