Joe Douglas and the New York Jets seize the day by trading up in Jets X-Factor’s newest 2021 Round 1 mock draft.
Just 13 days remain until the 2021 NFL draft officially commences. By now, fans have been drilled with mock drafts, left right and center, but it’s at this very moment when the mock draft should be most prominent.
This mock is all about matching players to team needs and schemes, collecting and sorting through the yearly draft noise, and making reality-based projections over fantastical ideas.
In the mock below, trades are included; and while I already know I’m going to upset a lot of you with one of them in particular (sorry in advance), taking in the entirety of the mock is critical.
Accurately grading prospects in the NFL draft is difficult enough, and predicting where they will eventually land is sometimes even harder, but I’m confident that at least a couple of the unexpected picks will come true come April 29.
1. Jacksonville Jaguars: Trevor Lawrence, QB, Clemson
Urban Meyer would not have come out of retirement to coach the Jacksonville Jaguars if they did not have the first-overall pick and subsequently could not draft Trevor Lawrence. At least that’s what conventional wisdom would lead one to believe.
This is as easy a pick to mock as it gets, and I’d honestly be shocked at any other outcome. Lawrence has been anointed a blue-chip quarterback prospect since he was a high-school sophomore, and will justly be the first name Roger Goodell calls.
2. New York Jets: Zach Wilson, QB, BYU
In an interview with Sports Illustrated’s Albert Breer, after the Sam Darnold trade, New York Jets general manager Joe Douglas told Breer he had his decision-makers watch the top quarterback prospects independently to form their own opinions. Once they got together, the brain trust had two throwers ranked far above the rest of the class.
All signs point to the aforementioned Lawrence and BYU’s Zach Wilson as those to guys. With Lawrence out of the picture, Wilson is clearly the pick. The Jets wouldn’t have traded Darnold if they weren’t extremely confident in Wilson, and the fact that the whole coaching staff signed off on him should have every Jets fan salivating over the future.
3. San Francisco 49ers: Mac Jones, QB, Alabama
Immediately after trading two future firsts and the 12-overall pick to Miami for No. 3, the smoke about the San Francisco 49ers selecting Mac Jones started leaking. While it’s certainly not what I would do, there’s too much smoke to ignore, and all signs point to Jones being the Niners next signal-caller.
As crazy as it sounds, NFL history is full of wild draft picks that seemed impossible just a few months earlier, and it seems Jones is next on that list.
4. Atlanta Falcons: Trey Lance, QB, NDSU
Some believe the Atlanta Falcons will either trade this pick, or take the best player available and stick with Matt Ryan, but I believe they plan to draft Ryan’s heir apparent. Rather than taking the hometown kid, the Falcons opt for Trey Lance, knowing they plan to sit him behind Ryan while he gains experience in practice.
The Falcons’ brain trust was at every top quarterback’s pro day, so I’m not buying the notion that they pass on a quarterback. Plus, new head coach Arthur Smith and general manager Terry Fontenot are in it for the long-haul. To me, that screams Trey Lance.
5. Cincinnati Bengals: Penei Sewell, OT, Oregon
There’s been some talk in recent weeks about the Cincinnati Bengals possibly bypassing Penei Sewell in favor of a pass-catcher like Ja’Marr Chase or Kyle Pitts. However, that is simply speculation amongst draft analysts, and not coming from any solid reporting.
I still believe the Bengals are going to take Sewell to be their next left tackle, because keeping Joe Burrow healthy is priority No. 1, and the Oregon stud is far and away the draft’s best tackle. Drafting Chase is pointless if Burrow is on the ground before he can throw the ball.
6. Miami Dolphins: Ja’Marr Chase, WR, LSU
Miami made sure to get back into the top 10 after trading down from No. 3, clearly showing they want a top non-quarterback, and with Sewell off the board, Chase is the next man up. Tua needs protection and playmakers like any other young quarterbacks, and Chase’s ability to create after the catch and win contested balls will be a big step in accomplishing that goal.
Rashawn Slater is tempting, but I think Miami jumped up to six because they want either Chase or Devonta Smith, and here they get its preferred choice.
7. Detroit Lions: Rashawn Slater, OT, Northwestern
The trade offers from teams eyeing Justin Fields will come in droves, but with future draft capital already in hand after the Matthew Stafford trade, the Detroit Lions stay where they are and take Slater to bolster their offensive line. Knowing the Panthers will snag Slater out from under them if they move back, the Lions only have one shot at their top-line target, and that makes a trade back too risky.
Not to mention, Lions GM Brad Holmes was with the Rams when they traded up for Jared Goff and has publicly stated his support for him as their starter. If the Lions are rolling with Goff long-term, they need to protect him.
8. New England Patriots: Justin Fields, QB, Ohio State (Trade)
- Patriots receive: No. 8
- Panthers receive: No. 15, No. 46, 2022 Round 1
With Slater now gone, the Panthers choose to move back and add premium assets for the future, while also replacing the ammo they just lost trading for Sam Darnold. Meanwhile, the Patriots give up 15, 46, and their first-round pick next year to snag the falling Fields to be their quarterback of the future.
This pick will surely make Jets fans nervous. And yes, this was the “upsetting news” mentioned at the top.
9. Denver Broncos: Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, LB, Notre Dame
The Broncos would’ve loved to have Fields fall in their laps, but with the Pats sniping him a pick prior, and the top offensive tackles off the board, they instead turn to Notre Dame’s Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah to be their next Roquan Smith. Vic Fangio is one of the best linebacker coaches of the last 20 years, and he’s already shown to value a player with JOK’s skill-set this highly before.
If the quarterback are gone, expect the Broncos add Joker as their ace in the hole against Travis Kelce and Austin Eckler, and expect to see Joker in Pro-Bowls early and often.
10. Dallas Cowboys: Jaycee Horn, CB, South Carolina
The Dallas defense was, for lack of a better word, abysmal last season. and it’s up to new defensive coordinator Dan Quinn to right the ship. In his Seattle-inspired Cover 3 press-bail system, Quinn has routinely valued long, aggressive cornerbacks who can play bump-and-run down the boundary, and no one in the class does that better than South Carolina’s Jaycee Horn.
Jerry Jones is going to gush over Horn’s swagger and NFL pedigree, and Cowboys fans will gush over his ability to lock up receivers.
11. New York Giants: Jaelen Phillips, DE, Miami
After signing Kenny Golladay to be his new WR1, New York Giants general manager Dave Gettleman has all the excuses he needs to draft a lineman in the first round. While his concussion history is certainly a risk, on tape, Jaelen Phillips is the best EDGE in the draft, and defensive coordinator Patrick Graham will covet his versatility as a rusher from multiple spots.
Daniel Jones has every weapon he could want at this point. The team can’t continue to ignore the defense waiting for him to make the leap.
12. Philadelphia Eagles: Devonta Smith, WR, Alabama
Whether the Eagles plan to give Jalen Hurts a real shot as their long-term starter or simply plan to use him as the bridge to a 2022 rookie, adding a stellar wide receiver prospect like the “Slim Reaper,” DeVonta Smith, will only help whoever is playing quarterback succeed, now and in the future.
When it comes to Smith, don’t look at the weight; look at the tape and the list of SEC defensive backs he left burnt to a crisp. The Eagles need separators out wide and no one does that better than Devonta.
13. Los Angeles Chargers: Kyle Pitts, TE, Florida
The Chargers would’ve loved for Slater to fall to them, and while Christian Darrisaw would be a great consolation prize, replacing Hunter Henry with Kyle Pitts is too enticing to pass up. You can find a starting OT in round 2 this year, but you can’t find another Kyle Pitts.
L.A. is hoping Justin Herbert can go toe-to-toe with Pat Mahomes, and if Herbert has any chance to do so, he needs as many weapons as possible.
14. Minnesota Vikings: Christian Darrisaw, OT, Virginia Tech
That sound you’re heading is all the Matterhorns blasting in Minneapolis because the Vikings are doing backflips that Darrisaw is still available.
Darrisaw is the clear-cut OT3, and the gap between two and three isn’t as wide as it seems. His blend of size, length, power and athleticism may be unmatched by any other player in the class, and he’s the ideal replacement for and honestly upgrade over Riley Reiff.
15. Carolina Panthers: Alijah Vera-Tucker, OT, USC
- Patriots receive: No. 8
- Panthers receive: No. 15, No. 46, 2022 Round 1
After trading back, and adding a two and future one, the Panthers land Alijah Vera-Tucker to mend the wound left by missing out on Slater. Sam Darnold needs protection, and AVT will provide just that, whether it comes at guard or tackle.
All in all, the Panthers get Sam Darnold for free, a future one and a stud lineman in Vera-Tucker, for the eighth-overall pick (Patriots). Not too shabby.
16. Arizona Cardinals: Patrick Surtain II, CB, Alabama
The Cardinals have a need for a new Patrick after losing Patrick Peterson in free agency. Patrick Surtain II is the best cover-man left on the board. Defensive coordinator Vance Joseph loves pattern-matching, and Surtain has been taught it by his pro-bowl father and Nick Saban.
You won’t find many better resumés than that. The NFC West is full of great quarterbacks (and soon to be Mac Jones apparently) so stocking DBs who can cover is always a need.
17. Las Vegas Raiders: Micah Parsons, LB, Penn State
Raiders general manager Mike Mayock has prioritized top-quality players from top-quality programs since the day he shook Jon Gruden’s hand for the first time, and with Surtain II just out of reach, Mayock turns to linebacker and ends Micah Parsons’ slide.
Parsons is still raw as a stack-LB, he played RB and DE in high school and has only played the position for two seasons, but his athletic ceiling is sky-high and the Raiders need all the help they can get. There may be some growing pains, but Parsons will find early work as a downhill run defender and attacking-blitzer.
18. Miami Dolphins: Kwity Paye, DE, Michigan
After giving Tua Tagovailoa a weapon at No. 6, the Dolphins give head coach Brian Flores a weapon at 18 in Michigan’s Kwity Paye. Paye is a literal athletic freak, running a 4.54-second 40-yard dash and a 6.35-second 3-cone at 6-foot-3, 261 pounds. He also backs up those numbers on tape with frightening quickness and explosion.
Flores loves creating chaos with his fronts and this kid delivers in a big way in that exact area.
19. New York Jets: Teven Jenkins, OT, Oklahoma State (Trade)
- Jets receive: No. 19
- Football Team receives: No. 23, No. 86, No. 186
Are we friends again, Jets fans?
In his post-Darnold-trade press conference, Douglas said, “We have to surround our next quarterback with as much talent as possible.” That means trading up to bypass the offensive tackle-needy Bears, Colts and Titans to secure Teven Jenkins.
New York sends Washington picks 23, 86 and 186 for 19. Without many pressing needs, Washington is free to collect picks while moving back four spots. The Jets were prepared to trade up to nine for Jedrick Wills Jr. or Mehki Becton last year, so it’s not out of Douglas’ character to make a move if need be.
20. Chicago Bears: Caleb Farley, CB, Virginia Tech
The Bears are upset that they got jumped for Teven, but not for long as Caleb Farley is staring them in the face. Farley is far and away the best cornerback in the draft, especially on tape alone. But his recent back surgery and spotty medical history have pushed him down the board.
However, all signs point to Farley making a full recovery, and Chicago couldn’t ask for a better replacement for fellow Hokie Kyle Fuller.
21. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Jaylen Waddle, WR, Alabama (Trade)
- Bucs receive: No. 21
- Colts receive: No. 32, 64, 2022 Round 3
Does Tampa head coach Bruce Arians care about your feelings? No, no he does not. The Colts, like the Bears, are reeling after missing out on the top tackles and choose to move down instead of reaching, adding picks 32, 64, and Tampa’s 2022 third-round selection.
For the Bucs, they continue to load up for another Super Bowl run behind Tom Brady. Waddle joins Chris Godwin and Mike Evans to form one of the, if not the most dangerous, wide receiver trios in the league.
22. Tennessee Titans: Rashod Bateman, WR, Minnesota
With no tackle worth taking on the board, the Titans look to fill the void left by Corey Davis and add Minnesota’s Rashod Bateman to be A.J. Brown’s new running-mate. With Brown drawing attention deep, Bateman will be free to attack over the middle with quickness and route-running, seamlessly sliding into Davis’ former role.
The Titans look poised to take over in a weak AFC South and keeping their offense humming is the best way to make that happen.
23. Washington Football Team: Zaven Collins, LB, Tulsa
- Football Team receives: No. 23, No. 86, No. 186
- Jets receive: No. 19
Washington moves down, adds picks and lands the same player at 23 they likely would’ve taken at 19 in Tulsa LB Zaven Collins. At 6-foot-4 and 260, with the speed and coverage ability of a strong safety, Collins is an ideal fit at middle linebacker for Washington.
Head coach Ron Rivera will see shades of a young Luke Kuechly when watching Collins’ tape and fall in love. A team filling its biggest need while adding extra picks can never be described as a bad turn of events.
24. Pittsburgh Steelers: Azeez Ojulari, DE, Georgia
The Steelers love drafting pass rushers in the first round—just look at T.J. Watt, Bud Dupree, Jarvis Jones and Cameron Heyward. With Dupree heading to Nashville for $16.5 million a season, there’s an Ojulari-sized hole on that defense waiting to be addressed.
Azeez Ojulari is a menace who packs a ton of power into his 6-foot-3, 240-pound frame, and he should find early work in cleanup duty across from Watt.
25. Jacksonville Jaguars: Trevor Moerihg, S, TCU
By this point in the night, Lawrence will already be on a plane to Jacksonville, so now it’s time for the “Teal Curtain,” as the Jaguars were once known as. The Jags defense needs help in almost every spot except defensive end, but their safeties, in particular, are especially awful, and Moerihg is the draft’s best.
Capable of playing free or strong, with a knack for patrolling as a middle-field robber, Moerihg projects to play the Malik Hooker role for Urban Meyer on day one.
26. Cleveland Browns: Levi Onwuzurike, DT, Washington
Larry Ogunjobi was a hugely underrated part of the Browns’ defensive line, and his loss to Cincy is bigger deal than the attention suggests. That said, Browns general manager Andrew Berry has started his second offseason by crushing free agency and has positioned himself to attack his need at defensive tackle with the 26th pick in former Husky Levi Onwuzurike.
Levi O, as he’ll likely be called his whole career, is a “bull-in-a-China shop” penetrator who uses his raw strength and quicks to manhandle blockers, and should excel between Myles Garrett and Sheldon Richardson.
27. Baltimore Ravens: Terrace Marshall Jr., WR, LSU
The Ravens simply have to take the best available wide receiver with this pick, and that’s Terrace Marshall Jr. from LSU. Marshall followed former teammate Justin Jefferson’s footsteps and bounced between outside receiver and slot throughout his career.
That versatility, combined with his route-running and underrated athleticism, is just what Lamar Jackson needs to get this passing game off the ground.
Play: 👉 the Jet X Offseason Simulator
28. New Orleans Saints: Christian Barmore, DT, Alabama
The Saints’ biggest need is quarterback (despite what Sean Payton thinks about Taysom Hill), and while a surprise sixth first-round quarterback could happen, I also know the Saints love the trenches. A player of Christian Barmore’s caliber is too good to ignore.
Sheldon Rankins is now in Florham Park, and Barmore can fill his role at 3-tech on early downs while playing shade-nose in rush packagers.
29. Green Bay Packers: Creed Humphrey, OC, Oklahoma
The Packers have had a penchant for trading up in the past, but this time they stay put and make arguably the best pick of the whole first round by stealing Creed Humphrey at 29.
Aaron Rodgers needs a new center now that Corey Linsley is snapping for Justin Herbert in LA, and Humphrey is an all-star prospect and perfect scheme fit, who could be one of the best players at his position early on in his career as a Packer.
30. Buffalo Bills: Gregory Rousseau, DE, Miami
Even though he might seem to be, Jerry Hughes is not immortal and the Bills need to inject some juice into their pass-rush to take advantage of the leads Josh Allen and the offense will provide. Gregory Rousseau has fallen quite a bit from being the top-five pick he thought he would be when he opted out of 2020.
Still, he’s a first-round talent that Buffalo should be happy to add to its roster. An interior rush-package of Ed Oliver and Rousseau is what nightmares are made of.
31. Kansas City Chiefs: Greg Newsome, CB, Northwestern
From one Greg to another, the Chiefs add Greg Newsome to fill their need at outside corner and round out their secondary. Twenty-twenty fourth-rounder L’Jarius Sneed played exceptionally well in his limited action and should be primed to be the starting slot corner, but the gap at outside cornerback remains, and Newsome is just the type of experienced player to meet the challenge.
Unless the Chiefs want to have to win a shoot-out every game, they should make sure their pass defense is top-notch.
32. Indianapolis Colts: Alex Leatherwood, OT, Alabama
- Colts receive: No. 32, 64, 2022 Round 3
- Bucs receive: No. 21
Good decision-makers understand value, and few general managers understand value better than Indy’s Chris Ballard. The Colts have a glaring need at left tackle after Anthony Castonzo retired, and while they could’ve taken Leatherwood at 21, it would’ve been a reach.
Here, they get Alex Leatherwood, another two and a future three. Coming from Tuscaloosa, Leatherwood fits Frank Reich’s power scheme and brute mentality like a glove. Making sure Carson Wentz stays healthy should be at the top of the to-do list.
