Michael Carter II, NY Jets, PFF, Stats, Duke, 2021, Draft Pick
Michael Carter II, New York Jets, Getty Images

Michael Carter II is a young New York Jets building block who warrants more attention

The New York Jets‘ young core is peppered with big-ticket names that offer tantalizing potential. Zach Wilson, Elijah Moore, Sauce Gardner, Garrett Wilson, Jermaine Johnson – these are just a few of the guys who headline the Jets’ intriguing nucleus. Running back Michael Carter should also be thrown into that conversation.

But let’s not forget about the other Michael Carter.

Duke cornerback Michael Carter II had himself a promising rookie season in which he showed the ability to become a solid slot cornerback in the NFL. Carter II won the Jets’ starting slot role going into Week 1 and maintained it throughout the season. Going into 2022, he is the only one of the Jets’ three starting cornerbacks from 2021 who is projected to retain his spot as a starter.

Carter II’s rookie-year production was impressive and warrants just as much attention as the numbers produced by the other young prospects on the team. Let’s dig into some of the things that made Carter II’s first season an exciting one.

Strength: Avoiding costly mistakes at an elite level

When a game goes by and you rarely hear the television announcers call a particular cornerback’s name, that’s typically a very good thing. This happened a lot for Carter II in 2021. He rarely made the kind of mistakes that draw the spotlight in his direction.

Carter II played 15 games and logged a total of 777 defensive snaps, including 472 snaps in coverage. Across that large sample size of playing time, Carter II committed just two penalties and allowed only one touchdown reception against his coverage.

This made Carter II one of only three NFL cornerbacks to commit fewer than three penalties and allow fewer than three touchdowns while playing over 400 snaps in coverage. Jourdan Lewis of the Cowboys and Adoree Jackson of the Giants were the other players.

Based on the 2021 league averages at the cornerback position for penalties per snap and touchdowns allowed per snap, Carter II was expected to produce a combined total of 7.33 penalties and allowed touchdowns. He only produced three, meaning he saved 4.33 penalties and touchdowns versus expectation. This mark ranked seventh-best out of 96 qualified cornerbacks:

  1. Kendall Fuller, Washington: +6.08 (1 penalty, 3 TD over 649 coverage snaps)
  2. Jourdan Lewis, Dallas: +5.78 (1 penalty, 2 TD over 565 coverage snaps)
  3. Adoree Jackson, NY Giants: +5.70 (0 penalties, 2 TD over 496 coverage snaps)
  4. Nate Hobbs, Las Vegas: +4.73 (3 penalties, 1 TD over 562 coverage snaps)
  5. Byron Jones, Miami: +4.65 (2 penalties, 3 TD over 621 coverage snaps)
  6. Casey Hayward, Las Vegas: +4.50 (4 penalties, 2 TD over 676 coverage snaps)
  7. Michael Carter II, NY Jets: +4.33 (2 penalties, 1 TD over 472 coverage snaps)
  8. Bryce Callahan, Denver: +4.11 (0 penalties, 1 TD over 329 coverage snaps)
  9. Tyson Campbell, Jacksonville: +3.81 (0 penalties, 4 TD over 503 coverage snaps)
  10. Elijah Molden, Tennessee: +3.60 (0 penalties, 3 TD over 425 coverage snaps)

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Strength: Keeping everything in front of him

The average pass thrown at Carter II only traveled 6.0 yards downfield, which was the seventh-lowest rate among qualified cornerbacks.

What this number tells us is that a lot of the passes thrown in Carter II’s vicinity were screens, dump-offs, and other extremely shallow passes that he had no opportunity to contest at the catch point. In these situations, his only responsibility is to limit the reception to as little yardage as possible – and he did a great job of that.

Carter II allowed an average of 9.9 yards per reception, which ranked 16th-best out of 96 qualified cornerbacks (84th percentile).

Overall, he was targeted 79 times and allowed 60 catches for 595 yards, zero touchdowns, and zero interceptions.

Carter II also did a respectable job of preventing any enormous completions. The longest reception he allowed on the year went for a gain of 36 yards. Of the league’s 96 qualified cornerbacks, 81 of them allowed at least one catch that went for more than 36 yards. Forty-five of them allowed at least one catch for 50+ yards.

Strength: Contributing as a playmaker against the run

Carter II did a solid job of getting involved against the run. He tied for 20th among cornerbacks with seven run-stops. With those seven run-stops coming over 273 snaps against the run (48th), he had a run-stop rate of 2.6%, which placed 25th out of 118 qualified cornerbacks (79th percentile).

Now that we’ve gone into the primary positives of Carter II’s rookie season, I want to highlight a few of the areas where he must improve to make a second-year jump.

Area of emphasis: Sharpening his run defense

While Carter II was a relatively active run defender, he wasn’t totally sharp in that area.

Carter II tied for 18th among cornerbacks with four missed tackles against the run. His missed tackle rate of 16.0% in the run game placed at the 44th percentile among qualifiers – it’s not awful, but it can be cleaned up.

Pro Football Focus’ grading system was not fond of Carter II’s run defense at all. PFF scored Carter II with a run defense grade of 40.4, which placed at the 7th percentile among qualifiers at his position. There were times when he took poor angles and contributed to allowing some big runs to break out.

Area of emphasis: Taking the ball away

As I highlighted in my recent breakdown that looked at the primary areas of weakness for the Jets’ 2021 defensive rookies, Carter II can work on his ability to produce takeaways.

Carter II did not have any interceptions or forced fumbles in his rookie season. He did have two fumble recoveries, but those are mostly based on luck. Interceptions and forced fumbles are the categories you want to look for individual defenders since they have some degree of control over them.

Only six cornerbacks in the NFL played more defensive snaps than Carter II (777) without recording an interception or a forced fumble.

Based on the league averages for cornerbacks, Carter II was expected to produce a combined total of 2.0 interceptions and forced fumbles over his snap count. With an actual total of zero, he produced -2.0 interceptions and forced fumbles versus expectation, which ranked eighth-worst out of 96 qualified cornerbacks. Teammate Bryce Hall (-2.88) was the NFL’s worst cornerback in this category.

Great in zone, needs improvement in man

Carter II has stark splits between zone coverage and man coverage.

In zone coverage, Carter II was fantastic. He gave up only 6.8 yards per reception in zone, which ranked sixth-best out of 96 qualifiers (95th percentile).

Carter II was targeted 36 times in zone coverage and allowed 32 catches for a fairly modest 218 yards. His longest reception allowed in zone coverage went for only 20 yards, which was shorter than the longest reception allowed in zone coverage by all but four of the other 95 qualified corners.

But in man coverage, Carter II was beaten fairly often. Carter II played man-to-man on 147 snaps and gave up 279 yards, an average of 1.90 yards per cover snap that ranked 88th out of 96 qualifiers (8th percentile). He also ranked 92nd with 19.4 yards allowed per reception. Teams threw at him 27 times and completed 15 passes for 291 yards.

Michael Carter II projects as a reliable starting slot man

Like any young player, there are areas where Carter II must improve, but he showed proficiency in enough areas during his rookie season to inspire confidence that he can be a dependable starter in the slot going forward.

Carter II might never be a playmaking machine who lights up highlight reels, and that’s just fine. Executing his responsibilities with superb consistency is what he does well. Carter II stockpiles reps without making costly mistakes. He’ll make one mistake over a period of time where the average cornerback would have made two mistakes.

That’s where Carter II adds value. He won’t lose you the game. At a position like cornerback where a blunder can cause more damage than almost any other position, that is an extremely valuable trait to have.

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Michael Nania is one of the best analytical New York Jets minds in the world, combining his statistical expertise with game film to add proper context to the data. Nania scrapes every corner, ensuring you know all there is to know about everyone from the QB to the long snapper. Nania's Numbers, Nania's QB Grades, and Nania's All-22 give fans a deeper and more well-rounded dive into the Jets than anyone else can offer. Email: michael.nania[at]jetsxfactor.com - Twitter: @Michael_Nania
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ncjetsfan
ncjetsfan
4 months ago

How is he only ranked 7th when his 4.33 is lower than the top 6? Bryce Callahan should have been #1, but he didn’t have enough snaps. Adoree Jackson was the next best, and then MC II. This makes zero sense to me. MC’s gave up fewer TDs, which is more important than penalties, and had fewer penalties than Nate Hobbs and Casey Hayward. Please explain, as these rankings make zero sense with the explanation given above. How was Kendall Fuller’s rating #1 and a score of 6.08 when he committed a penalty and gave up 3 TDs? That is only 3.33 less than the league average.

How can he be expected to produce TOs when most of the passes thrown against him were dump-offs and screens? By the time he gets to the receiver, the receiver has had a chance to secure the ball. This is why analytics and statistics are so often meaningless imo. They are deceiving.

ncjetsfan
ncjetsfan
4 months ago
Reply to  Michael Nania

Thanks for the reply explaining this rating scheme to me. I still find it odd as with most NFL stats, they just use a minimum number of snaps and then rank the players based on what they achieved, gave up, etc. I don’t know about other sports, but I also think it’s odd that the NFL and MLB are combining stats to come up with a new stat. Penalties committed and TDs given up are two totally separate things and most likely have very different reasons or causes for why they happened. I don’t think the two should be combined into one stat, but that’s just my opinion. Thanks again for the explanation.

Daniel Johnston
Daniel Johnston
4 months ago

I had no idea he was this solid. Considering that he was a rookie, a 5th round pick out of Duke, playing one of the hardest positions in all of sports, I’d say he more than held his own. Definitely a lot to be optimistic about.

hh11212
hh11212
4 months ago

Definitely excited to see what he can do in yr 2. Hopefully he can be a better man CB this yr. If he can do that he can help take our defense to another level.

BigJetsFan1
BigJetsFan1
4 months ago

MC 2 has great confidence. Getting to play so many rooks and 2nd yr players will payoff big time for us. I see great things starting to happen. We are on the rise

verge tibbs
verge tibbs
4 months ago

Guidry was very good at keeping gains short and forcing fumbles before mc2 came around. Hopefully they continue to push each other and the turnovers start happening again.

Robert725
Robert725
4 months ago

He is a good problem for the team to have! Just extend This season! Can’t wait!

Jimjets
Jimjets
4 months ago

Considering he was a rookie and playing with so many other rookie or young players and that he was a 5th round pick I think those numbers are amazing. Will be great to see what playing with Reed Whitehead and Sauce with a year of solid pro experience will do for MC squared.