As many New York Jets fans root for their team to secure the top overall selection in the 2021 Draft, strength of schedule will be crucial.
With the team’s playoff hopes squashed long ago, a large portion of the Jets fanbase has turned its attention to the 2021 NFL Draft, hoping to see the Jets make this nightmare of a season worthwhile by clinching the right to select Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence with the first overall pick.
Unfortunately for Jets fans, there is no guarantee that the team’s historically awful start will result in the ultimate prize of Lawrence’s services. The 1-7 Jacksonville Jaguars are breathing down the Jets’ necks, entering Week 10 with seven straight losses, a remaining schedule that features seven teams with a winning record, and a banged-up starting quarterback.
This past Monday night was a crucial chapter in the Lawrence race. Facing their most favorable matchup left on the schedule, the Jets somehow managed to blow a 10-point fourth-quarter lead to the hapless Patriots, falling to 0-9 and maintaining a comfortable lead over Jacksonville.
The primary reason that many Jets fans were up in arms about potentially winning on Monday night was the fact that, as things currently stand, the Jets would lose a potential tiebreaker with the Jaguars for the top pick.
Ties for draft slots are broken by strength schedule (SOS) – the combined record of all 16 opponents (intra-division teams are counted twice) on each team’s schedule. The team with the softer schedule would take the higher pick.
Entering Week 10, the Jets’ 16 opponents have a combined win percentage of .591, highest in the NFL, while the Jaguars sit a few ticks lower at .554, fourth-highest in the league.
For Jets fans to truly feel comfortable about their team’s chances of acquiring one of the greatest quarterback prospects in league history, they need to see the Jets claim the SOS edge over the Jaguars.
Excluding games featuring the Jets and Jaguars themselves, there are 62 games over the final eight weeks that will have implications on the SOS battle between New York and Jacksonville.
With the schedules of both teams in mind, here are the outcomes that would help the Jets gain an edge over the Jaguars in the SOS race.
*- The most important games are marked with an asterisk. The outcomes of these games (assuming they are not ties) will represent a tilt of at least two games in either New York or Jacksonville’s favor.
Week 10
- Titans over Colts
- Lions over Washington
- Texans over Browns*
- Chargers over Dolphins
- Cardinals over Bills
- Saints over 49ers
- Ravens over Patriots*
Week 11
- Bengals over Washington
- Texans over Patriots* (largest possible impact: 2 games in each direction)
- Lions over Panthers
- Titans over Ravens
- Vikings over Cowboys
- Buccaneers over Rams
Week 12
- Texans over Lions
- Cardinals over Patriots
- Vikings over Panthers
- Titans over Colts
- Bengals over Giants
- Chargers over Bills*
- Falcons over Raiders
- Saints over Broncos
- Buccaneers over Chiefs
- Eagles over Seahawks
Week 13
- Ravens over Cowboys
- Titans over Browns*
- Steelers over Washington
- Bengals over Dolphins*
- Texans over Colts
- Giants over Seahawks
- Chargers over Patriots*
- Packers over Eagles
- 49ers over Bills
Week 14
- Rams over Patriots
- Vikings over Buccaneers
- Giants over Cardinals
- Bengals over Cowboys
- Texans over Bears
- Panthers over Broncos
- Colts over Raiders*
- Washington over 49ers
- Steelers over Bills*
- Ravens over Browns
Week 15
- Chargers over Raiders
- Washington over Seahawks
- Dolphins over Patriots
- Eagles over Cardinals
- Saints over Chiefs
- Texans over Colts
- Cowboys over 49ers
- Titans over Lions
- Packers over Panthers
- Broncos over Bills
Week 16
- Vikings over Saints
- Falcons over Chiefs
- Texans over Bengals
- Ravens over Giants
- Titans over Packers
- Chargers over Broncos
- Lions over Buccaneers
Week 17
- Chargers over Chiefs
- Steelers over Browns
- Dolphins over Bills
Happy tanking! (Chart below was updated following the conclusion of Week 12.)
