New York Jets free agent position preview: Wide receiver

The New York Jets need an infusion of explosiveness at the wide receiver position. Which direction should they go in free agency? Jets' impending free agents Jeff Smith 2020 cap hit: $572,939 Free agent type: Exclusive Rights Age on September 1, 2021: 24.3 Free agent WR ranking: 45th of 47 Jeff Smith started off his 2020 season with a bang, grabbing seven of nine targets for 81 yards in a Thursday night bout with the Broncos. From there on out, his season was a nightmare. Over his final 11 games, Smith caught just 10 of 28 targets for 86 yards, averaging 3.1 yards per target and 7.8 yards per game. Finishing the season with 167 yards on 208 routes run, Smith's average of 0.80 yards per route run ranked last out of the 115 wide receivers with at least 30 targets. Vyncint Smith 2020 cap hit: $661,776 Free agent type: Restricted Age on September 1, 2021: 25.2 Free agent WR ranking: DNQ Vyncint Smith was seldom-used offensively in 2020, playing just 50 offensive snaps over seven games as he caught 1-of-3 targets for 13 yards. He was mediocre in 2019, playing 13 games and grabbing 17 of 31 targets for 225 yards (7.3 per target / 17.3 per game), 11 first downs (35.5% rate) and no touchdowns. Breshad Perriman 2020 cap hit: $6,437,500 Free agent type: Unrestricted Age on September 1, 2021: 27.9 Free agent WR ranking: 25th of 47 Perriman's 2020 season was a roller-coaster, featuring moments of brilliance but also long stretches of silence. While Perriman was certainly not great in his own right, it is worth considering that he dealt with some brutal quarterback play that cost him catches on many plays in which he was open. Over 12 games, Perriman caught 30 of 60 targets for 505 yards (8.4 per target / 42.1 per game), 17 first downs, and three touchdowns (33.3% conversion rate). Perriman could never quite get on the same page with Sam Darnold and Joe Flacco in the deep game. He caught only four of the 17 targets thrown his way over 20 yards downfield (23.5%). One underrated aspect of Perriman's performance was his ability to draw penalties. Perriman tied for sixth among wide receivers with five defensive pass interference penalties drawn, with those totaling 91 yards. His production in this area explains how, in spite of catching only half of his targets and picking up a first down on only a third of them, he posted a near-average DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) of -3.0% that ranked at the 47th percentile among qualified wide receivers. Jets' players under contract Jamison Crowder, age 28.2 on 9-1-21, $11.4M cap hit in 2021 (signed through 2021) Denzel Mims, age 23.9, $1.2M cap hit (signed through 2023) Josh Doctson, age 28.7, $985K cap hit (signed through 2021) Josh Malone, age 25.4, $920K cap hit (signed through 2021) Braxton Berrios, age 25.9, $850K cap hit (signed through 2021) D.J. Montgomery, age 24.8, $850K cap hit (signed through 2021) Jaleel Scott, age 26.5, $850K cap hit (signed through 2021) Manasseh Bailey, age 24.2, $850K cap hit (signed through 2021) Lawrence Cager, age 24.0, $850K cap hit (signed through 2021) The Jets have a lot of bodies at wide receiver, but only one of them - Mims - is under contract beyond the upcoming season. Crowder had an excellent season in 2020, grabbing 59 of 89 targets for 699 yards, 26 first downs, and six touchdowns over 12 games. He set career-highs in yards per game (58.3), touchdowns per game (0.5), and total conversions per game (2.7). His average of 39.9 yards per game out of the slot ranked sixth-best in the league. Mims hauled in 23 of 44 targets for 357 yards (8.1 per target / 39.7 per game), 15 first downs (34.1% rate), and no touchdowns over nine games. As we broke down here at Jet X, he was criminally underused, seeing only 4.9 targets per game due largely to a combination of poor vision at the quarterback position and mismanagement from Adam Gase (although Mims' route-running needs work before he can hit his maximum potential). Berrios was fine when he was thrust into a starting role, averaging 48.0 yards and 2.5 conversions in the four games missed by Crowder. However, he was electric when handling his extremely small role late in the season. Over the last five games of the season, Berrios managed to post 171 receiving yards (34.2 per game) with just 37 offensive snaps (7.4 per game). Perhaps he has a future as a top-notch gadget/limited-role weapon. Top-tier free agents that make sense Allen Robinson, Bears Free agent type: Unrestricted Age on September 1, 2021: 28.0 Free agent WR ranking: 6th of 47 Some contend that Robinson is not a great option for the Jets, claiming his lack of big-time YAC ability makes him a less-than-ideal scheme fit and that he has somewhat of a clashing skill-set with Mims. I disagree. While those things are true, Robinson is the type of player who is good enough to where scheme fit should be a non-issue. Plug him into any offense and he will likely find success. Robinson owns career averages of 68.2 yards and 0.44 touchdowns per game - 1,091 yards and seven touchdowns per 16 games - despite catching the majority of his career passes from Blake Bortles and Mitchell Trubisky. Robinson is coming off of a 2020 season in which he ranked 13th in the NFL with 78.1 receiving yards per game with Trubisky and Nick Foles splitting the reps at quarterback. Any receiver-needy team should be willing to shell out for Robinson if their cap sheet can handle it. Curtis Samuel, Panthers Free agent type: Unrestricted Age on September 1, 2021: 25.0 Free agent WR ranking: 10th of 47 Samuel is a high-production player who doubles as a presumably great fit in Mike LaFleur's offense. In San Francisco, the passing game was built around concepts that gave receivers the ball in space with the chance to make a play after the catch. Samuel is a pure playmaker, as evidenced by his 41 carries for 200 yards (both tops among WRs) in 2020. As a pass-catcher, Samuel posted career-highs of 56.7 yards per game, 8.8 yards per target, and a 40.2% conversion rate in 2020. Overall, he accumulated 1,051 scrimmage yards (70.1 per game). A move into the slot facilitated Samuel's breakout. Samuel lined up in the slot on only 28.1% of his routes run from 2017-19. This season, Samuel was the top slot receiver for the Panthers, running 71.8% of his routes out of the slot. Corey Davis, Titans Free agent type: Unrestricted Age on September 1, 2021: 26.6 Free agent WR ranking: 1st of 47 Teams will need to be wary of Davis' one-year-wonder status, as he made an overnight jump from an average starter (44.5 YPG over first three seasons) to a superstar, but his 2020 season was a marvelous one that will net him some big money. In 14 games, Davis caught 65 of 92 targets for 984 yards, five touchdowns, and 44 first downs, posting a stupendous 53.2% conversion rate and averaging 10.7 yards per target. He ranked above the position's 90th percentile in each of receiving yards per game (70.2), overall PFF grade (86.9), yards per route run (2.58), routes run per conversion (7.8), and DVOA (+22.4%). Davis thrived in a very play-action heavy Tennessee offense - Ryan Tannehill ran play action on 36.4% of his dropbacks in 2020, tops among qualifiers. This should make him a good fit for Mike LaFleur's offense, which will likely be heavy on play action if he holds up San Francisco's trends over the past four seasons. In 2020, Jimmy Garoppolo ran play action on 32.3% of his dropbacks, ranking ninth-highest out of 39 qualifiers. Kenny Golladay, Lions Free agent type: Unrestricted Age on September 1, 2021: 27.8 Free agent WR ranking: 3rd of 47 Golladay posted back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons from 2018-19, averaging 72.7 yards per game, 9.6 yards per target, and 0.52 touchdowns per game over that span, registering an elite 45.5% conversion rate with 107 conversions on 235 targets. In 2020, he only played five games, missing three games to start the year with a hamstring injury and then missing the final 11 with a hip injury. In his four fully-played games, Golladay averaged 84.5 yards on 12.1 yards per target with an astronomical 57.1% conversion rate (14 first downs and 2 touchdowns on 28 targets). At six-foot-four, 214 pounds, Golladay fits the prototype mold of a big-bodied "No. 1 receiver." He would likely handle the Jets' "X" receiver role while kicking Mims over the "Z" role. The same would likely occur if Robinson were signed. Chris Godwin, Buccaneers Free agent type: Unrestricted Age on September 1, 2021: 25.5 Free agent WR ranking: 4th of 47 If Tampa Bay somehow lets Godwin hit the open market, he is going to be in extraordinarily high demand. He has established himself as one of the most efficient targets in football. Over the past two seasons, Godwin has grabbed 106 conversions on 205 targets, an unreal rate of 51.7%. He also averaged 83.6 yards per game on a whopping 10.6 yards per target over that span. Godwin is primarily a slot man, running 67.1% of his routes out of the slot in 2020. Among the 49 wide receivers with at least 150 routes run out of the slot, none caught a higher percentage of their slot targets than Godwin, who snatched 85.7% of the throws his way when he darted out from a slot alignment. Top-tier free agents to avoid Will Fuller, Texans Free agent type: Unrestricted Age on September 1, 2021: 27.3 Free agent WR ranking: 2nd of 47 Fuller is a great player who the Jets should definitely take a look at, but they need to be cautious in their pursuit of him. He has only played 53 out of 80 possible regular season games in his career (66.3%), missing at least five games in each of the past four seasons. Fuller missed the final five games of 2020 due to a PED suspension and will miss one game in 2021 to wrap up the six-game penalty. Durability and availability have been massive problems for the Jets in recent seasons. As they look to establish a new identity, it would be extremely helpful to have as many key pieces stay on the field as possible. Injuries cannot be predicted - C.J. Mosley had missed three games in five seasons before joining the Jets and has now missed 30 in two seasons since joining them - but you can tilt the odds in your favor by leaning towards consistently durable players and away from frail ones. Let's not ignore how good Fuller is, though. He ranked 10th in the NFL with 79.9 receiving yards per game in 2020, posting a DVOA of +41.2% that not only led all 87 receivers with at least 50 targets but surpassed second-ranked Julio Jones by 11.5%, the same margin between Jones and 14th-ranked Tyreek Hill. Over the past three seasons, Fuller has averaged 70.8 yards per game (1,133 per 16 games), 0.52 touchdowns per game (8.3 per 16 games), and 10.7 yards per target. Fuller just might not be worth the gamble for this Jets team. A franchise looking to win a Super Bowl next year should definitely be willing to take the risk on Fuller's talent, but a rebuilding squad like the Jets might want to spend their money in a safer way. JuJu Smith-Schuster, Steelers Free agent type: Unrestricted Age on September 1, 2021: 24.7 Free agent WR ranking: 20th of 47 Smith-Schuster has devolved into an average player after looking like a star over his first two seasons. In 2020, he ranked at the 29th percentile among wide receivers in DVOA (-10.1%), the 38th percentile in yards per route run (2.08), the 49th percentile in overall PFF grade (70.0), and the 56th percentile in routes run per conversion (14.3). He's very young for an unrestricted free agent and has elite production on his resume that could still be unlocked, but he has not made enough of an impact over the past two seasons to warrant a huge contract. Bargain free agents to target Rashard Higgins, Browns Free agent type: Unrestricted Age on September 1, 2021: 33.1 Free agent WR ranking: 7th of 47 Higgins was incredibly effective in 2020. On just 52 targets, he picked up 37 catches for 599 yards, four touchdowns, and 22 first downs, posting 11.5 yards per target and a 50.0% conversion rate. His +29.4% DVOA trailed only Julio Jones and Will Fuller among players with at least 50 targets. Teams will have a tough time figuring out Higgins. In an injury-hampered 2019, he was brutal, catching just four passes for 55 yards over 104 routes run (0.53 yards per route run) across 10 games. However, in 2018, he was almost identically excellent to 2020. Over 13 games that season, he caught 39 of 53 targets for 572 yards, four touchdowns, and 23 first downs, averaging 10.8 yards per target and a 50.8% conversion rate. That's eerily similar to his 2020 campaign. Higgins has missed 12 games over the past three seasons and has never been a featured option, but in two of the past three years, he produced at an elite level of efficiency in a limited role. He's one of the more enticing mid-tier options on the free agent market at any position. Perhaps he could break out in a larger role, but if not, he should have a strong chance of continuing to thrive as a second or third option. Kendrick Bourne, 49ers Free agent type: Unrestricted Age on September 1, 2021: 26.0 Free agent WR ranking: 16th of 47 Possessing a connection to Mike LaFleur and Robert Saleh from the past four seasons, Bourne has been a very efficient target throughout his career at a modest volume. Although he is only averaging 30.5 yards per game in his four-year career, he owns a conversion rate of 45.8% and a yards per target average of 8.1. In 2020, he posted a career-best 44.5 yards per game with 9.0 yards per target and a 47.3% conversion rate. Bourne is a good after-the-catch player. In 2020, he averaged 4.5 YAC per reception versus an expected average of 3.5, a very good +1.0 margin (28th out of 98 qualified WR). In 2019, Bourne averaged 4.1 YAC versus an expected average of 3.3 for a +0.8 margin (30th of 94 qualifiers). Offering versatility, Bourne can play both outside and in the slot. He ran 46.4% of his routes out of the slot in 2020 and 52.7% in 2019. Willie Snead, Ravens Free agent type: Unrestricted Age on September 1, 2021: 28.8 Free agent WR ranking: 17th of 47 Snead is a solid chain-mover out of the slot. Over the past two seasons, he did not put up strong volume numbers in Baltimore, posting a measly 26.6 yards per game, but he delivered when targeted. Snead caught 43 conversions over 94 targets from 2019-20 for a conversion rate of 45.7%. He owns a career conversion rate of 44.1%. Don't expect Snead to work outside - he's one of the purest slot weapons in the league. He ran 81.9% of his routes from the slot in 2020, 13th-highest among qualified wide receivers. In 2019, that rate was 78.8%, also near the top of the leaderboard. What should the Jets' approach be? The Jets have a dire need at wide receiver, so they should certainly put their name in the hat for all of the top names available at the position, but this may be a spot where they will want to be cautious. Teams tend to have a lot of success building through the draft at the wide receiver position. That is because wide receiver is one of the game's more scheme-dependent positions. More so than many other spots on the field, teams find success when taking a player in the later rounds who slipped because of weaknesses that don't matter in their scheme but has strengths that would be maximized in their scheme. If the Jets can land someone like Davis, Godwin, Golladay, Robinson, or Samuel at a price that makes sense, that would be absolutely fantastic. However, unlike the EDGE position, it will not be the end of the world if the Jets cannot land a big-ticket talent at this position. There are a lot of good value options on the market. In addition, the 2021 wide receiver class is deep, and the Jets are well-positioned to capitalize on it with five picks in the first three rounds, including top-two picks in rounds one through three. Plus, with Crowder and Mims in place, they already have two very worthy starting-caliber talents in place. The roster has bigger holes. Yes, wide receiver is a big need, and yes, the Jets should and most likely will chase hard after the biggest stars on the market. That being said, the position might not be big enough of a need to warrant any gross overpayments, whereas at positions like edge rusher and offensive guard, the Jets can be excused for going a bit overboard to patch the hole. Joe Douglas should take a seat at the table for the A-listers of the market, but he should feel comfortable about folding his hand if the price tags soar to absurd levels. He has talent in place and plenty of other avenues to success at this position.