Sometimes you are not what your record says you are
Heading on the road to face a 9-2 team is generally a daunting task.
However, the Minnesota Vikings may just be the worst 9-2 team in NFL history.
That is not to say that the Jets should overlook the Vikings; the Jets cannot overlook anyone in their playoff push. However, this is not nearly as difficult a matchup as the following week, when the Jets head into West New York to face the Buffalo Bills.
Football Outsiders, the analytics website that is the home of DVOA, lists a metric called Estimated Wins (EW) to approximate how many wins the team should have considering their performance in high-leverage situations, including red zone defense, first quarter offense, and performance in the second half when the score is close. The number is adjusted for a league-average schedule and a league-average fumble recovery rate.
The Jets are listed at 6.9 EW, which is pretty much on par with their actual win total. It’s listed as the ninth-most in football. One caveat is that the Jets have faced and defeated five backup quarterbacks, so they may have been given too much credit by DVOA for some of their victories.
However, the Vikings are listed at just 4.8 EW. 4.8 for a team that has nine victories! No other team has even close to that big a discrepancy between their actual wins and Estimated Wins. The next-closest team is the Giants, who have seven victories but just 4.7 EW. That’s a difference of 2.3 victories, whereas the Vikings’ difference is 4.2.
This tells you that there are many factors other than superior play promoting the Vikings’ great record. In fact, the Vikings are the first 9-2 team since at least 1982 (the farthest back that DVOA is currently tracked) to have a negative team DVOA, and it’s not just negative, but significantly so. The Vikings are 22nd in the NFL in total DVOA at -9.2%. For reference, teams like Cleveland, Green Bay, Detroit, Pittsburgh, and Atlanta have a better total DVOA than Minnesota.
Furthermore, Minnesota’s supposed strength on offense, their passing game, does not pass muster with DVOA. Though the Vikings rank 7th in the NFL with 240.9 passing yards per game, their pass DVOA is 20th in the NFL, which is one spot behind the Jets. This means that while Minnesota may pile up passing yards, their efficiency is poor.
Meanwhile, the Jets’ defense is the reverse: they will allow yardage at times but are highly efficient in preventing points. They are eighth with 197.5 passing yards allowed per game, which isn’t shabby at all, but their pass defense DVOA is ranked fifth.
A lot of that is due to sacks and turnovers in high-leverage situations. In fact, the Jets rank 7th in the NFL with 25 sacks when the opponent is inside the Jets’ 40, which is just about the edge of field goal range. They’re ninth with a 51.7% red zone TD rate allowed, and that number has been even better in their past three games when they’ve allowed just 28.6% of red zone drives to end in TDs (T-2nd in that span).
The Vikings’ pass defense, meanwhile, presents a chance for Mike White & Co. to keep up the positive momentum they started vs. the Bears. Minnesota is 27th in pass defense DVOA. They’re dead-last in allowing 276.1 passing yards per game. Mac Jones just shredded them for a career-high 382 yards. They are also 29th in defensive DVOA against the opponent’s No. 1 receiver. Garrett Wilson is eagerly awaiting this matchup.
This is an exploitable matchup for the Jets. There are still areas that favor Minnesota, but the overall numbers trend in Gang Green’s favor.
However, the game isn’t played on paper. Let’s see if the Jets can get it done.
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Jets 32, Vikings 26.
I wouldn’t be shocked if the defense is better than that, although Hockenson and Cook is a dangerous pairing for the linebackers and safeties.
You raise some very valid points. I have seen chunks of several Vikings games and can make the following observations. First, Kirk Cousins has been steady, but not spectacular as you might expect the QB on 9-2 team. Second, they needed a miracle to beat Buffalo and were lucky to beat Detroit and New England. Team that live on the edge have no margin for error and generally have a major failure which derails the season. In other words, come playoff time they are headed for an epic fail.
Third, the Vikings have scored 3 more points than they allowed all season. For a 9-2 team? Seriously? t\The Dallas game accounts for 37 points toward that statistic, but still, for a 9-2 team you would expect better.
Fourth, Mac Jones ran up 382 passing yards on the Vikings, much of which came directly after a Vikings score. What does that tell you about their defense?
Fifth, they seem to live or die by the big play, generally by Jefferson or Cook. Against Dallas they allowed big play after big play on defense.
Sixth, the Dallas pass rush harassed Cousins all game. The Jets field a similarly competent pass rush.
All told, I see the Jets as very competitive this week. A victory by the Vikings is by no means assured and I would not be at all shocked if the Jets win handily.
Honestly, if you look at the spread for the game, Vegas thinks this would essentially be a pick ’em on a neutral site. The points you raised are a big part of that.
As I said, the Jets can’t overlook anyone, but there is certainly the possibility to ring up big numbers in this game.
No idea what any of these numbers mean but the comparison to the Giants is interesting. Kinda makes me wonder who would win a Jets-Giants regular season matchup if these 2 teams played each other this season. Good article.
Stop pretending that you’re not a med school student. You can understand these numbers and clearly did if you brought up the Giants comparison.
Some in this neck of the woods are hoping for a Jets-Giants Super Bowl. To be honest, I think the Jets would skin the Giants’ hide.