Where New York Jets’ Sam Darnold, Joe Flacco rank among NFL QBs in efficiency

Box score stats leave out a lot of crucial information. If we fix that problem by adding in essential data, how would the league's quarterbacks stack up? Passer rating (or quarterback rating, as it is sometimes called) is the most commonly used stat to compare quarterbacks against one another. It is an easy tool to use. Just put this guy's rating alongside that guy's rating and you can see who the better quarterback is. However, I think most of the football community does not realize how bare of a statistic passer rating is. It has numerous flaws. First off, a major part of the passer rating formula is completion percentage, an almost completely meaningless stat. Completing a pass does not mean anything in a vacuum. A completion could go for 99 yards or zero. All that matters is the overall production on a per-play basis. Completing 100% of passes means little if the quarterback averages 4.0 yards per attempt. Completing 50% of passes is perfectly acceptable if the quarterback averages 9.0 yards per attempt. Would you rather have a 50% shooter who only makes two-pointers or a 40% shooter who only makes threes? Would you rather have a .300 hitter who only hits singles or a .250 hitter who only hits doubles and homers? Completion percentage and stats like it are silly. There is a massive range of impact that a completion can have - they can even be negative - so giving a quarterback credit just for completing a pass without taking into account what they actually got out of it makes little sense. Give me Patrick Mahomes' 20th-ranked completion percentage (66.9%) and sixth-ranked yards per attempt rate (8.17) over Cam Newton's sixth-ranked completion percentage (68.8%) and 20th-ranked yards per attempt rate (7.38) all day. Secondly, passer rating does not include rushing production or sacks, two massive parts of a quarterback's game. Of the league's 35 quarterbacks with at least 100 passing attempts this season, rushing attempts and sacks have made up 14.5% of their total plays and 12.2% of the total yardage they have contributed to. That is a huge chunk of production left unaccounted for, especially for run-heavy quarterbacks like Kyler Murray and Lamar Jackson. The ability to produce first downs is among quite a few other aspects of quarterback play that passer rating does not account for. A two-yard pass can be positive if it moves the chains on fourth-and-2. A 20-yard pass can be relatively meaningless if it comes on third-and-30. These are things that fly under the radar in the box score. Look, I like passer rating for how easy it is to access and utilize. I refer to it a lot. If you are just looking to quickly make a simple comparison or get a one-number glimpse at a decent approximation of how well someone has produced, it's useful. But if you want to know the truth, you have to dig deeper. There are a few great advanced metrics out there that account for all of the things that passer rating does not. Football Outsiders' DVOA throws in contextual information such as down, distance, field position, score, time, and opponent quality to deduce the true value of every play. ESPN's QBR is an all-encompassing quarterback metric that accounts for many of the same things as DVOA while also tossing in factors like drops and pressure. While those metrics are fantastic, I wanted to look solely at the box score and figure out a way to get the absolute most out of the simple, raw data that is available. How would the quarterback leaderboard look if we included every important box score stat that is tracked? The four factors of passer rating are yards per attempt, completion percentage, passing touchdown percentage, and interception percentage. By mixing in stats such as passing first downs, rushing yards, rushing touchdowns, rushing attempts, rushing first downs, sacks, sack yards, and fumbles, I was able to improve the viability of those four core factors and concoct a much more accurate version of passer rating. Let's see where Sam Darnold and Joe Flacco rank when we take everything into account. Yards per play I'll break down each of the four factors in my revised passer rating metric before getting into the final pecking order. We begin with yards per play. I am a fan of old-fashioned yards per attempt (Y/A), but it leaves out yards from sacks and rushing yards. Sacks are more of a quarterback stat than an indication of offensive line play since most sacks can be avoided in one way or another. The offensive line is responsible for the total amount of pressure allowed - extremely important - but the sacks themselves tend to be a product of the quarterback's style. Ryan Fitzpatrick has played behind some bad lines, but his sack rate is usually low since he is a gunslinger who would rather chuck an ill-advised bomb than take a sack. Hence, his turnover propensity. On the other end of the spectrum, you have guys like Carson Wentz and Deshaun Watson who have taken a lot of sacks while attempting to extend plays. So, sacks are an important part of quarterback play and should be evaluated as such. Quarterbacks deserve blame for taking too many sacks and they also deserve credit for avoiding them. With yards per play, we throw in rushing yards and sack yards to get a look at the average amount of yards that each quarterback has produced across all of their plays, not just passing attempts. Here is a look at how the league's 35 qualified quarterbacks (100+ passing attempts) stack up in terms of yards per play. The results for Darnold and Flacco are telling. Formula: (passing yards + rushing yards - sack yards) divided by (passing attempts + rushing attempts + sacks) Darnold is ranked last in the NFL in standard yards per passing attempt with a mark of 5.47, and he is unable to move up any higher on this list as he checks in dead last with an average of 4.64 yards per play. While Darnold is averaging a sparkling 7.7 yards per carry this season, that is canceled out by his 9.0% sack rate, which is second-highest in the NFL. Flacco has not fared much better, ranking 31st with 5.38 yards per play. With only 1.7 rushing attempts per start, a modest rushing average of 4.0 yards per carry, and a relatively average sack rate of 5.5%, Flacco did not move at all from his 31st-ranked position in standard yards per passing attempt (6.33). First down rate Moving the sticks is a major part of the quarterback position, yet almost nobody talks about which quarterbacks are thriving and which ones are struggling at this part of the game. As with every metric in this revised look at passer rating, we are including all plays, not just passes. This edition of first down rate looks at total conversions - both passing and rushing - out of all passing attempts, rushing attempts, and sacks. Here is how everyone stacks up. Formula: (passing first downs + rushing first downs) divided by (passing attempts + rushing attempts + sacks) Darnold ranks last by a wide margin, producing a first down on barely over a quarter of his plays. The 2.26% difference between him and 34th-ranked Nick Foles is the largest gap between any two players on the list. If we look solely at passing first downs out of passing attempts, Darnold has thrown 49 conversions over 191 passes this season, a league-worst 25.65%. That is a margin of -11.07% versus the current 2020 league average of 36.72% - on pace to be the worst margin ever posted by a qualified starting quarterback since 1994, which as far back as passing first down totals are available. Once again, Flacco fares better, but not by much. He ranks 33rd with a 28.7% rate. Touchdown rate Typical passer rating includes the percentage of passing attempts in which the quarterback threw a touchdown. We expand upon that here by throwing in rushing touchdowns, giving us a look at the percentage of all plays in which the quarterback produced a touchdown. Formula: (passing touchdowns + rushing touchdowns) divided by (passing attempts + rushing attempts + sacks) At last, Darnold finishes ahead of somebody! Alex Smith takes the basement position with a minuscule rate of 0.85%, tossing one touchdown and rushing for none over 117 total plays. Darnold has accumulated three passing touchdowns and one rushing touchdown over 228 plays. He did not record a touchdown in either of his two most recent starts. Flacco ranks way up at 26th with a 3.48% rate, launching four touchdowns and rushing for none over 115 plays. Interception/fumble rate Minimizing fumbles is a crucial part of a quarterback's job, and yet, passer rating does not include it. Our group of 35 qualified quarterbacks has combined for 121 fumbles this season, a mark that is greater than half of their total of 206 interceptions. We are looking at all fumbles here, even ones recovered by the offense. Whether or not a fumble ends up as a turnover or not is a matter of complete luck. Here is how the group stacks up according to the percentage of their plays in which they either threw an interception or fumbled. The Jets have not been awful in the turnover department this season. They have given the ball away on 10.4% of their drives, which ranks only ranks 14th-worst in the league (where should we hang up at the banner at MetLife?). Flacco has protected the ball well, ranking 13th with an interception/fumble rate of 2.61%. Darnold ranks 21st at 3.07%. Revised passer rating It's time to bring all four metrics together. My revised passer rating values yards per play and first down rate at 35% of the final score apiece while touchdown rate and interception/fumble rate are valued at 15% each. This way, we are placing a higher premium on the metrics that have a much greater volume of data. The rating is normalized so that the average number is 94.1, equal to the group's average actual passer rating. Here it is - New Adjusted NFL Quarterback Impressiveness Approximation - or NANIA (I know, I know. We'll come up with a better name when we revisit this in the offseason.) For comparison, I also listed each quarterback's actual passer rating. Unfortunately, even with plenty of new information added in, Darnold still ranks last in NANIA, right behind Drew Lock, just as is the case on the actual passer rating leaderboard. Flacco jumps one spot from 29th in passer rating to 28th in NANIA. A few quarterbacks made major moves on the NANIA leaderboard compared to the actual passer rating leaderboard. The biggest jumps were made by Kyler Murray (11 spots), Ryan Fitzpatrick (8 spots), Cam Newton (6 spots), Dak Prescott (5 spots), Ryan Tannehill (4 spots), and Baker Mayfield (4 spots). The steepest slides were made by Derek Carr (13 spots), Drew Brees (8 spots), Ben Roethlisberger (7 spots), Lamar Jackson (6 spots), and Tom Brady (5 spots). Here is a one-shot look at everything. No matter how you slice it, Darnold has had an absolutely brutal year from a production standpoint, marking a surprising downfall for a talented young player who entered the season filled with untapped potential. As his resume stands right now, there is no way the Jets can rationalize building around Darnold instead of taking a fresh new face at the top of the draft. Darnold's time as the Jets' franchise quarterback is running out. He needs to return to the field as soon as possible and improve these numbers to defend his stature in the organization. Once he does get back, he must be great - not fine or decent - to dig himself out of this hole. Read more on Sam Darnold's performance this season at Nania's Darnold Grades.