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If you’re a New York Jets fan, you likely know that as good as Josh Allen is, he’s one of the more fallible superstar quarterbacks in the NFL. Take advantage of that knowledge when you bet on anyone else but Allen to win the 2023 NFL MVP Award with bet365.
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Bet Against Josh Allen to Win NFL MVP
At Jets X-Factor, we covered both 2022 Jets-Bills, peeling through every nook and cranny of Buffalo’s stats and film to find the strengths and weaknesses of the West New York juggernaut. The theme that emerged: make Josh Allen beat himself.
As the media and the analytics gurus salivate over Allen’s arm and otherworldly athleticism, prescient fans notice that he is just as apt to throw up a head-scratching ball into double coverage as he is to make one of his acrobatic hero-ball leaps or pinpoint touchdown throws.
bet365 and other sportsbooks are still bullish on Allen. They have him tied with both Patrick Mahomes and Joe Burrow for the leading odds to win the 2023 MVP award at +700. However, you’d be far better off laying your money on Mahomes or Burrow than the inconsistent and highly variant Allen. Look no further than his 2022 playoff performance as a sample of what has happened to Allen rather often over the last two seasons.
Allen had the ninth-highest rate of dropped interception-worthy throws among 38 qualified QBs (min. 175 dropbacks). This is despite the fact that he also had the 12th-highest interception rate at 2.5%. His overall turnover-worthy play rate of 4.2% was tied for the fifth-highest in the NFL, smack among names like Justin Fields, Carson Wentz, and Matt Ryan.
While Allen’s 9.7-yard average depth of target had something to do with that—more deep throws tend to be far riskier, and he makes enough big-time throws to seemingly make up for his errors—this in and of itself points to a large flaw in his game. Never was it more apparent than in the Bills’ nail-biting Divisional Round victory over the Skylar Thompson-led Dolphins.
With Buffalo up 17 points and the game seemingly on ice, Allen just could not check the ball down. He kept chucking the ball deep and trying to play hero ball, allowing Miami to hang in a game that should have long since been over.
The 2020 iteration of Allen learned to move past the hero ball tendencies and become a check-down Charlie until the defense eventually caved in. However, in 2021-22, Allen has reverted to his college ways.
Some Bills fans will tell you that it’s due to having only one legitimate weapon. To a certain extent, they’d be correct. Gabe Davis did not develop into the true No. 2 receiver the Bills were hoping for this season, gaining enough yardage but disappearing for quarters at a time.
While 835 yards, seven touchdowns, and 17.4 yards per reception are all stellar numbers for a second weapon, the fact that all this came on just 48 receptions meant that Allen did not have that safety blanket beyond Diggs. Dawson Knox gives some cushion, but Isaiah McKenzie’s wooden hands certainly do not.
It’s possible that Buffalo adds that playmaker and shores up their offensive line. However, with a two-year sample size of inconsistency, the odds are that this is just who Allen is: a more athletic and souped-up version of Brett Favre, who can be a hero more often than not but come up as the unlikely goat more than you’d expect from a superhero.
Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow, or ???
Yes, Patrick Mahomes and Joe Burrow are your two best bets for MVP and likely will be for the foreseeable future. After a slow start, Burrow injected himself into the MVP conversation down the stretch, but the award was all Mahomes’s. Jalen Hurts was the primary challenger.
|Player||2023 NFL MVP
|1. Patrick Mahomes||💰 +600 to win 2023 NFL MVP|
|2. Joe Burrow||💰 +650 to win 2023 NFL MVP|
|3. Josh Allen||💰 +800 to win 2023 NFL MVP|
|4. Justin Herbert||💰 +1000 to win 2023 NFL MVP|
|5. Jalen Hurts||💰 +1400 to win 2023 NFL MVP|
|T6. Lamar Jackson||💰 +1600 to win 2023 NFL MVP|
|T6. Aaron Rodgers||💰 +1600 to win 2023 NFL MVP|
|T8. Tua Tagovailoa||💰 +2000 to win 2023 NFL MVP|
|T8. Trevor Lawrence||💰 +2000 to win 2023 NFL MVP|
|T8. Dak Prescott||💰 +2000 to win 2023 NFL MVP|
Do not expect Hurts to replicate his masterful 2022 season. The Eagles have many free agents and question marks along their offensive line. Furthermore, their schedule was the easiest in football in 2022, and it will get harder with the AFC East to face in 2023, which fielded three of the top defenses by DVOA in the NFL (New England, Buffalo, and the Jets were third, fourth, and fifth, respectively).
If you want to put money on someone with longer odds but a bigger payout, think about these options from bet365:
- Justin Herbert, +900: uber-talented quarterback with a chronically underachieving team. If he has another year like this one, though, you have to question if it’s more than the surrounding cast. Not the greatest odds.
- Trevor Lawrence, +1600: This is particularly painful for Jets fans, who saw their Tank for Trevor dreams go up in a Braden Mann puff of smoke. Lawrence elevated his game in the second half of 2022 and orchestrated an epic second-half comeback in the AFC Wild Card Round. With Doug Pederson as his coach and an easy divisional slate, it’s easy to see Lawrence hitting the next level in Year 3.
- Justin Fields, +3000: The NFL MVP voters seem to really love their dual-threat QBs. Although Fields has only shown the running part so far, if Chicago can get him a couple of receivers, it’s not inconceivable to think that he can toss a bunch of touchdown passes to go with his otherworldly rushing talent. If he breaks Lamar Jackson’s single-season rushing record for QBs and throws as many TDs as Jalen Hurts did in 2022 (22), who says that Fields can’t follow in the footsteps of Lamar Jackson and Cam Newton, particularly in a weak division?
- C.J. Stroud, +12500: I think that whichever QB falls to the Panthers will look good out of the gate. I’m betting on Stroud being that guy with all the hype around Will Levis, especially since the Colts seem keen on him. If Stroud goes to Carolina, Frank Reich will know what to do with him. Obviously, the odds are long for a reason. Maybe wait until after the draft to place this bet, but stranger things have happened.
Then there are the longshots, such as Jets quarterback Zach Wilson, whose +20000 odds put him alongside Mike White, George Kittle, Deebo Samuel, and NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Garrett Wilson.
Maybe you want to go for Aaron Rodgers or Derek Carr, but wait until the Jets (hopefully) acquire one of them. Either way, with the 2023 NFL offseason already in the works, go to bet365 for all of your NFL betting needs while claiming a great $200 bonus while you’re at it.