While they surprisingly still have a remote chance at pushing for the playoffs, the New York Jets have entered the “evaluation mode” portion of the 2024 season, for all intents and purposes.
One of the players who will be evaluated most closely is quarterback Aaron Rodgers.
The four-time MVP will turn 41 in December, and suffice it to say, he’s undergone a rocky season. At this point, it is not a no-brainer to say he deserves another go as the Jets’ starting quarterback in 2025. The Jets must use these next seven games to help them decide whether he has shown enough to warrant running it back with him in 2025 or if they would rather cut ties and move in a new direction.
Visit our New York Jets Analytics page to learn the advanced football numbers.
As we sit here 10 games into the 2024 season, one of these two options is the obvious answer if the Jets are honest with themselves about what they have seen on the field.
A recent chart shared by NFL analytics writer Scott Barrett displayed Rodgers in a terrifying location that should have the Jets leaning toward moving on. Barrett’s chart showed all quarterback seasons from 2021-24 (min. 275 dropbacks) sorted by their success in two categories: accuracy (based on catchable throw rate) and sack avoidance (based on pressure-to-sack rate).
Barrett shared the chart to highlight the struggles of rookie quarterback Caleb Williams, but those who are cursed to a life of following the Jets could not help but dig through the chart to locate Rodgers. And there he is, buried comfortably within the worst quadrant, sitting right beside… 2022 Marcus Mariota.
Also in Rodgers’ vicinity are 2023 Zach Wilson, 2023 Sam Howell, and 2021 Justin Fields. In fact, the 2023 version of Wilson had a higher catchable throw rate than Rodgers this year while having essentially the same pressure-to-sack rate, which is especially crucifying when considering that Wilson had a higher ADOT than Rodgers (7.9 versus 7.4).
If you are in the vicinity of those quarterbacks in two metrics designed to isolate the quarterback’s individual performance from his surroundings, it’s not a good sign, to say the least. At 40-going-on-41 and coming off an Achilles injury, it’s obvious that Rodgers is a shell of his former self. With Rodgers set to turn 42 years old in December 2025, it is difficult to envision him getting any better next year.
Rodgers is easy to sack and is not throwing with the sublime accuracy he was once known for. Unless he can forge a major turnaround in these categories over the next seven games, the Jets would be severely hamstringing their potential in 2025 if they brought him back.
