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Remember, the draft odds often change based on whims and reports, but the sports bettors who can sift through the noise will be well ahead of the curve. Now that the Panthers slid into the top spot, after a blockbuster trade with the Chicago Bears, the odds are changing quickly.
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Changing Scenes
The NFL and the world were horrified to hear about Georgia standout defensive tackle Jalen Carter’s alleged involvement in a fatal crash that killed both a teammate and a college staffer. Carter headed into the day in a close race with Will Anderson to head to Chicago if they keep the No. 1 overall pick.
However, Carter was arrested and charged with two misdemeanors, reckless driving and racing, after reportedly being involved in a race with Georgia recruiting staffer Chandler LeCroy that led to a fatal crash. The collision resulted in the death of both LeCroy and Carter’s teammate, Devin Willock.
At BetMGM, Carter’s No. 1 pick odds have plummeted to +1600, which is fifth-best, while Anderson is at +700, tied for the third-best odds with quarterback Anthony Richardson.
However, the NFL has a long track record of drafting and signing talented players with checkered pasts. While Carter is less likely to go No. 1 overall due to his uncertain legal status, if he gets that situation sorted out, there’s a good chance he still gets drafted. The fact that he still has the fifth-best odds to be the first pick speaks to what the oddsmakers perceive the reaction around the NFL to be.
Early indications are that NFL teams are waiting to hear about the extent of Carter’s involvement in the crash. Carter reportedly lied to the police about where he was when the crash happened, which may complicate matters.
Quarterback Conundrum
C.J. Stroud is now the favorite to go No. 1 overall. His BetMGM odds are -300, whereas the previous favorite, Bryce Young, has slid to +300. And it’s mainly thanks to the Bears-Panthers trade.
Anthony Richardson remains the wild card in this draft. His +500 number is largely due to his NFL Scouting Combine performance, which wowed onlookers. NFL teams seem unable to pass up elite traits, even though Richardson showed sloppy footwork and periods of wild inaccuracy in college.
The reward for drafting a Josh Allen or Patrick Mahomes is so high that it seems to be worth the risk of a Zach Wilson to many teams.
One reason Richardson can possibly unseat Young is the concern about Young’s size, specifically his height, and breadth. Young is expected to measure in at just 6-foot-0 or possibly below and under 200 pounds. It’s not just his measurables that are concerning, though; a slight build like his has generally not boded well at the NFL level.
Even shorter quarterbacks like Kyler Murray and Russell Wilson had more solid builds, giving them the ability to withstand hits at the next level. Young is a risk from that perspective. Lamar Jackson, who is built more like Young, still has three or four inches of height advantage to at least mitigate those concerns.
Meanwhile, Will Levis (+900) and Stroud are also somewhat unknown. Some draftniks like Stroud as the No. 1 QB in the draft, and Levis has his admirers, as well. What teams will think remains to be seen and might change based on their showings at the Underwear Olympics.
BetMGM Sportsbook No. 1 Pick NFL Draft Odds
The blockbuster trade between the Chicago Bears and Carolina Panthers surely changed a few things in the NFL.
Initially, Bryce Young was the odds-on favorite to go No. 1 in the 2023 NFL draft, but that designation now belongs to Ohio State product C.J. Stroud, per BetMGM Sportsbook.
- C.J. Stroud (Ohio State) -300
- Bryce Young (Alabama) +300
- Anthony Richardson (Florida) +500
- Will Anderson Jr. (Alabama) +1200
- Will Levis (Kentucky) +1400
- Tyree Wilson (Texas A&M) +3300
- Jalen Carter (Georgia) +4000
Whatever your bet turns out to be, head over to BetMGM and get $1,000 in bonus bets for simply signing up and making an initial deposit.
