Is it on the play-caller, quarterback, supporting cast, or all three?
Zach Wilson‘s time to step up to the plate is officially here.
Despite the trade for James Robinson, Wilson can no longer hide behind the explosiveness of Breece Hall en route to victories. Now, it’s on his shoulders to do more than just avoid the catastrophic mistake.
The argument throughout the season has been that New York Jets offensive coordinator Mike LaFleur is not putting Wilson in the best position to succeed. As fans watch other teams dink-and-dunk their way into solid drives, they blame LaFleur for not putting Wilson in a position to do the same. “Where are the slants, the quick game, the screen passes?” they ask with chagrin.
The question is if that criticism is accurate. Has LaFleur not dialed up such plays, or has Wilson just missed the reads? Is it receivers running the wrong routes, clever defensive scheming to throw off the quick opportunities, or offensive line woes causing batted balls and a QB running for his life?
First, let’s take a look at some of the numbers to explain what’s going on with the Jets’ offense. Then we’ll see what the film has to say.
Vitor Paiva already broke down Wilson’s struggles against Denver, but we’ll double up on some of his points to demonstrate what happened vs. the Broncos.
Jets’ play-calling breakdown
Earlier in the season, the Jets’ play-calling was heavily skewed toward the pass. During Joe Flacco’s starts, the Jets passed a whopping 75% of the time, per nflfastR play-by-play data. A large part of that was certainly due to the fact that the Jets trailed for most of his snaps, but even when the score was relatively close (within 10 points in the first three quarters of the game), they passed the ball two-thirds of the time.
Since Zach Wilson’s return, that split has been much more even. In total, the Jets have passed 49.5% of the time and run 50.5% of the time. That’s about as even as it gets. If we remove the last two drives of the Steelers game, that number switches to 53.5% run and 46.5% pass.
Some have speculated that the Jets have used such a run-pass split because they don’t trust Wilson. However, the more probable reason is that it has worked. Which offensive coordinator wouldn’t continue to run the ball with Breece Hall if he’s averaging over five yards per carry? This is magnified even more when you consider that the Jets have just come off games against two of the league’s best pass defenses in Green Bay and Denver.
Additionally, as Michael Nania explained, the Jets have been leading or tied almost the entire time for the last three games. The Jets never trailed in two of Wilson’s four games (MIA and GB), and in a third (DEN), they only trailed for 3:37.
That being said, there is room to wonder why LaFleur passed so often against the Broncos. The Jets called 23 run plays and 29 pass plays, which was certainly not what anyone expected against the league’s best pass defense.
Digging deeper into the numbers may indicate why the Jets were so pass-heavy.
On second down this season, the Jets have passed 67% of the time overall. Against Denver, they passed on second down 76% of the time. The reason for that is simple: the Jets were not successful on first downs that did not result in another first down. On those first down plays (excluding the last drive inside two minutes to go), the Jets averaged just 3.38 yards per play, including 3.83 yards per pass (six attempts) and 3.1 yards per rush (10 attempts).
When you’re averaging 6.7 yards to go on second down, it’s not attractive to keep running the ball. The Jets did try to establish the run game, but other than two big plays (Hall’s touchdown and a 25-yard jet sweep by Braxton Berrios), it largely didn’t work. Would Jets fans have been happier if LaFleur ran the ball again on second down in those scenarios?
On third down, the Jets averaged seven yards to go, which meant that they were passing almost exclusively. This explains why the Jets passed more than they ran the ball: the run game was getting stuffed, for the most part, and they were trying to find a spark.
It can be argued that the Jets’ 3.83 yards per pass on first down indicates that LaFleur did not call easy plays on first down. Let’s dig into the film to see if that’s the case, among other things.
Jets @ Broncos
Vitor Paiva and Michael Nania have already reviewed large chunks of this game with a focus on Wilson’s performance. I’m going to try to focus more on the play-calling rather than Wilson himself.
(15:00 – 1st) 1st & 10 at NYJ 25: Z.Wilson pass incomplete deep right to T.Conklin.
On the Jets’ first offensive snap of the game, everyone and their mother would have expected a run play. After all, the Broncos’ pass defense is one of the best in the league, and their mediocre run defense seemingly played right into the Jets’ strengths.
Recognizing that, Mike LaFleur came out in shotgun with a 3×1 set. The Broncos show a quarters coverage look before the snap but rotate into Cover 3 after. LaFleur dialed up the dagger concept, which is a known Cover 3 beater: C.J. Uzomah on the hitch underneath, Tyler Conklin on the deeper seam, and Corey Davis on the dig route underneath.
The concept works to perfection, and Davis is as wide open as you can be. This should have been one of those nice drive-opening completions that we’ve seen periodically when Wilson is right.
If Wilson had completed this pass, fans would have been praising LaFleur for doing the opposite of the defense’s expectation. It was a perfect call to get the offense in a rhythm. Who’s at fault here?
An NFL quarterback must be able to make this play. No excuses.
2nd & 10 at NYJ 25 (14:55 – 1st) Z.Wilson pass incomplete short right. Penalty on NYJ-N.Herbig, Ineligible Downfield Pass, declined.
This was supposed to be a screen pass. You can see Nate Herbig and Connor McGovern leak out on the play. However, Laken Tomlinson double-teams D.J. Jones, allowing DeShawn Williams a free ride to Zach Wilson. At the very least, a chip needed to be in place there to set up the screen.
As you can see, it was a well-set-up play, and Breece Hall was in a position to gain a nice chunk of yardage. Instead, Wilson was running for his life from the outset and had no chance.
That’s actually a really nice play call by LaFleur following the first-down miss. It gave the Jets another opportunity to get in a rhythm. Tomlinson just blew it, which has been a common theme for the Jets this season, unfortunately.
2nd & 6 at NYJ 31 (7:59 – 1st) Z.Wilson pass short right to B.Berrios pushed ob at NYJ 38 for 7 yards (P.Surtain).
On the Jets’ third drive of the game, Zach Wilson rolled out and scrambled for four yards on the first play. On the second down play, LaFleur could’ve called either a run or pass, technically. (A run play is considered a success if it gains at least 60% of the needed yards on second down; 60% of six is 3.6, which is not too much to ask.)
However, LaFleur instead called a play designed to move the chains. The quick play-action fake and throw to Braxton Berrios was well-designed, well-blocked, and well-executed all around, particularly considering the two-high looks that the Broncos showed all day.
You can see before the snap that this play will likely work. The Broncos do shift after the snap into quarter-quarter-half (it appears) instead of the apparent quarters before the snap, but either way, the left cornerback has depth and isn’t close enough to come down and blow up the play. That means there are only two defenders in the vicinity of the Jets’ three pass-catchers on that side following Berrios’s motion. By the time the linebacker and corner read the play, Berrios is already outside Davis and Uzomah’s blocks.
The next play? Breece Hall’s 62-yard touchdown run (which is now painful in its reminder of what the Jets have lost).
2nd & 6 at NYJ 29 (0:54 – 1st) Z.Wilson sacked at NYJ 19 for -10 yards (D.Jones). Denver challenged the runner was down by contact ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.)
After a four-yard gain on first down, LaFleur once again could’ve gone run or pass. Perhaps you could get on him here for calling a pass play, but again, moving the chains on second down is a valuable thing.
The question could be why the Jets didn’t try a quick slant. However, Corey Davis’s route is definitely cleared out very effectively by the deeper routes on the left side, and Wilson still could have hit him wide open after he spun out of the initial pressure. As Vitor explained, Zach’s eyes should have been to the left immediately once he spun out of the pressure, since, after all, the play was a boot to the left, which is where all the routes were going. If he gets his eyes there quickly, he can hit Davis easily.
Once he doesn’t see Davis, though, Wilson needs to get rid of this ball. His desire to play backyard hero ball almost led to disaster, and many would argue that the play should have been called a fumble. Since Wilson’s game against Pittsburgh, in which he got rid of the ball well, he’s had several plays where he tried to do too much instead of living to play another down.
I don’t necessarily like the bootlegs to the left that LaFleur has been calling, since Wilson is a right-handed thrower, and those passes are that much harder to complete. Still, there is room for Zach to succeed here. If the initial tackler had gotten him, then there’s nothing he really could have done; but once Wilson evades the first tackler, he needs to know where his checkdowns are and then either get the ball to them or throw it away.
3rd & 16 at NYJ 19 (0:41 – 1st) Z.Wilson sacked at NYJ 14 for -5 yards (D.Jones).
Vitor reviewed this play, as well. The presnap look screams quarter-quarter-half, which, indeed, is the coverage. Mike LaFleur has a perfect play called, as the route combination of Michael Carter and Garrett Wilson puts high-low conflict on the curl-flat defender. Wilson gets flustered and instead of stepping up and keeping his eyes downfield to throw to the other Wilson, he’s ready to bail the pocket, leading to a sack.
Even in dangerous territory on third and 16 from deep in his own territory, LaFleur had a good call. The Jets’ offensive line wasn’t perfect (Connor McGovern got caught too far inside when picking up a stunt), but they gave Wilson enough time to make his read and get the ball out to the open guy. Zach just couldn’t execute.
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2nd & 6 at 50 (10:41 – 2nd) Z.Wilson pass short left to B.Berrios to 50 for no gain (J.Cooper).
Once again, the Jets gain four yards on a first-down run, leading to a second and six. I think that this play might be somewhat due to Wilson panicking from pressure. The Jets have a three-on-three matchup on the right side, and the play appears to be set up for a screen to Breece Hall, which would have gained some nice yardage. When the Broncos back off and send a blitz at the snap, it makes the play call even more advantageous, as it’s now three-on-three with no safety up top, since the safety took the blitzer’s place.
Whenever there is a free rusher, it is ideal to throw into the blitz, because that means there’s a defender missing on that side. With the way this was blocked up, it could have been a house call or a large gain had the screen gone to Hall.
1st & 25 at NYJ 30 (2:00 – 2nd) Z.Wilson pass short left to Mi.Carter pushed ob at DEN 33 for 37 yards (J.Simmons).
As Vitor broke down, this was a great play by Wilson in manipulating the defender with his eyes by looking at Denzel Mims. If not for that look, Carter gets tackled for a small gain.
It’s important to point out that this is also a good play call with the back and receiver crossing to clear out defenders. Good play call, great execution.
(It’s not worth wondering what would have happened on that play if Breece Hall was the receiver instead of Carter.)
1st & 10 at DEN 33 (1:51 – 2nd) Z.Wilson pass short right to D.Mims to DEN 29 for 4 yards (K.Williams).
Notice how many screen calls LaFleur used in this game. Calling a screen a “pass” is generous, as it often functions as a run play. That’s another reason that the Jets passed more than they ran.
The Jets sore missed Corey Davis’s blocking on this play, as Garrett Wilson doesn’t get enough leverage to let Mims fight for additional yardage.
2nd & 6 at DEN 29 (1:12 – 2nd) Z.Wilson pass short left to G.Wilson to DEN 23 for 6 yards (K.Williams).
This is a stick-moving play-call. It does move the sticks, but not without another bad throw from Wilson due to poor mechanics. As Vitor noted, Wilson’s foot is turned inside rather than towards the sideline, forcing Garrett Wilson to contort his body to catch the ball rather than making an easy reception.
If you want the short passing game, you got a lot of it in this game. Maybe they weren’t slants, but there were plenty of easy opportunities for Zach Wilson.
3rd & 3 at NYJ 45 (10:31 – 3rd) Z.Wilson pass incomplete short middle to T.Conklin [J.Griffith].
This is a bad play by the offensive line. Duane Brown is beaten by his man off the snap, and Zach Wilson never really had a chance.
My gripe here is with LaFleur. It’s third and short. The Broncos have blitzed from all over the place all game, you’re down your best offensive lineman in Alijah Vera-Tucker, and the whole line has been scuffling. Why not keep in an extra pass protector or have a contingency plan for the blitz? It did not appear that he had any answers at all for the blitz, let alone good ones.
3rd & 7 at NYJ 35 (6:46 – 3rd) Z.Wilson pass incomplete short left to G.Wilson.
Could Zach Wilson have dumped the ball off to Michael Carter had he been looking that way? Yes. Did Mike LaFleur have any answers for the blitz? No. The Jets were overmatched at the line. Duane Brown whiffed once again. Why is there no extra protection? LaFleur didn’t even leave in a running back to chip despite having a backup-backup-backup right tackle in the game.
1st & 10 at NYJ 14 (4:31 – 3rd) Z.Wilson pass short right to Mi.Carter pushed ob at NYJ 22 for 8 yards (D.Mathis).
Another easy first down play call. Uzomah’s route holds the curl-flat defender just enough to get Michael Carter a nice eight-yard checkdown. Those who say that LaFleur isn’t dialing up easy plays for Wilson are discounting the Broncos game.
Duane Brown’s false start on the second-down play really killed the potential for this drive.
2nd & 7 at NYJ 17 (3:43 – 3rd) Z.Wilson sacked at NYJ 16 for -1 yards (sack split by N.Bonitto and M.Purcell).
This was supposed to be another receiver screen. You can see Berrios go out for it. It looks like Wilson got flustered by the pressure immediately instead of keeping cool and getting the throw off, resulting in a scramble and a one-yard sack. Although Denzel Mims didn’t get the greatest leverage on his block, it would have been fine if Wilson got the ball to Berrios in the rhythm of the play.
In terms of the pressure, Laken Tomlinson was beaten straight up by D.J. Jones. It was a miserable game for the pricey free-agent guard. The play call was good for a 2nd-and-7. Another replacement run call with the screen with the potential to work because of the depth of the Broncos’ coverage.
This pretty much summarizes what happened for the Jets’ offense in this game: lots of short passes and screen calls, some bad offensive line play, several poor throws by Zach Wilson, and at times a lack of adjustment to the blitz from LaFleur.
Is it on Mike LaFleur?
While I didn’t want to make this article stretch on forever by reviewing film from Wilson’s other three games, it’s clear that Mike LaFleur’s play-calling did not hold Wilson back against the Broncos. The biggest knock on him is that he didn’t do a great job adjusting to the blitz. While that is definitely a knock, it wasn’t the main reason for the pressure that Wilson faced. A far bigger one was simply poor offensive line play.
Fans have been calling for short passing and screens this whole season. LaFleur employed a steady stream of such passes against Denver. True, there weren’t a ton of slants over the middle, but there were other routes (hitches, checkdowns, quick outs, stops) that were open enough to get into a rhythm. It seemed that every time the Jets started to get something going, it would be negated by either a sack or penalty.
The game in which I thought LaFleur’s play-calling was the most suspect was Miami. Considering how poor Miami’s defense had been over the middle, I had expected more easy routes and throws in that direction, but many of the routes in this game were pretty far outside. It wasn’t the pass/run breakdown that was head-scratching so much as the route concepts, although it’s possible that Wilson elected to throw outside because it’s in his comfort zone (or that he did not see those routes due to his lack of height).
Against Green Bay, fans were dunking on LaFleur’s play-calling in the first half, but Robby Sabo pointed out that his strategy worked.
Notice, LaFleur has saved the RPO/middle-of-field game with Zach Wilson for the END OF THE GAME/fourth quarter.
That one pops for Conklin. Great strategy. #Jets
— Robby Sabo (@RobbySabo) October 16, 2022
Earlier in the game, Green Bay’s defense was prepared for everything the Jets were throwing at them. You can wonder why LaFleur didn’t scheme up easier throws for him, but the Packers had everything covered. Later in the game, the run game got going, and then some plays came open over the middle.
It’s easy to blame the play-caller for offensive struggles, but the reality is that LaFleur has mostly done a very good job with his play-calling. He’s been patient and is setting up teams properly. It’s not on the play-caller when he has good plays schemed with players open and the quarterback just misses the easy throw.
Elijah Moore conundrum
We all know what’s going on with Elijah Moore. Unhappy with his lack of targets, wants a trade, didn’t play last week. The Jets are going to need Moore to reprise his 2021 role as a focal point in this offense.
This is one area in which I would place some blame on Mike LaFleur. Moore has run go routes 33% of the time, which, as we’ve discussed several times, makes little sense for a 5’9″, 180-pound receiver. Furthermore, Joe Blewett has detailed that Moore does not stack defensive backs well, which does not allow him to get any separation or leverage to win on a deep ball.
Moore’s ideal usage is over the middle in space against a zone. The Jets could have really used him in that area against Denver. LaFleur has been stubborn about this so far. Hopefully, with everything that has gone down the last week-plus, the Jets will fin a way to get Moore going.
Offensive line + Wilson
The Jets’ pass protection did not hold up well against the Broncos, and that’s definitely to blame for some of Wilson’s struggles. However, even on the plays in which he had time, Wilson was consistently late and tentative with his decision-making, and his throws were off due to his mechanics.
With Alijah Vera-Tucker out for the season, the offensive line could become a crippling point for Wilson’s development. However, not all pressures are created equal; Wilson bears some responsibility for 16.7% of his pressures, per Pro Football Focus, the 13th-highest among QBs. Furthermore, as Michael Nania explained, Wilson’s passing numbers under pressure are the worst in the league by far, mitigating the excuse of a bad offensive line.
Jets fans need to stop making excuses for Zach Wilson. Yes, the circumstances aren’t ideal, but it’s not the play-calling. Sometimes it’s the offensive line, but there are way too many plays on which the quarterback does not execute.
This Jets team has been an underdog all year and faces the hated Patriots as underdogs at home on Sunday. A big game from their QB would go a long way to silence the doubters, but even just a game in which Wilson’s decision-making and mechanics are solid would help stop the scuffle.
It’s go time for Zach Wilson. Time to show Joe Douglas that his all-in mentality was worth it. Time to show Jets fans that he can be the guy.
Rivka, great job with this, and thank you for taking the time.
I’m not sure that a review, albeit extensive, of one game can answer the question posed; is it Zach or is it LaFleur?
Clearly, in this game it was Zach. This and Vitor’s piece showed the misses, the hesitancy and the poor choices. Idk why the regression happened in this game, meaning mostly the hesitancy. You didn’t include the double-clutch throw to Conklin, which was horrendous.
My problem with the whole issue is that Zach has played 17 games now, the equivalent of one season. The recent injuries and unforeseen success have created an impression that now Zach must be THEE guy to keep the ball rolling. The circumstances don’t change the fact that he is still one year into his growth. Yet, expectations have gone hyper.
I am not a Zach apologist, I want him to succeed simply because he is the Jets’ quarterback. There is no doubt that he has been less than stellar so far
Josh Allen’s QBR in his first year was close to 49.8. It went down in in his second year!
This type of microscope would have run him out of town before his leap in year three.
Zach’s QBR for the games in 2021 was 33.4. This year it’s 48.6
I am not young, and I am impatient for a Jets’ Superbowl, but circumstances do not change the fact that we need more time to judge Zach (and Mike LaFleur)
I would tend to agree that one game does not answer that question, but that was why I put the numbers section in. I’m focusing on the four games this season rather than last year because of the significant talent disparity in the skill positions.
I think you can question some of LaFleur’s play calls in the first half against Green Bay, his third-and-short empty sets, and not attacking the middle against Miami. The Denver game was the most worrisome precisely because Wilson’s struggles were largely on him.
I didn’t include a few of Zach’s misses because of the repeat of Vitor – I was trying to show other plays. But yes, that Conklin one was also bad.
I don’t know if the impression that Zach needs to be the guy to keep winning is inaccurate. Without AVT, the run-blocking is going to be suspect, and without Breece, the home-run threat is gone. They’re going to need Wilson to step up. I don’t want to talk about Josh Allen, and that was never my expectation going into this season. But I think Zach needs to play like Daniel Jones for the Jets to win. Is that too big of an ask? Yes, Jones is faster than Zach and has more of a run threat, but he’s making it work with a receiving corps far inferior to the Jets’. You can say that it’s on LaFleur for not scheming things open like Daboll/Kafka have, but I don’t think that’s necessarily the case. Zach has missed a number of easy reads because he’s afraid to make a mistake.
Zach’s QBR is better because he’s not turning the ball over as much, and that’s obviously important. I just think that he’s sacrificed his flow in the game for it, and I don’t know if that’s serving him or the Jets well right now. This Patriots game is going to be really tough, and they’re not going to give him those easy reads over the middle with their aggressive man coverage. He may need to beat them with his arm, and that means letting it rip into narrower windows on the outside and trusting his receivers to make a play. Corey Davis’s absence could really bite in this game, but throwing a 50-50 ball to Denzel Mims isn’t the worst thing in the world.
Well said.
Yes, I would like to see Zach be more like Daniel Jones, and a running QB is what killed NE on Monday. Not sure if Zach is being told not to run b/c of fear of injury or if he’s just hesitant on his own.
I didn’t put Josh out there to compare talent/expectations, but simply to show that it may take more than one and a half years to determine what we have.
Ideally, I would love to see designed QB runs for Zach, because what he doesn’t have in raw speed he often makes up for in elusiveness. That jump cut he made against Denver (the same exact one that he got hurt on in preseason) showcased how hard he can be to tackle one-on-one. I don’t think he’s being told not to run, but it’s possible.
I understand the comparison to Josh Allen, and I even wrote my own in the offseason, but the counterargument is that Allen is used as a model because he’s one-of-a-kind. If you look at Jalen Hurts, his QBR has increased from 33.8 to 54.6 to a current 59.0. Tua Tagovailoa has gone from 44.8 to 55.7 to a current 72.6. Derek Carr went from 42.1 to 43.1 to 56.1. I like those career trajectories as better comparisons than Allen, who is a freak of nature.
Very good job of breaking down the film and demonstrating that some plays were well designed, well executed and called at an appropriate time. Your analysis largely makes sense to me.
To be fair to Zach Wilson, the Denver pass rush looked more like a jailbreak than an organized pass rush. I suspect by game end running for his life got into Zach Wilson’s head. And, as many analysts have said many times, no QB is comfortable with pressure up the middle.
What I didn’t see was a bunch of plays where Zach missed an open receiver. This alone is a positive. And I’m willing to place a lot of the criticism on the offensive line. They were clearly overmatched, probably to the point where chip blocks would have had minimal impact. I don’t know how great a game any QB would have with that type of pass protection.
I agree about the jailbreak Denver pass rush, and I blame Laken Tomlinson, Connor McGovern (who calls the protections), and LaFleur for that. They had no answers for the blitz – not answers that didn’t work, but just none, period. That was bad and can’t happen against the Patriots.
I actually did not include the plays on which Zach missed a wide-open receiver in this article because they were more repeats of what Vitor (and Joe Blewett later) analyzed. However, there were four specific plays in which this happened: the first miss to Davis on the dig (which I detailed), a sack on which Garrett Wilson was as wide open as they come (and Wilson did glance his way but for some reason didn’t throw the ball), the miss over the middle to Uzomah, and another one where he bailed the pocket and had his eyes in the middle of the field even though all his options were to the left, because it was a rollout, and Davis was wide open (on that play, he was staring down Uzomah and could’ve thrown it to him, too, but he just didn’t pull the trigger). Additionally, there was a play where he double-clutched to a wide-open Conklin and cost a chance at 10 yards of YAC.
The offensive line was bad, but some of that was on Zach. When he missed the read he should’ve made, the pressure got home. He also missed throws when he had time.
I disagree with several of your analyses in this article. For starters, Wilson doesn’t need to hide behind anyone. That comment was uncalled and clearly demonstrates your bias.
Second, there is more to how a QB plays than just his fundamentals and his ability to read a D and make his progressions smoothly and quickly. Zach needs to improve in these areas, but in TC and in his first couple of games, his footwork, his reading of Ds and making good, quick decisions was happening. That has gotten shaky as injuries have decimated the OL, and there have been new players each game and during the game. That will affect a QB, as a QB has to trust his OL to be relaxed and be able to play at his best. Zach was running for his life much of the Denver game. He had new OL, and then AVT got hurt. A QB also has to trust that his WRs and TEs are going to run their routes correctly. Either that hasn’t been happening or a number of MLF’s pass plays are very poorly designed,as Moore was responsible for the interception vs Pittsburgh because he didn’t continue his route and draw his defender out of the area. There have also been quite a few plays where there have been 2 WRs in the same area and that should not happen. I recommend that you watch Kurt Warner’s video analysis on YouTube of Zach’s play, the play design and play calling. Maybe that will help you to see where you are mistakingly blaming Zach for everything and absolving MLF and Zach’s teammates.
Third, the OC has more impact upon his QB than just with his play calling. There is the matter of play design, and according to Kurt Warner (whom I trust more than either Vitor Paiva, Michael, or you), there are quite a few problems with MLF’s play design. More importantly, their job is not only to develop their young QB, but to help him to get into a rhythm at the start of games, particularly on the road and vs tough opponents. Wise OCs do that. Clueless OCs do not. IMO MLF clearly falls into the latter category at this point.He still is making the same mistakes he did last season when he’s trying to exploit weaknesses in the opponent’s D rather than focusing on helping Zach and the offense get on track. In only one game this season has MLF called an easy pass or two first thing to get Zach into a rhythm, and I think Vitor pointed out the time that MLF did that in his video following that game (but it might have been Tim Jenkins). In no other game has MLF done that. On the first play you analyze he has Zach throwing a tough 30-yard pass on his first throw, on the road against perhaps the best D in the NFL, and certainly one of the top 2 passing defenses. That is not smart, and it’s not helping your young QB who has been struggling. If Zach was a veteran QB and had been playing well, then that play call could have been a good one, but when your young QB has been struggling with his accuracy partly due to poor execution by his OL and teammates and partly due to all the injuries to the OL, it’s a horrible call.
Play calling is more than just the balance between the run and the pass. It’s a matter of setting up plays so that they will work, and helping your young QB get settled and into a rhythm at the start of the game. Being predictable in play calling is bad, and when the Jets run mostly on 1st down and pass on 2nd down, that is predicable and makes the opposing team’s defense’s job easier, not more difficult.
On the first play you analyze, that is a tough throw on the road for a young QB who has been struggling.
There’s also the matter of how they are making Zach play. Ultra cautiously, playing not to lose, not to make a mistake, and basically being a game manager. Zach is NOT a game manager type, nor is he a pocket passer. He is a rhythm thrower, and used to throwing on the move. If MLF really wanted to help Zach, he wouldn’t be trying to force him to become a pocket passer. He’d do the same thing Baltimore did and design the offense around what Zach does well. There’d be more rollouts to the right and RPOs. So there’s little wonder,.between how he is being made to play, between all the injuries to the OL, the poor execution by his teammates, bad play design, and his OC not putting him in a position to succeed, why Zach is struggling right now.
But go ahead and join the other members of the media and ignorant Jets fans who are down on Zach and being ultracritical, but you’re going to look bad when Zach starts playing lights out either here or elsewhere when he gets to play with a quality OC. I guarantee you that if Brian Daboll was the HC, you wouldn’t be seeing Zach struggle like this.
Yes! it’s true Zack Wilson needs to be better but I saw way too many plays with 3 guys bearing down on hin from different areas.
There’s pressure and there’s guys on you as soon as the ball is snapped with a couple of friends in tow .
Wilson just hit his one year mark and with all the weapons brought in to help him, the most important, the O-line was like a swinging gate.
When you’re pressure that much by multiple defenders you’re not going to feel comfortable even when you have a beat to throw.
Who knows what we do without AVT but you read it here first. Zack beats Bellichecks genius this week.
Both can be true: the Jets’ offensive line was horrendous, and Zach Wilson did not make the plays he should have made. He had plays where he was sacked because he missed his read. That’s on the QB.
Ogbuehi vs. Judon is a seriously scary matchup for the Jets. If that matchup goes poorly, it might spur Joe Douglas to make a move, even if it’s above his preferred price tag.
Great review, much appreciated. My biggest criticisms of Lafleur has been he seems to be predictable pre-snap. Throwing 67% on second down, having empty sets on 3rd and short are a few examples. I think this allows the defense to disregard run defense, which leads to extra pressure on the Oline/Wilson. What are your thoughts on my thoughts?
All this being said, I like Lafleur.
I like LaFleur too, and when you look at Vitor’s breakdown he clearly had some nice plays dialed up vs. what he expected Denver to be doing on defense. I actually like him a lot. I think he’s versatile and can adapt. He’s still a new play caller and they have lots of young guys so I think they are still learning each other. I don’t think there is a “disservice” as much as just a growing process.
I think they will look much different after the bye week. This is a key game this week, get a win and it sets the table, for now, I’m all about win by any means possible. The expansion will happen.
Exactly. If you read the article, you’ll see that my answer to my question was, “No, he’s not.”
I agree that this is a key week, but I don’t think it’s just about wins at this point. It’s really about Zach Wilson. With Breece and AVT gone, he’s going to have to step up.
I know I was just repeating, and I do think Zach will have to step up but maybe they will be just as effective in the run game.
Good points, specifically about empty on third down. I don’t think that throwing a lot on second down is inherently a problem, especially since many of those passes have been play-action in which the defense does bite on the run fake. Jets fans would be far more upset if LaFleur dialed up run plays on 2nd and 8 on a consistent basis.
On third and short, I don’t know what the rationale is behind going empty. You’re telegraphing what you’re going to do. Even on fourth and short, the Jets have thrown on all of their attempts this year. It seems to indicate a curious lack of trust in the running backs. Maybe having James Robinson in the backfield will change how they approach short-yardage situations.
I disagree with it being a great review, but agree with the rest of your post except liking LaFleur. I want to like him and had high hopes for him initially, but he is doing Zach no favors. Zach is the future. Unless MLF learns and learns quickly, I want him gone at the end of the season before he ruins Zach.
Bringing in new play-caller is NOT going to help Zach. Both Zach and MLF have had their rookie/2nd yr struggles. They need to work through them together.