Analyzing New York Jets RB Tevin Coleman’s strengths and weaknesses

Tevin Coleman brings the top-notch pass-catching ability that the New York Jets' backfield was previously lacking. The New York Jets' returning backfield trio of Josh Adams, La'Mical Perine, and Ty Johnson offers an intriguing mix of young talent, but it lacked one thing: proven receiving ability. Adams and Johnson were highly efficient rushers in 2020, while Perine showed some flashes of solid vision and shifty lateral agility, but none of the three were legitimate threats through the air. Enter Tevin Coleman. The first 49er to follow Robert Saleh and Mike LaFleur to New York, Coleman offers the excellent receiving talent that the Jets' backfield was missing. Positives Career receiving impact Coleman has built a reputation as one of the NFL's better backs in the passing game. Check out how some of his career receiving numbers compare to the going rates at the position: Pass protection Coleman's high-quality pass blocking couples up with his receiving abilities to make him the ideal third-down back. He has given up only 15 pressures over 257 career snaps in protection, a 5.8% rate that is slightly above half of the 2020 average for running backs (10.4%). Explosive rushing in Atlanta Over the first four years of his career as a member of the Falcons, Coleman was an effective rusher in addition to his pass-catching abilities. He averaged 4.43 yards per rush attempt from 2015-18. As a rusher, Coleman was far more of a big-play threat than a chain-mover during his Atlanta days. Coleman picked up a first down or a touchdown on only 19.3% of his carries with the Falcons, a subpar rate (2020 RB average: 23.7%). However, his big-play numbers were tremendous. From 2015-18, Coleman gained 962 of his 2,340 rushing yards beyond 15 yards downfield, a massive 41.1% rate that clobbers the 2020 average for running backs (24.4%). Per carry, Coleman averaged 1.82 yards beyond 15 yards downfield, a mark that is 70% higher than the 2020 running back average (1.07). Negatives Rushing struggles in San Francisco Coleman could not find a groove on the ground with the 49ers. He averaged only 3.62 yards per carry over his two seasons in San Francisco, picking up a first down or a touchdown on a measly 17.6% of his carries. In 2020, Coleman was abysmal with his tiny sample of 28 carries, averaging 1.89 yards per carry. He averaged 3.97 yards per carry in 2019. However, it's worth noting that Coleman's awful rushing numbers in 2020 could be blamed on terrible blocking in front of him. Coleman averaged -0.6 yards before contact per carry in 2020. Drops Despite his overall prowess as a receiver, Coleman is quite prone to drops. He has 14 career drops against 117 receptions for a drop rate of 10.7%, a decent amount higher than the 2020 running back average (7.4%). Other notes Steady decline in receiving impact While Coleman's career receiving numbers remain strong, his impact in that phase has declined year-over-year since an outstanding season in 2016. Receiving yards per game: 2016 (ATL): 32.4 2017 (ATL): 19.9 2018 (ATL): 17.3 2019 (SF): 12.9 2020 (SF): 4.3 Yards per target: 2016 (ATL): 10.5 2017 (ATL): 7.7 2018 (ATL): 6.3 2019 (SF): 6.0 2020 (SF): 6.8 Yards per route run: 2016 (ATL): 2.54 2017 (ATL): 1.50 2018 (ATL): 0.93 2019 (SF): 1.06 2020 (SF): 1.31 However, in fairness to Coleman, his conversion rate (percentage of targets resulting in a first down or touchdown) over the past four seasons remains a very good 33.1%, which is even higher than his career average of 32.5%. He has still delivered the goods when targeted even though his yardage production has dwindled. Even so, his average of 6.7 yards per target from 2017-20 remains above-average. The biggest reason for Coleman's decline in receiving production is the fact that his teams just stopped featuring him as prominently as he was in 2016. Here is how often Coleman has been targeted in terms of receiving snaps (snaps in which he ran out as a potential target in the passing game) per target: 2016 (ATL): One target every 4.2 receiving snaps (2020 RB average: 5.0) 2017 (ATL): 6.9 2018 (ATL): 6.7 2019 (SF): 5.7 2020 (SF): 5.2 Here are Coleman's averages in targets per game: 2016 (ATL): 3.1 2017 (ATL): 2.6 2018 (ATL): 2.8 2019 (SF): 2.1 2020 (SF): 0.6 I do not think Coleman's steady downfall in receiving yardage is much to be concerned about. His per-target efficiency has remained well-above-average even if he has not been able to return to the monumental heights of his 2016 season. He simply hasn't been given as many opportunities. Durability Coleman's durability track record isn't terrible, but it is a bit worrisome. He has played in 78 out of 96 possible regular season games, an 81.3% portion and an average of 13.0 games per year. However, he missed a career-high eight games in 2020 due to a knee injury that landed him on injured reserve in the middle of the season. Coleman was phased out of the Niners offense following his injury, getting only 10 carries and one target over six games after his return. Usage/role Coleman is a good fit for the heavily zone-based running scheme the Jets are poised to run. Of his 693 career rushing attempts, 71.4% of them were zone runs. Despite his solid numbers as a pass-catcher, Coleman has not been featured in the passing game at a level that matches his efficiency. He has been targeted once every 5.6 receiving snaps throughout his career, below the 2020 running back average of 5.0. Coleman isn't much of a downfield threat. While he caught three passes over 10 yards downfield in 2016, he has caught only three of those passes combined over his other five seasons. He does most of his receiving damage as a checkdown and short-range option who is more dangerous with the ball than most. Coleman is averaging 9.8 yards after the catch per reception for his career, a good deal above the 2020 positional average (7.5). Sticking with the theme that he is mostly a short option and doesn't offer much downfield, you shouldn't expect an abnormal amount of alignment versatility from Coleman, either. For his career, he has lined up in the slot on 5.7% of his passing game snaps and out wide on 9.8%, lining up in the backfield at a very normal rate of 84.5% (the 2020 RB average was 85.0%). Perhaps the Falcons and 49ers were wrong to deploy Coleman that way, and the Jets should consider using him in the slot more often. He has been ridiculously efficient when flexed out there. Over 64 career receiving snaps in the slot, Coleman has caught 16-of-19 targets for 330 yards and three touchdowns. That's 17.4 yards per target and 5.16 yards per route run - downright insane production. Film While it's not the bread-and-butter of his game, let's begin by taking a few looks at Coleman's flashes in the slot. His efficiency in this role has been astronomical, and because of that, the Jets should think hard about flexing him out at a much higher frequency than the Falcons or 49ers ever did. This play against the Jets in Week 2 of the 2020 season was Coleman's only catch out of the slot all season - on one of the mere two snaps in which he was sent out there. Coleman flexes out into the right slot and runs a post route, cutting about 10 yards downfield. He shows great spatial awareness as he gets enough depth to clear the underneath defender but stays shallow enough to remain beneath the safety. Coleman goes down and pulls in a contested ball. Nice route, great catch. This play is a mix of a flash in the slot and a strong microcosm of how Coleman makes the majority of his impact as a receiver. Coleman flexes out to the slot on the right side, in-between two other receivers. He runs a drag route, works back to catch a pass that is thrown behind him, and continues in-stride as he turns upfield and jets his way to 37 yards. Much of Coleman's receiving impact is made just like this - through his speed after the catch on shallow catches. Here, the 49ers scheme Coleman open out of the slot, lining him up there rather than flexing him out. With rubs from the receiver to Coleman's side and Kyle Juszczyk coming over the middle from the left side, Coleman is left wide open on the drag route, giving his speed a chance to shine. Let's get into the areas where Coleman has made the majority of his damage - picking up YAC on checkdowns, short passes, and screens. Here, Coleman looks to protect on the edge before leaking out and making himself an option for the quarterback. Jimmy Garoppolo throws to Coleman, but leads him downfield, straight into an oncoming defender. Coleman is able to make the catch and dodge the tackle, trickling his way down the field and past the first down marker. Coleman runs a wheel route and goes uncovered. Matt Ryan gets him the football, but places it far to the outside. Coleman extends for a great grab and continues down the field on his way to 47 yards. Nothing fancy here, but Coleman slips out for a screen and finds the edge to pick up eight yards on 2nd-and-7. Some more screen game action here, and another flash of slot potential. Coleman aligns in the slot, is fed the bubble screen, and reads the field fluidly on his way to a 19-yard touchdown, running through the tackle attempt of 315-pound Kawann Short in the process. Coleman has the one-cut explosion to make a good number of huge plays on outside runs. On this outside zone handoff, Coleman feels a hole opening in the play side A-gap, but to ensure it stays open, he presses hard to the outside to draw the second-level defenders to the edge. Once they bite and get sucked into traffic, Coleman slices upfield and hits top gear in a hurry, running through tacklers on his way to a 23-yard touchdown. On another outside handoff, Coleman does a good job of staying lateral to avoid the unblocked linebacker pursuing downhill. Coleman extends the play all the way out to the sideline, looking to create a lane to cut back towards the middle between the defensive back guarding the sideline and the edge defender holding outside leverage against the right tackle. Once he feels the hole open, Coleman cuts back inside, and he continues on his way to a first down. Coleman is a fantastic addition to a Jets backfield that is clearly going to be committee-style like the ones deployed by the 49ers over Mike LaFleur's days there. He is familiar with LaFleur, is a good scheme fit, and offers passing-game skills that the Jets' other running backs do not. The seventh-year veteran should slide in smoothly as the team's third-down back.