Grading every play from New York Jets QB Sam Darnold: Week 16 vs. Cleveland Browns

Michael Nania grades every play from Sam Darnold's performance against the Cleveland Browns. How well did he actually perform? Each week this season, I have been grading every one of the New York Jets' starting quarterback's plays from his most recent game to get a 0-to-100 grade on the quality of his performance. Although the Jets picked up their second consecutive win, Sam Darnold had a ho-hum outing, completing 16 of 32 passes for 175 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions (although multiple passes were very nearly intercepted) against a Browns defense that currently ranks 25th against the pass according to DVOA. How well did Darnold truly play? Was he really an Alex Smith-esque game manager who checked the ball down too much and left potential big plays on the field? Or was he let down by his supporting cast, simply taking the best of what was made available to him? Let's analyze the nuances of Darnold's play throughout his game against the Browns to get a feel for his true impact level beyond the box score. Sam Darnold Grades Week 1 at Buffalo Bills Week 2 vs. San Francisco 49ers Week 3 at Indianapolis Colts Week 4 vs. Denver Broncos Joe Flacco - Week 5 vs. Arizona Cardinals Joe Flacco – Week 6 at Miami Dolphins Week 7 vs. Buffalo Bills Week 8 at Kansas City Chiefs Joe Flacco - Week 9 vs. New England Patriots Joe Flacco - Week 11 at Los Angeles Chargers Week 12 vs. Miami Dolphins Week 13 vs. Las Vegas Raiders Week 14 at Seattle Seahawks Week 15 at Los Angeles Rams Nania's Darnold Grades home page (links to all 2019-20 games) Grades Explained Digging through the All-22 film, I went back and graded every play (pass attempt, sack, rushing attempt) Darnold logged in the game, scoring each on a scale of 0-to-10 (5 representing an average play). Anything and everything is taken into account. Ball placement. Should-be turnovers. Unlucky turnovers. Protection quality. Play-calling effectiveness. The number of open targets available and their locations on the field relative to the quarterback. Impact of the route-running and ball-tracking by the intended receiver. Down and distance. Field position. Game situation. Every layer of decision-making is considered. Did Darnold choose the best available option? Did he scan the field to check all possible options? Did he take an over-aggressive shot when a first down was available underneath? Did he check down too early with a potential big play open down the field? Should he have tucked-and-run? Did he take a sack he should not have? Should he have thrown the ball away? Was there absolutely no option available for him to pick up yards, excusing a lack of production? Simple statistics do not account for any of those factors. Using a manual, play-by-play grading system, many crucial variables that usually go overlooked are being properly valued. Sprinkle in this essential context, and we get a grade that is much more representative of the quarterback's true performance level than standard box score numbers. Darnold's final scores are scaled from 0-to-100, with 50 representing the approximate league average (based on the analysis of other quarterbacks). Glossary Here is a glossary of my personally-tracked statistics, as well as some context to help you understand what good and bad numbers look like. Overall grade: 0-to-100 grade based on the average score of all plays analyzed. (Average: 50, Max: 100, Minimum: 0) Plays: Number of plays graded. Positive plays: Number of plays graded above 5.0: above-average efforts. (Average: 50%, Phenomenal: >60%, Awful: 40%) Positive/negative ratio: Positive plays divided by negative plays: a measure of consistency. (Average: 1.80, Phenomenal: 3.00+, Awful: <1.00) Average positive: The average score of all positive plays (scored above 5). An indicator of how high the quarterback's peaks were — a higher score indicates a great rate of splash plays, a lower score indicates some combination of a low number of big-time plays, many easy throws created by the supporting cast, or teammates bailing out the quarterback on subpar throws. (Average: 5.90, Phenomenal: 6.00+, Awful: <5.80) Average negative: The average score of all negative plays (scored below 5). An indicator of how low the quarterback's valleys were — a higher score indicates few catastrophic mistakes and/or lost plays tending to be more the supporting cast's fault than the quarterback's, while a lower score indicates that the quarterback's mistakes were generally very bad and that lost plays tended to be largely his own fault. (Average: 3.80, Phenomenal: 4.00+, Awful: 12%, Awful: 12%) Let's dig in. We'll get into my numbers on Darnold's game against Cleveland, compare my findings to his advanced metrics and box score statistics, and break down his best and worst plays on film. To kick things off, here is my comprehensive 0-to-100 grade on Darnold's performance against the Browns: Overall Grade I scored Darnold with a grade of 33.9. That ranks seventh-best out of his 11 games in 2020. For his career, it ranks 25th out of his 37 games. It is closest in quality to his game against the Seahawks a couple of weeks ago (34.5). Darnold struggled in this one, not managing the game as effectively as he did against the Rams in Week 15. He took a hefty amount of pressure and made quite a few mistakes under said pressure, particularly struggling with his downfield accuracy (2 for 10, with the two completions being wide open) from some pockets that were slightly congested but typically still offered enough space to get the job done. Darnold played with a largely conservative mentality, often checking the ball down when there were better options available further down the field. Sometimes, there were open lanes available to scramble and extend the play - as he once thrived at doing - but he instead opted to throw the ball away or check it down. In the middle portion of this performance, Darnold settled in nicely and consistently executed the best available option even if the throws were generally short and easy. From late in the first quarter to midway through the third, he played the "game manager" role well, limiting mistakes and keeping the ball moving efficiently. However, near the beginning and end of the game, Darnold tossed a few dangerous near-interceptions, made some overly conservative decisions that cost the team yardage, and missed on open deep throws, wiping out the value of his decent output in the middle part of the game. Tracking Stats Here is a breakdown of my grading. Check out the glossary above for explanations. Plays: 38 (15th of 37 career games) Positive plays: 16 (23rd) Negative plays: 14 (20th-fewest) Positive/negative ratio: 1.14 (25th) – (Average: 1.80, Phenomenal: 3.00+, Awful: 60%, Awful: 40%) Average positive: 5.61 (36th) – (Average: 5.90, Phenomenal: 6.00+, Awful: 12%, Awful: 12%) The number that jumps out most from my tracking of Darnold's performance is his average positive score of 5.61, the second-lowest of his career ahead of only his 2018 performance in Miami (5.50). What this signifies is that the positive plays Darnold made in this game largely tended to be modest in difficulty and impressiveness. Only two throws really stood out to me - both of which we will take a look at later - and outside of those two, all he could do was check the ball down and capitalize on wide-open targets. Checking the ball down and capitalizing on wide-open targets can lead to a solid performance if you deliver at a high level of consistency (see Darnold's Chiefs and Rams games), but Darnold did not do that, squandering too many downfield chances and tossing too many possible interceptions for this to be considered a good outing of game management. As evidenced by his positive/negative ratio of 1.14, Darnold was not nearly consistent enough to make up for his lack of big-time plays and propensity for big mistakes (five plays scored at a 3 or worse). Box Score Stats Here is a look at Darnold's box score stats. 16/32 (50.0%), 175 yards (5.5 Y/A), 2 touchdowns, 0 interceptions. 2 sacks for 16 yards. 7 rushes for 20 yards (4 for 23 excluding kneel-downs). Passer rating (NFL avg ~95.0): 87.4 Darnold career rank: 14th of 37 Week 16 NFL rank: 19th of 33 Net yards per attempt (includes sack yardage, NFL avg ~6.5): 4.7 Darnold career rank: 26th of 37 Week 16 NFL rank: 28th of 33 Darnold put up poor yardage numbers in this game, which are relatively accurate regarding his performance based on what I saw on film. The box score actually overrated him in the TD/INT column, as the two touchdowns he threw were completely uncovered and he was very lucky to escape the game with no turnovers, nearly losing a fumble and hitting Cleveland defenders on the hands multiple times. Advanced Stats For comparison, here is a look at how Darnold's performance was evaluated by a few of the advanced metrics out there. ESPN Raw QBR: Total Quarterback Rating (0-100 with 50 average): 37.1 Darnold career rank: 19th of 37 Week 16 NFL rank: 26th of 33 Pro Football Focus Grade (NFL avg ~75.0): 58.8 Darnold career rank: 22nd of 37 Week 16 NFL rank: 21st of 33 Adjusted completion percentage (NFL avg ~76.0%)*: 68.0% Darnold career rank: 28th of 37 Week 16 NFL rank: 26th of 33 *- accounts for drops, throwaways, spikes, etc The advanced numbers all agree that this was a rough one for Darnold. Darnold's ghastly 50.0% completion rate undersells him a little bit, as he threw the ball away six times, but even when you account for his throwaways and other disruptions, Darnold's accuracy was still well below average. Support Here is a look at some numbers regarding the support Darnold received in the game. Percentage of dropbacks under pressure (NFL avg ~30%): 45.9% Darnold career rank: 11th-highest of 37 Week 16 NFL rank: 3rd-highest of 33 Darnold was under quite a bit of pressure in this one. However, he did have a decent amount of time to get rid of the ball, spending an average of 2.87 seconds in the pocket, which ranked 10th-highest this week. That mark is equal to Darnold's average on the entire 2020 season, which ranks ninth-highest out of 34 qualifiers this year. Average starting field position (NFL avg ~28.5): Own 36.3 Teammate yards per rush attempt: 4.1 Drops, throwaways, batted passes, hit while throwing: 1, 6, 0, 1 For the second straight game, the Jets offense received great field position. They started two drives on Cleveland's side of the field and one at the 50-yard line. The run game was solid, with Darnold's teammates picking up 4.1 yards per carry. Jamison Crowder, Breshad Perriman, and Ty Johnson provided 33 yards on four carries (8.3 average), while Frank Gore and La'Mical Perine combined for 78 yards on 23 carries (3.4 average). Darnold tossed the ball away a whopping six times. Most of those were warranted, but he arguably could have made something happen on a couple of them. His receivers were credited with only one drop, while he had one pass broken up by a hit from Myles Garrett (which probably should have been ruled a lost fumble, although that play was not Darnold's fault due to the pressure's quick arrival). Best plays 2ND & 10 AT NYJ 26 (Q1, 13:59) – NYJ 0, CLE 0 Darnold notices Perriman with a one-on-one matchup on a go route against Denzel Ward with no safety help, so he takes the shot. Darnold places the ball well for Perriman to high-point it, but Ward makes a fantastic play to knock it loose. A good ball from Darnold nonetheless. 1ST & 10 AT NYJ 10 (Q2, 8:26) - NYJ 13, CLE 3 Quickly pressured from both sides (Myles Garrett vs. Chris Herndon and Mekhi Becton on the left and Olivier Vernon vs. George Fant on the right), Darnold notices a sea of space open up in front of him and makes the correct decision to tuck-and-run. Instead of sliding, he finishes with a mean truck, plowing over the linebacker and picking up 11 yards for the first down. 2ND & 7 AT NYJ 28 (Q3, 14:24) - NYJ 13, CLE 3 Outstanding throw on the move from Darnold here, squeezing the ball to Herndon in-between two defenders while rolling to his left. Needle-threader. Worst plays 1ST & 10 AT NYJ 26 (Q1, 14:03) – NYJ 0, CLE 0 Darnold looks to get the ball to Mims on a curl route to the field side while under pressure, but places the ball a bit too far outside, nearly getting picked off by Terrance Mitchell. 1ST & 10 AT CLE 47 (Q1, 6:36) – CLE 3, NYJ 0 Darnold looks for Crowder on a crossing route, but overthrows him, nearly getting picked off on the ricochet. 1ST & 10 AT NYJ 34 (Q1, 2:53) – CLE 3, NYJ 0 This is not necessarily a terrible play, but it's yardage left on the field, and a good representation of the overall theme of this performance. Despite the 9-yard completion, there are a couple of problems here. Darnold goes to Crowder underneath, but Denzel Mims is uncovered further down the field for more yardage. It's an example of Darnold taking the more conservative option in a situation where he doesn't have to. Watching this become an issue for Darnold has been a curious development. Over his first two seasons, Darnold's issue was being too aggressive. Now, he tends to be too conservative. In addition, Darnold's throw to Crowder is a bit late and too far inside, forcing Crowder to break stride, eliminating any potential for him to make a play after the catch. This poor placement allows the defender to immediately tackle Crowder short of the first down marker, costing the Jets a first down. With an earlier throw placed in a spot where Crowder could catch it and turn upfield, he could have picked up the first down and more. 3RD & 7 AT CLE 32 (Q3, 5:53) – NYJ 20, CLE 3 Darnold comes close to getting picked off once again. Going to Crowder was the right move here, but with the robber safety lurking over the middle, Darnold had to get this ball out earlier. The ball should have been coming out of his hands as soon as Crowder made his break. Darnold read Crowder from the very start, and with the linebacker immediately opening his hips to the outside, Darnold had plenty of time to recognize Crowder would win and accordingly make the anticipatory throw. Instead, Darnold hesitates as soon as he feels a little bit of possible pressure (which doesn't actually arrive), resulting in him releasing the ball too late. The slight hesitation is what buys time for the safety to break up the pass and nearly pick it off. 1ST & 10 AT NYJ 18 (Q4, 12:32) – NYJ 20, CLE 16 On the left side, Mims breaks open on a slant, but Darnold never reads that side of the field, quickly checking the ball down to Crowder for a 2-yard gain despite decent protection. 2ND & 9 AT NYJ 36 (Q4, 5:38) – NYJ 20, CLE 16 Darnold looks Perriman's way from the jump. Perriman separates on a quick slant, and Darnold pulls the trigger, but he misfires, placing the ball way too far out in front and hitting Denzel Ward on the hands for another near-interception. This ball has to hit Perriman on the chest. Summary Despite the second consecutive victory, this was another uninspiring performance from Darnold. He definitely had to deal with some shaky pass protection, and there were certain instances in which very little was available to him and he had no choice but to throw the ball away or check it down, but those factors do not apply as an excuse on every single play. When there were opportunities to make something happen, Darnold did not take advantage of them at a sufficient rate. Things would be much different if Darnold were consistently flashing elite talent in situations where the Jets set him up for success. If that were the case, it would be easy to picture him succeeding with a better supporting cast. That was the gist of Darnold's first two seasons - he generally showed tremendous potential when he was supported well, whether that be over full games, on a drive or two, or even just a single play here or there. But that's not the case anymore. On a week-to-week basis, Darnold has been consistently leaving open targets on the field and missing throws from clean pockets. The way he has played in 2020, Darnold does not look like a quarterback who is a supporting piece or two away from stardom, as he once did. Sam Darnold Grades Week 1 at Buffalo Bills Week 2 vs. San Francisco 49ers Week 3 at Indianapolis Colts Week 4 vs. Denver Broncos Joe Flacco - Week 5 vs. Arizona Cardinals Joe Flacco – Week 6 at Miami Dolphins Week 7 vs. Buffalo Bills Week 8 at Kansas City Chiefs Joe Flacco - Week 9 vs. New England Patriots Joe Flacco - Week 11 at Los Angeles Chargers Week 12 vs. Miami Dolphins Week 13 vs. Las Vegas Raiders Week 14 at Seattle Seahawks Week 15 at Los Angeles Rams Nania's Darnold Grades home page (links to all 2019-20 games)