Is Breshad Perriman an upgrade over Robby Anderson? | New York Jets 2020 primer

New York Jets wide receiver Breshad Perriman's career strengths and weaknesses as told by the advanced analytics and film. New York Jets training camp/2020 primers: Avery Williamson Blake Cashman Bless Austin Bradley McDougald Braxton Berrios Chris Herndon Connor McGovern Foley Fatukasi Greg Van Roten Jordan Jenkins Josh Doctson Nathan Shepherd Sam Ficken vs. Brett Maher Quincy Wilson Quinnen Williams Here's everything you need to know about Breshad Perriman as he enters 2020 looking to carry over his late-2019 breakout. Four positive stats to maintain Blistering finish to 2019 Over the final five weeks of 2019, Perriman ranked second among wide receivers in receiving yards (506), tied for first in receiving touchdowns (5), and tied for 11th in receptions (25), doing it all in a highly efficient fashion. Yards per target Perriman's volume of opportunities over the past two seasons has been small, but when targeted, he has delivered. With 985 receiving yards over 94 targets with the Browns and Buccaneers over the past two seasons, Perriman has averaged 10.5 yards per target since 2018. That ranks third-best out of 85 wide receivers with at least 90 targets over that span, trailing only Mike Williams (10.7) and Tyler Lockett (11.2). Downfield play-making Perriman's strong yards-per-target mark stems from his propensity for making plays deep down the field. Since 2018, he has accumulated 783 air yards over 52 receptions, leading all qualified wide receivers over that span with an average of 15.1 air yards per reception. Soft hands Over the past two seasons, Perriman has yanked in 52 receptions while being credited with only one drop. That gives him a drop rate of 1.9%, well below the 2019 positional average of 7.5%. Two negative stats to improve Ice cold over the first three months of 2019 Prior to his breakout in December, Perriman was struggling over nine appearances through Week 12. Of course, he had no chance of putting up huge volume numbers as he was stuffed behind Mike Evans and Chris Godwin on the depth chart, but the problem was that he did not produce at an efficient level on a per-play or per-target basis. Through Week 12, Perriman was tied for 87th among wide receivers in targets (32) but placed 109th in receptions (11) and 116th in receiving yards (139). This level of inefficiency hardly impacted Tampa Bay considering how small Perriman's role was over that span, but in the larger role that he will be playing with the Jets, such long stretches of poor efficiency could crush the offense. Severe lack of career production prior to last December Perriman's five-game hot stretch to close 2019 was the first intriguing stretch of his entire career since being drafted in 2015. Prior to that rampage, Perriman's absolute best five-game stretch came from Weeks 13-17 of 2018 with the Browns, in which he averaged 2.0 receptions for 51.8 yards. While Perriman posted 100-plus yards in each of his final three games this past season, those were the first three 100-yard games of his career. He had failed to record more than 87 yards in any of his first 48 career games and also failed to record more than four receptions in any of his first 46 games. Even when he has been given ample playing time, Perriman was regularly underperforming. Before his December run, Perriman had logged 13 career games in which he played at least 60% of his team's offensive snaps. He averaged 12.1 yards in those games on a grotesque 3.1 yards per target. The ceiling with Perriman is tantalizing, but his floor is equally terrifying. Three plays that showcase Perriman's ceiling The downfield game is Perriman's bread-and-butter. He has great long speed, is adept at contorting mid-air to make acrobatic catches, can adjust back to the ball, and has sticky hands that allow him to hang on through contact. Perriman's ability to haul in contested catches makes him an intriguing partner for Sam Darnold. The franchise quarterback is a noted gunslinger who feels comfortable with taking aggressive chances downfield, but he has not had an above-the-rim weapon who could consistently deliver in those situations (save for flashes from Chris Herndon in 2018). Perhaps Perriman is the man who unlocks the full potential of Darnold's fearlessness. On this go route, Perriman creates some separation, but Jameis Winston underthrows him. Perriman slams on the brakes and shoves the cornerback upfield with his inside arm, then brings his outside arm over the corner's shoulder to free himself up. It's a great example of subtle, legal physicality to create space. He makes the grab - snatching it with hands-only and without using his body - for a 37-yard gain. Perriman runs a deep post, but finds himself squeezed to the back of the end zone. After that, there's not much to say. He times his jump well, adjusts to the ball, snatches it with hands-only as the defender is draped on him, and gets two feet down. It's a showing of excellent concentration coupled with unique athleticism to create an amazing acrobatic grab. Perriman shows his technical ability as a vertical route-runner on this play. He continuously swats away the cornerback's hands to maintain space and avoid being squeezed to the sideline, and then climbs the ladder for a ridiculous catch over the corner's helmet. Three plays that showcase Perriman's floor Perriman's lack of production over the course of his career has had little to do with his actions at the catch point. He can go up and get it, that's for sure. His mistakes usually occur prior to the ball's arrival. On this go route against Tennessee's Cover-3, Perriman allows himself to be squeezed against the sideline and is unable to get over top of the cornerback to make a play on a reachable pass from Winston. Lined up slot left on this play, Perriman runs a poor curl route that allows the defender to make a deflection. His break is drawn-out and stocky. Once he commits to turning back towards the quarterback, he takes too many steps upfield until he gets around. Ideally, he needs to sit down at his spot and sharply whip around so he can shield off the defender and give the quarterback a clean target. On this route, Perriman's strides are too far out in front, leading to a delayed whip-around and too much depth, giving the defender a window to undercut the throw. On this quick slant, Perriman's shaky route-running technique results in a deflection on third-and-short. Give it a look, and then check out Jets X-Factor's own Joe Blewett's explanation of the play below. Here is Blewett's analysis of Perriman's issues on that play (from his film review of Perriman's game): "Another display of not so crisp route running from Perriman on this short inn-route. Perriman releases off of the line of scrimmage and stems at the corner before getting into his break. Perriman attempts to take a two-step break which is the correct break to take but it isn’t sharp. Perriman’s third step is his stop or brake step but he doesn’t sink his hips into it and it isn’t far enough in front of his body. After his stop-step, he throws his right foot slightly outside of his frame as his break step but its a little too shallow and not paired with an “elbow jam” from his left arm. This all leads to Perriman’s route being rounded at the break. After the break, Perriman needs to “flatten the route,” which would involve him working at a flat angle or even an angle towards the QB to attack the ball and/or make it an easier throw. Winston puts the ball in a bad spot regardless, but Perriman didn’t help him out on this rep." Make sure to check out Blewett's breakdown of Perriman's game for an extremely nuanced look at the subtle details he must improve to become a better route-runner - and thus a more consistently explosive player. Offensive usage Perriman was getting regular playing time throughout the season for Tampa Bay, but his role increased dramatically late in the year as the Buccaneers dealt with injuries to Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. Over his first 10 games, Perriman played about 54% of Tampa Bay's offensive snaps on average, and over his final four, he played about 90% on average. Perriman's three games from Weeks 15-17 were the first of his career in which he appeared on more than 85% of his team's offensive snaps, and he maximized his newfound starring role with 17 catches for 349 yards (116.3 per game) and four touchdowns over that span. On the season, Perriman lined up out wide on 482 snaps and in the slot on 156 - a 75.5% favoring for the outside. His left/right splits were very even; 328 snaps on the left (51.4%), 310 on the right (48.6%). Comparatively, Robby Anderson lined up on the outside for 80.5% of his snaps and on the left for 57.1% of his snaps - similar usage to Perriman, but a slight edge in versatility goes to the former Buccaneer. Here is a look at how Perriman's usage and production changed over his five-game hot streak. After appearing on 62.9% of the team's passing plays through Week 12, Perriman participated in 94.8% of the Buccaneers' passing plays from Weeks 13-17. With the increased volume came a complete reverse in efficiency. Earlier in the offseason, I took a deep dive into Perriman's career numbers to predict his most likely 2020 stat-line. Health/off-field Injuries have been a massive detriment throughout Perriman's career. He missed his entire 2015 rookie season and has missed at least two games in three of the past four seasons. He has played 51 out of 80 possible games over the course of his career (63.8%) and 35 out of 48 over the past three years (72.9%). Perriman failed to suit up for any preseason or regular season games in his 2015 rookie season due to a PCL injury. He was able to play all 16 regular season games in his second season, but he missed much of the offseason with an ACL injury that he suffered in OTAs. The 2017 campaign brought more offseason injury troubles for Perriman. He strained his hamstring in August and missed the entire preseason, recovering just in time for Week 1. Perriman missed one game with a concussion and was eventually benched for four games due to his abysmal performance, never appearing to be fully healthy throughout the season. Perriman only played 10 games in 2018, but it was not due to injury. After failing to make Baltimore's opening-week roster, he missed the first six games of the season as he spent time waiting for an opportunity. Washington added Perriman about two weeks after he was cut by Baltimore, but he lasted there for only five days. Three weeks after that, he was picked up by Cleveland and went on to play in the team's final 10 games. In 2019, Perriman missed Tampa Bay's fifth and sixth games with a hamstring injury, but he returned after the team's Week 7 bye. He did not appear on the Buccaneers' injury report a single time before or after those two missed games. Battle for depth chart positioning With Denzel Mims and Vyncint Smith battling injuries early in training camp, Perriman has zero competition for the No. 1 wide receiver spot on the outside. He is poised to take over the role that Robby Anderson played for the Jets last season - second in targets behind Jamison Crowder, but the clear top threat outside the numbers. In addition to Crowder, Perriman will also be competing for targets with Le'Veon Bell, Chris Herndon, and Ryan Griffin, so his target count may be relatively low for a top wideout. Expect him to average five-to-six targets per game (pace for 80-to-96 over 16 games). Contract/future Perriman signed a one-year, $6.4 million contract with the Jets. He is set to have the 38th-highest cap hit among wide receivers in 2020. There are few players in the NFL who fit the "boom-or-bust" tag more than Perriman. He flashed dominant potential over his most recent five games. His raw star-caliber talent pops off the screen. However, those high points make up a very small portion of his career body of work. Prior to last December, he had done almost nothing of note over nearly five seasons in the league. Anything is possible regarding how the Jets will view Perriman once the offseason rolls around. He could find himself in the doghouse or injured by mid-season, making him an obvious "pass" for Joe Douglas and leaving a huge need at wide receiver going into 2021. Or, he could forge an amazing bond with Sam Darnold that makes it a no-brainer for Douglas to re-sign him to a lucrative long-term deal. Strap yourself in tightly. The Breshad Perriman experience is going to be quite the roller-coaster. New York Jets training camp primers: Avery Williamson Blake Cashman Bless Austin Bradley McDougald Braxton Berrios Chris Herndon Connor McGovern Foley Fatukasi Greg Van Roten Jordan Jenkins Josh Doctson Nathan Shepherd Sam Ficken vs. Brett Maher Quincy Wilson Quinnen Williams