Can New York Jets’ Ashtyn Davis thrive in the box? (Film)

New York Jets safety Ashtyn Davis was drafted to play deep, but he ended up primarily playing in the box. Can he stay there? When the New York Jets selected Ashtyn Davis with the 68th overall pick in the third round of the 2020 NFL draft, most assumed that his primary home as a professional would be the free safety position. Davis' speed, athleticism, range, and deep zone coverage ability were the traits that stood out the most from his college film at California, so a deep safety role seemed like the natural fit for him in the NFL. Davis began the season as a backup while Marcus Maye slid into Jamal Adams' strong safety role and the newly-acquired Bradley McDougald primarily manned the free safety spot. Across the five games in which Davis was active over the first seven weeks of the season (Davis missed two games from Weeks 3-4 with a groin injury), he played only 59 defensive snaps (11.5 per game), including none in Week 1 and Week 6. Heading into Week 8, McDougald was placed on season-ending injured reserve, paving the way for Davis to take over as an every-down starter. However, with Maye having moved back to free safety in Week 6, Davis ended up spending a lot of time near the line of scrimmage. According to Pro Football Focus' tracking, from Weeks 8-13, Davis lined up at free safety on 39.1% of his snaps, while he lined up elsewhere 60.9% of the time. Over the same span, Maye played free safety on 70.6% of his snaps. With Davis locked-in for the foreseeable future and Maye's contract expiring in just under a month, the Jets have some interesting decisions to make at this position. Do they believe in Davis as a long-term starting strong safety next to Maye? Would they rather let Maye walk and have Davis fill his shoes at free safety while finding a new strong safety? What if they do not see Davis as a starter at all, and believe they need to add a new starter to put next to Maye while using Davis as a versatile third safety? Whether or not Davis proves he is capable of handling a box role will be an integral variable in the future of the Jets' secondary. Let's dig into some of what he showed on film throughout his time as a starter. Run defense The Good It goes without saying that a strong safety who frequently lines up in the box needs to be able to provide good run support. Quality play recognition, smart gap-filling, effective block-shedding, and reliable tackling in traffic are essential traits. Davis showcased many of these things. Lined up opposite the tight end about three yards downfield, Davis quickly diagnoses the run play as the tight end kicks out to block the edge defender. The right tackle works with the right guard on a double-team against Harvey Langi, leaving Davis free. Davis zips through the D-gap and avoids overpursuing, remaining patient at the point of attack. Once he sees Kalen Ballage commit to running in his direction, Davis goes low and hits him at the knees for a four-yard loss (combining with Jordan Jenkins). Coming unblocked off the back side as the wide 9-tech, Davis shows off some of his speed and range as he tracks down Troymaine Pope and stops him for a gain of five yards before he can break loose. Tackling was not a problem for Davis in his rookie season. He missed only one tackle all season, leading all qualified safeties with a position-low missed tackle rate of 2.7% (36 tackles, 1 missed tackle). Against the run, he made 10 tackles without a single miss. It is a bit concerning that he heavily relies on head-first tackles to the legs, so he does need to work on going head-up more often if he is going to maintain his low miss rate, but it is promising that he was able to keep the whiffs to a bare minimum even without perfect technique. Davis showed flashes of being able to defeat the blocks of wide receivers on a consistent basis. Lined up against Jakobi Meyers in the slot on this play, Davis gets low and plows Meyers into the backfield. Davis creeps down into the C-gap across from Meyers. Off the snap, Davis feels Meyers' aggressive attempt to seal him outside. Davis dips his inside shoulder, beating Meyers to get an angle into the backfield. I'm not a big fan of what happens next, as Davis seemingly assumes the play is over and Meyers to manhandle him throughout the rest of the rep, but the initial move from Davis is impressive. Recognizing the incoming crack block from Jakeem Grant, Davis lowers his outside shoulder and bounces off of Grant with ease to fulfill his C-gap responsibility. Blame Lamar Jackson and Tarell Basham for this run breaking loose. Great work by Davis here against the fullback. He sets himself up on the edge, lowers his shoulder, and fires it into Jakob Johnson, sending him flying into the air. Johnson trips Damien Harris, and Harris ends up going down for a one-yard loss. Davis got no tackle credit on this play even though he was the one that made it happen. The Bad Davis had some trouble matching up with tight ends in the run game. His lack of size (200 pounds) and strength (14 bench press reps at the Combine, 23rd percentile among safeties) could make him a mismatch for tight ends. On this goal-line play, Davis is in man coverage against tight end Ryan Izzo (256 pounds) and motions with him to the inside. As New England hands the ball off, Davis attempts to engage but gets pancaked. Davis goes in motion across the formation with Foster Moreau (250 pounds), and the Raiders run a toss play to Davis' side. Davis is pinned inside by Moreau as his momentum is completely stopped upon contact. Overall, I was surprisingly impressed with Davis in the run game. His size is an issue against tight ends, but his play recognition, speed, pursuit angles, block-shedding against wide receivers, and tackling were all pluses in this phase when he lined up near the line of scrimmage. Coverage The Good Against the pass, safeties who play near the line of scrimmage need to be capable of handling man-to-man assignments against tight ends. While Davis had his share of rough moments in coverage throughout his rookie season, he had some bright flashes that suggested he has the potential to develop into an excellent man-to-man defender. On the play below, Davis gets beaten by Mike Gesicki for a 13-yard touchdown, but it's actually a solid rep. Despite stumbling mid-route, Davis is right there at the catch point. It takes a perfect throw from Ryan Fitzpatrick and an excellent catch from Gesicki to get the job done. Before tripping, Davis stays square and balanced, remains over top of the route, and gets his hands-on. After the trip, Davis never looks back, focusing on recovering. He shows off his recovery speed as he is able to catch up, and then does a nice job of playing through the receiver's hands to contest the catch. Great catch by Gesicki, but a great rep by Davis as well, foiled only by an unlucky stumble. Davis lines up in a press look against the outside tight end, Foster Moreau, but he ends up covering Darren Waller, the inside tight end, on a wheel route out of a switch release. Davis gets on top of the route, flips his hips, gets hands-on, and runs with Waller step-for-step, shutting him down. Waller stops and faces back to the quarterback to try and make himself an option, but Davis sticks right with him, and Derek Carr misfires against the tight coverage. Here's a great zone rep from Davis out of a slot alignment. Davis drops out of the slot to play the flat. Knowing there is a receiver to the outside against a defender who is giving a massive cushion in Cover-2, Davis gets plenty of depth downfield to cover underneath any intermediate throw to that receiver. This is successful, as Cam Newton is prompted to dump the ball to his fullback. Davis comes down and makes the tackle short of the first down marker. Lined up as the SAM (strong-side) linebacker, Davis doesn't bite on the play fake and begins moving outside to cover the flat a few steps before Patrick Mahomes releases the football. Mahomes hits Nick Keizer into the flat, and Davis is right there to stop the play a few yards short of the first down marker with a great tackle that allows no yardage after contact. The Bad We saw Davis win a rep against Waller earlier, but Waller takes Davis' lunch money this time. Davis lines up against Waller with inside leverage, but still allows him to separate on the drag route for 19 yards. Off the snap, Davis takes a false step with his outside foot, widening his base way too much and giving up his advantage to the inside. With Davis not making quick contact, that false step is all Waller needs to beat him over the middle. Davis tries to make contact late, but Waller counters it, pushing him aside to separate. It's an added bonus to have safeties who can match up with wide receivers in the slot, but we haven't quite seen that ability from Davis yet. Here, Keenan Allen toasts Davis on a slant for 21 yards. Blitzing The Good Davis showed off some legitimate pass-rushing skills from an outside linebacker alignment. He did more than just sprint into the backfield unblocked at full speed. As a wide-9 here, Davis throws an inside spin move on the tight end, getting involved in a hit on Ryan Fitzpatrick. It's not the cleanest spin move the world has ever seen, as Davis stumbles and takes a few extra steps, but he's able to win by getting the tight end to bite hard on his upfield sell. Davis also does a good job of chopping down with his inside arm to prevent the tight end from establishing contact. Davis pushes the tight end back by working his inside arm into the tight end's chest. When the tight end releases, Davis stays balanced and shows off his speed as he charges in for a crushing hit on Cam Newton. This was called a roughing the passer penalty, but that's a debatable decision. Subtle play here from Davis that I really like. Davis rushes off the edge and is picked up by the running back with the left tackle waiting right behind him to help. After blocking Davis, the back leaks out and looks to make himself a receiving option. Davis, knowing he has no shot of making anything happen with so much time already elapsed and the left tackle waiting for him, pulls out of his rush to cover the back. Good heads-up play. Check out the violent blitz here from Davis against the running back. Davis creeps in before the snap, shows as if he is going to rush inside, and then loops back outside to the B-gap once John Franklin-Myers lures the right guard inside to open the lane. Davis lowers his shoulder into the running back and thrusts upward, sending him careening. The Bad The only noticeable weakness that popped out to me when watching Davis' pass-rushing game is that he sometimes doesn't have much of an answer when he is picked up by a running back (the play above being an exception). He'll often resort to merely charging into the blocker instead of attempting to use speed or finesse, which usually results in him being completely stonewalled. Here are three examples. Conclusions After focusing closely on Davis' play around the line of scrimmage, I was actually quite impressed. I think he certainly has the potential to develop into a capable long-term starter in the role that he played for the Jets last season. Davis needs to improve his sturdiness against tight ends in the run game and his technique in man-to-man coverage, while he needs to add more nuance to his rushing game to fulfill his exciting potential in that area. However, his play recognition, tenacity, and tackling all stood out in a positive way, as he looked ready for a full-time box role in those three areas. He rarely blew an assignment or was caught out of position, tackled at an elite level of efficiency, and showed plenty of gritty, physicality, and toughness. Speed at the safety position is most commonly associated with the ranginess of playing in the back end, but speed can affect the game on any part of the field. Davis still made a big impact with his speed when playing near the line of scrimmage, as his wheels popped off the screen when he blitzed, covered the flat, pursued to the sideline against the run, or needed to make up ground in man coverage. While Davis can certainly still become a good starter as a deep man, most of his biggest mistakes throughout his rookie season were in deep zone coverages. Egregious blunders were rare for him near the line of scrimmage. As of right now, I would be much more comfortable with him as a strong safety than a free safety. It will be extremely interesting to see how Robert Saleh, Jeff Ulbrich, and the Jets decide to utilize Davis going forward. He showcased great versatility as he took on almost every role imaginable in his rookie season, and while he made his share of mistakes, he was rather strong in the mental aspect of the game for a rookie being asked to take on so many different roles in the secondary. His awareness, fundamentals, instincts, and understanding of the defense - while each imperfect - were good, all things considered. With more time to fully acclimate into the league, he has the raw physical tools to develop into a force. Where do you think Ashtyn Davis' future lies in the New York Jets defense?