Grading every play from New York Jets QB Sam Darnold: Week 12 vs. Miami Dolphins

Michael Nania grades every play from Sam Darnold's performance against the Miami Dolphins. How well did he actually perform? Each week this season, I have been grading every one of the Jets' starting quarterback's plays from his most recent game to get a 0-to-100 grade on the quality of his performance. After Joe Flacco took his place over the prior two games (and played rather decently), Sam Darnold made his return against the Dolphins this past Sunday. Let's analyze his play throughout the afternoon to get a feel for his true level of play. Sam Darnold Grades Week 1 at Buffalo Bills Week 2 vs. San Francisco 49ers Week 3 at Indianapolis Colts Week 4 vs. Denver Broncos Joe Flacco - Week 5 vs. Arizona Cardinals Joe Flacco – Week 6 at Miami Dolphins Week 7 vs. Buffalo Bills Week 8 at Kansas City Chiefs Joe Flacco - Week 9 vs. New England Patriots Joe Flacco - Week 11 at Los Angeles Chargers Nania's Darnold Grades home page (links to all 2019-20 games) Grades Explained Digging through the All-22 film, I went back and graded every play (pass attempt, sack, rushing attempt) Darnold logged in the game, scoring each on a scale of 0-to-10 (5 representing an average play). Anything and everything is taken into account. Ball placement. Should-be turnovers. Unlucky turnovers. Protection quality. Play-calling effectiveness. The number of open targets available and their locations on the field relative to the quarterback. Impact of the route-running and ball-tracking by the intended receiver. Down and distance. Field position. Game situation. Every layer of decision-making is considered. Did Darnold choose the best available option? Did he scan the field to check all possible options? Did he take an over-aggressive shot when a first down was available underneath? Did he check down too early with a potential big play open down the field? Should he have tucked-and-run? Did he take a sack he should not have? Should he have thrown the ball away? Was there absolutely no option available for him to pick up yards, excusing a lack of production? Simple statistics do not account for any of those factors. Using a manual, play-by-play grading system, many crucial variables that usually go overlooked are being properly valued. Sprinkle in this essential context, and we get a grade that is much more representative of the quarterback's true performance level than standard box score numbers. Darnold's final scores are scaled from 0-to-100, with 50 representing the approximate league average (based on the analysis of other quarterbacks). Glossary Here is a glossary of my personally-tracked statistics, as well as some context to help you understand what good and bad numbers look like. Overall grade: 0-to-100 grade based on the average score of all plays analyzed. (Average: 50, Max: 100, Minimum: 0) Plays: Number of plays graded. Positive plays: Number of plays graded above 5.0: above-average efforts. (Average: 50%, Phenomenal: >60%, Awful: 40%) Positive/negative ratio: Positive plays divided by negative plays: a measure of consistency. (Average: 1.80, Phenomenal: 3.00+, Awful: <1.00) Average positive: The average score of all positive plays (scored above 5). An indicator of how high the quarterback's peaks were — a higher score indicates a great rate of splash plays, a lower score indicates some combination of a low number of big-time plays, many easy throws created by the supporting cast, or teammates bailing out the quarterback on subpar throws. (Average: 5.90, Phenomenal: 6.00+, Awful: <5.80) Average negative: The average score of all negative plays (scored below 5). An indicator of how low the quarterback's valleys were — a higher score indicates few catastrophic mistakes and/or lost plays tending to be more the supporting cast's fault than the quarterback's, while a lower score indicates that the quarterback's mistakes were generally very bad and that lost plays tended to be largely his own fault. (Average: 3.80, Phenomenal: 4.00+, Awful: 12%, Awful: 12%) Let's dig in. We'll get into my numbers on Darnold's game against Miami, compare my findings to his advanced metrics and box score statistics, and break down his best and worst plays on film. To kick things off, here is my comprehensive 0-to-100 grade on Darnold's performance against the Dolphins. Overall Grade I scored Darnold with a grade of 26.1. That ranks 26th out of his 33 career games. He has now scored below a 40.0 in five of his seven games this season and below a 30.0 in four of his seven games. His season grade sits at 30.3, a steep decline from his 46.6 in 2019 and 45.6 in 2018. Tracking Stats Here is a breakdown of my grading. Check out the glossary above for explanations. Plays: 34 (26th of 33 career games) Positive plays: 16 (22nd) Negative plays: 12 (13th-fewest) Positive/negative ratio: 1.33 (16th) – (Average: 1.80, Phenomenal: 3.00+, Awful: 60%, Awful: 40%) Average positive: 5.80 (23rd) – (Average: 5.90, Phenomenal: 6.00+, Awful: 12%, Awful: 12%) Darnold started off playing great football throughout the majority of the first half, but everything turned on a dime with just over two minutes left in the second quarter. Following one huge mistake late in the first half, Darnold's performance went completely down the drain as he made one baffling mistake after the next. Darnold's increased propensity for mind-boggling blunders this season has been strange to watch. Each of the three worst average negative scores of his career have come this season. Four of his seven worst career games in terms of the percentage of his plays that I graded a three-or-worse have come in 2020. I have graded Darnold at a three-or-worse on 16.1% of his plays this season, nearly double his 2019 rate of 8.6%. Even as a rookie in 2018, that rate was at 9.0% (9.8% prior to his hot four-game finish). Those are subpar rates that he needed to bring down in order to fulfill his potential. Instead, he has somehow pushed that number up to an entirely new stratosphere this year. Box Score Stats Here is a look at Darnold's box score stats. 16/27 (59.3%), 197 yards (7.3 Y/A), 0 touchdowns, 2 interceptions. 3 sacks for 24 yards. 2 rushes for 9 yards. Passer rating (NFL avg ~95.0): 51.0 Darnold career rank: 27th of 33 Week 12 NFL rank: 22nd of 29 Net yards per attempt (includes sack yardage, NFL avg ~6.5): 5.8 Darnold career rank: 14th of 33 Week 12 NFL rank: 15th of 29 Darnold put up a season-high 7.3 yards per attempt, which matches the NFL average this season, but he took three sacks for 24 yards, two of which were very avoidable. His net yards per attempt average of 5.8 is also a season-high, yet it still falls well short of the league average. If Darnold maintains his current pace of 31.1 pass attempts per game over the next five weeks, he will throw 373 passes this season. Throughout NFL history, no non-rookie quarterback has had a season with at least 350 pass attempts in which he posted a worse passer rating compared to league average than Darnold currently is. Darnold owns a passer rating of 64.0 in a 2020 season where the league average is 93.4. In other words, Darnold is on track for maybe the worst statistical season relative to league average that we have ever seen from a qualified starting quarterback. Advanced Stats For comparison, here is a look at how Darnold's performance was evaluated by a few of the advanced metrics out there. ESPN Raw QBR: Total Quarterback Rating (0-100 with 50 average): 22.4 Darnold career rank: 24th of 33 Week 12 NFL rank: 25th of 29 Pro Football Focus Grade (NFL avg ~73.0): 47.7 Darnold career rank: 24th of 33 Week 12 NFL rank: 25th of 29 Adjusted completion percentage (NFL avg ~76.0%)*: 66.7% Darnold career rank: 25th of 33 Week 12 NFL rank: 23rd of 29 *- accounts for drops, throwaways, spikes, etc, league average ~75% The advanced metrics were in almost unanimous agreement on where this one stacked up for Darnold. It was one of the worst performances of Week 12, yet it was still better than eight or nine of Darnold's career performances. Support Here is a look at some numbers regarding the support Darnold received in the game. Percentage of dropbacks under pressure (NFL avg ~30%): 34.4% Darnold career rank: 10th-lowest of 33 Week 12 NFL rank: 18th-lowest of 29 The protection was actually decent in this one. Much of the pressure allowed on Darnold was actually his own fault for not getting the ball out earlier or scrambling out instead of up. Pro Football Focus charged a team-high three pressures to Darnold. If you take those out, his pressure rate would drop to a sublime 25.0%. Average starting field position (NFL avg ~28.5): Own 32.5 Teammate yards per rush attempt: 3.7 Drops, throwaways, batted passes, hit while throwing: 2, 0, 0, 0 The Jets defense set up Darnold and the offense with two drives in Miami territory in the second half, but they could not capitalize on either one. The offense also got to start three more drives beyond their own 30-yard line, and those culminated in two interceptions and a punt. What makes Darnold's 2020 collapse so puzzling is that the support excuses are hardly there anymore. The protection and skill positions have been fine this season, which is an improvement over the terrible infrastructure that was around him over the past two seasons. He has been put in a much more favorable position to succeed than in 2018 or 2019. Best plays 3RD & 9 AT NYJ 45 (Q1, 11:50) – MIA 0, NYJ 0 Darnold made some excellent throws in the first half. On the game's opening drive, he showcases beautiful anticipation and ball placement on this deep corner route to Breshad Perriman for 37 yards. 1ST & 10 AT NYJ 25 (Q2, 8:56) – MIA 10, NYJ 3 On this crossing route by Perriman, Darnold beats tight coverage with a well-placed throw that is high-and-away where Perriman can reach out to snag it, but Perriman drops it. Great placement and velocity by Darnold. 3RD & 9 AT NYJ 8 (Q2, 4:05) – MIA 13, NYJ 3 Denzel Mims runs a stop route into the flat, but appears to quickly improvise and adjust his route over the middle. Darnold stays patient against the blitz - which is very well picked up by the offense - and waits for Mims to clear the linebacker, placing the ball in a spot where Mims can run through it in stride and continue down the field. Worst plays 3RD & 3 AT NYJ 45 (Q2, 2:04) – MIA 13, NYJ 3 Prior to this play, Darnold was on track for a great game. But from this point onward, he was an absolute mess. As Robby Sabo broke down in great detail, this play is downright abysmal. Jamison Crowder runs a wheel out of the backfield and breaks wide open for a touchdown. Darnold stares him down from a tremendously cushy pocket, but for whatever reason, decides not to pull the trigger. He tucks the ball and scrambles for a first down. On TV, this play looked great, but when you see what Darnold was looking at, it becomes clear that this is a massive negative. 3RD & 8 AT MIA 32 (Q3, 11:05) – MIA 13, NYJ 3 Both of Darnold's interceptions were completely inexcusable, lacking any elements worthy of warranting sympathy. This is the first interception, and it features numerous mistakes. Firstly, Darnold misses Mims (highlighted) coming wide open across the middle. Why? Because he decides to break the pocket and run towards the sideline instead of stepping up, cutting the field in half. This is an example of Darnold making himself look like he's under more duress than he actually is. All Darnold has to do is step up into the available space in front of him and hit Mims for at least a few yards and maybe a first down. He fails to do that. At this point, with no good options available and the Jets on the edge of field goal range on third-and-long, Darnold should throw the ball away and take the opportunity at three points, but he forces the ball to a double-covered Crowder. Easy pick. Brutal quarterbacking all-around. 2ND & 8 AT NYJ 26 (Q4, 6:26) – MIA 20, NYJ 3 Mims (highlighted) wins on a slant from the left side and is open over the middle, but Darnold never looks in that direction. Darnold fixates only on Perriman's out route from the right slot. Perriman is clearly not going to be open, as Xavien Howard has him blanketed and is positioned with outside leverage. Darnold looks to pull the trigger, but hesitates, likely knowing in the back of his mind that he shouldn't try this throw, but he continues with it anyway. After pausing mid-motion, Darnold proceeds to complete the throwing motion without resetting, tossing the ball from a completely flat base with no lower-body movement whatsoever. The ball is placed way too far inside and flies straight into the hands of Howard for a pick. Glaring indecisiveness and broken confidence on display here. Summary Despite a legitimately excellent start, Darnold's mistakes throughout the latter portion of this game were egregious enough to far outweigh the positive aspects of his performance. He continues to make alarmingly atrocious mistakes at a frequency that is simply too high for a starting quarterback in the NFL, especially this modern-day edition of the league where quarterbacks are more consistent than ever before. It's been shocking to watch Darnold's regression. For all of his faults throughout his first two seasons, Darnold was never this bad. He has taken one of the biggest steps backward the league has ever seen from a quarterback this early in his career. Becoming the first Jets quarterback to go four straight games without a touchdown pass since Geno Smith in his 2013 rookie season, Darnold's chances to save his status as the Jets' franchise quarterback may be spent. He does have five games left to prove himself, but even if he is elite in all of them, is five games a large enough sample size to invest in? On Sunday, Darnold and the Jets will host a Raiders team traveling cross-country with a defense that is allowing the most points per drive (2.77) in the NFL. That's about as favorable of a matchup as you can ask for. If Darnold cannot put up an elite performance against them, his odds of returning to the Jets in 2021 will fade to near-zero (if they haven't already). Sam Darnold Grades Week 1 at Buffalo Bills Week 2 vs. San Francisco 49ers Week 3 at Indianapolis Colts Week 4 vs. Denver Broncos Joe Flacco - Week 5 vs. Arizona Cardinals Joe Flacco – Week 6 at Miami Dolphins Week 7 vs. Buffalo Bills Week 8 at Kansas City Chiefs Joe Flacco - Week 9 vs. New England Patriots Joe Flacco - Week 11 at Los Angeles Chargers Nania's Darnold Grades home page (links to all 2019-20 games)