The New York Jets need to think about their long-term future instead of falling for short-term delusions
With the New York Jets all but erased from the 2023 playoff conversation, fans have already turned their attention to the 2024 offseason.
One of the biggest debates among fans is what the team should do with its first-round draft pick. Going into the year, New York did not anticipate having its first-rounder in 2024 due to the Aaron Rodgers trade, but because of his early injury, the Jets will keep the selection and instead send a second-round pick to Green Bay.
In my humble opinion, the Jets’ best option in the first round is clear: drafting a quarterback.
Here are a few reasons why.
1. The Jets must be realistic about their chances of winning a Super Bowl with Rodgers in 2024
The Jets’ 2025 starting quarterback is probably not on their roster at the moment, barring a surprising third-year return from Rodgers. Most teams who do not have the quarterback position secured beyond the current season would not think twice about drafting one in the top 10 if they had the opportunity, but the Jets are a unique case.
The only thing stopping the Jets from drafting a quarterback in the first round is the idea that they need to use the pick on an quarterback-supporting player to supplement a one-year shot at a Super Bowl with Rodgers in 2024.
That is certainly a feasible argument against drafting a quarterback. Using the first-round pick on a supporting offensive weapon is especially appealing because the Jets’ resources in free agency and the trade market will be fairly limited, as they have already dumped a lot of draft capital and cap space into this two-year window with Rodgers. This means the first-round pick might be the Jets’ best chance to improve the offense in 2024.
All things considered, it would be a completely understandable move if the Jets decided to get a wide receiver or an offensive lineman who could immediately help the team make a run in 2024.
However, I argue that taking the non-quarterback route would be a short-sighted move that is fueled by an unrealistic and overly optimistic outlook of the Jets’ Super Bowl odds in 2024. The Jets would be bypassing a potential long-term solution at quarterback just because they want to maximize a one-year window where their title odds aren’t even all that likely.
I hope Rodgers comes back looking like a man possessed and leads the Jets to a title in 2024. And it’s undoubtedly possible. But let’s be realistic for a second and think about how likely that actually is.
In Week 1 of 2024, Rodgers will be 40 years old (going on 41) having not played a full game in nearly two years (unless he stubbornly returns this year, in which case he might re-injure himself anyway). He could not last beyond one drive in 2023, and in 2022, he battled a thumb injury throughout much of the season. We also cannot forget that, a few months before his Achilles injury, Rodgers suffered a calf strain while the Jets were still doing very light work on the practice field.
This does not sound like a quarterback who should be viewed as likely to have a full, healthy season.
And even if Rodgers does play a full, healthy season, what does he have left in the tank? Jets fans (myself included) convinced themselves that Rodgers was on the verge of a vengeance-fueled bounce-back season, but again, let’s face the facts. In his last full season, Rodgers only won eight games and produced like a mediocre starting quarterback from a statistical standpoint. Out of 33 qualifiers in 2022, Rodgers was 16th in passer rating (91.1), 23rd in EPA per dropback (-0.04), and 27th in QBR (41.3).
Rodgers’ supporting cast was used as an excuse for the statistical decline, but in comparison to this Jets team, was that supporting cast really any worse? At this point, it looks far better.
In 2022, Rodgers was on a team that had a strong offensive line (the Packers’ O-line ranked third-best in pass-blocking efficiency that year) and an excellent head coach in Matt LaFleur who doubles as a great offensive play-caller. They also had a dynamic running back duo. Wide receiver and tight end were really the only problems on that offense.
You can give New York the advantage at wide receiver over the 2022 Packers just because of Garrett Wilson, but the rest of the Jets’ wide receiver depth chart is utterly awful. And, yes, the Jets have a whole offseason to upgrade both that position and the offensive line. Wide receiver could turn into a major strength if Davante Adams comes to town. But it’s hard to imagine the Jets can possibly do enough to turn their horrendously putrid offensive line into anything close to the league’s third-best pass-blocking unit in one offseason.
And as for the coaching staff, the Jets appear to be stuck with Robert Saleh and Nathaniel Hackett. Until proven otherwise, it’s delusional to argue Saleh is an equal head coach to LaFleur, and there’s no debate that LaFleur is lightyears ahead of Hackett as a play-caller and offensive designer.
To summarize: In comparison to his most recent full season, when he was mediocre at age 39, Rodgers will be two years older, coming off an Achilles injury (granted with plenty of recovery time), playing with a worse coaching staff, and most likely playing behind a worse offensive line.
Take off the green-shaded goggles for a second and imagine that the hated Dolphins or Patriots were going to try and make a one-year run with this situation. Would you, as a Jets fan, be afraid of that team as a legitimate Super Bowl threat?
No, you wouldn’t.
Again, the Jets can win it all with Rodgers in 2024 if things break perfectly. But it is an absolute longshot. The Jets have to be realistic and treat it that way.
Even the odds-on pre-season Super Bowl favorite in any given season has an implied 15-20% chance (at best) of winning the Lombardi, and the Jets will be nowhere close to that. Ignoring your future to invest in one season is foolish. That’s the case even if you are the best team in the NFL, so it’s especially true if you’re a team that appears as far off as this Jets squad.
This is why I believe it would be incredibly short-sighted to bypass drafting a player who could provide the franchise with long-term stability in favor of selecting a player who, while they could still be a great long-term piece, cannot alter the franchise’s fortunes in the same way that a quarterback can.
It’s safe to say the Jets are not winning the Super Bowl next year. Therefore, they need to focus on building an established program that gives them a shot at the Super Bowl year after year for many seasons to come. That all starts with finding a franchise quarterback.
This isn’t even to say the Jets should throw the 2024 season away. They can still use free agency and the trade market to bolster their 2024 roster and try to make a run with Rodgers. But they have to delicately balance the present and the future. Using their first-round pick on something other than a quarterback would be going a step too far all-in on 2024 while sacrificing too much of the future.
And this next point is a big reason why.
2. The Jets probably won’t land this high in future drafts
Some fans might argue the Jets can wait until 2025 or 2026 to draft a quarterback, at which point the Jets will hopefully have a better supporting cast in place. In the meantime, the Jets can focus fully on maximizing their window with Rodgers.
That sounds all well and good, but with the way things are panning out, it’s looking like the Jets might end up with a very high selection in this year’s draft. If that happens, the Jets cannot pass up on the opportunity to take a quarterback.
New York is currently situated in the No. 8 slot and could go as high as No. 7 by the end of today depending on how things play out. The Jets are only one game back of the No. 4 pick.
Barring a late-season turnaround, the Jets will probably be picking in the top 5-10 this year. If things go as planned and Rodgers returns to play a full season next year, the Jets are likely going to be a middle-of-the-pack team at the very least, landing them much lower in the 2025 draft.
The time to draft a quarterback is now. If the Jets wait, they might not get another chance to take a high-end quarterback prospect without having to make a lucrative trade-up. You do not want to end up as the next version of the Carolina Panthers.
Some might argue they would prefer for the Jets to wait on drafting a quarterback until they have a better offensive staff in place. That is an argument I understand. The crew of Nathaniel Hackett, Todd Downing, and Rob Calabrese has not done much to inspire confidence that they can develop a young quarterback.
However, I went back and looked at some of the recent young stars who have been developed around the league, and it’s actually not that uncommon for future star quarterbacks to undergo a change at offensive coordinator after their first season.
Trevor Lawrence, Jalen Hurts, Lamar Jackson, Jared Goff, and Tua Tagovailoa are among the recent future Pro Bowlers who had shaky starts to their careers and then took a big leap following major changes to the coaching staff. In essence, the Jets should not allow their current coaching predicament to push them into thinking they cannot draft a quarterback until changes are made. It’s been proven that you can fix that mid-career if need be.
The bottom line is that the Jets should not kick the can down the road at the game’s most important position. If their draft slot holds (or improves), they have a window to solve their long-term quarterback hole right now. Passing on that window could lead to major regrets down the line.
3. The Jets can finally develop a quarterback with patience
Another reason the Jets should draft a quarterback is that they finally have a golden opportunity to try the patient route. For years, the Jets have thrown young quarterbacks into the fire in Week 1 and watched their careers fizzle out. Mark Sanchez, Geno Smith, Sam Darnold, and Zach Wilson all started right away. That’s not to say this route cannot work – C.J. Stroud is doing fine – but after this franchise has tried and failed at it so many times, why not try something different?
The Jets are uniquely positioned to draft a quarterback and insert him directly into an ideal developmental timeline for both him and the team. With Rodgers set in stone for 2024, the Jets can draft a quarterback, have him learn for one year behind Rodgers, and prepare him to start in 2025. This allows the Jets to have one year of legitimate title contention and pass the torch directly to a talented young quarterback who has already had some seasoning, skipping the “bridge” stage that would occur if the Jets ignore drafting a quarterback in 2024.
I’ve seen the argument that the Jets could still take this route from 2025-26 with a different veteran quarterback after going all-in with Rodgers in 2024. The theory is that the Jets should invest fully on competing with Rodgers in 2024, and then when he retires in 2025, they can draft a quarterback and add a different veteran to hold the fort down for a year while the rookie prepares for 2026.
That just seems like an overly hypothetical scenario that involves too many unknowns. Who exactly is the veteran quarterback the Jets are acquiring in 2025? Does he even give them a chance to compete that year, or is he a mediocre starter who forces the team into a wasted “bridge” year that does not need to happen? Why would you go this route when you can skip the bridge stage by taking the rookie now, allowing you to go straight from Rodgers to the rookie?
Finally, I think the value of having Rodgers in place as the veteran mentor should not be overlooked. Rodgers showed a tremendous willingness throughout the 2023 offseason to mentor Zach Wilson, and he did the same in Green Bay for Jordan Love despite his initial surprise at the selection. He seems like the perfect quarterback to serve the mentorship role. Not every quarterback is willing to handle that responsibility. Even if they are willing, not every quarterback has the teaching skills for it. Rodgers seems to have both.
Out in Green Bay, it’s hard not to see shades of Rodgers when you watch Love, who is already tied for fourth in the NFL with 19 touchdown passes in his first season as a starter. In New York, things obviously did not go to plan for Zach Wilson, but at the very least, Wilson saw some minor improvements to his accuracy, and you could see changes in his mechanics that felt reminiscent of Rodgers.
Sure, you could go out in 2025 and get any veteran to mentor your rookie, but having a player learn behind Aaron Rodgers is a very rare opportunity that the Jets should not pass up on. They tried to use Rodgers to save Zach Wilson, but that was a futile attempt, as Wilson appears beyond saving. New York should take one more shot at reaping the benefits of Rodgers’ mentorship.
Quarterback is the way to go for the New York Jets
I still need to do some research on the specific quarterback prospects in the 2024 draft class, so I do not want to comment on specific players until I have more to say about them. I’m not just going to spew hot takes based on other people’s rankings or what the popular narratives are. So, give me some time on that front.
Perhaps my viewpoint will change if I come to dislike this year’s prospects, but generally speaking, I believe taking a quarterback in the first round of the 2024 draft would be the best move to maximize the Jets’ long-term chances of winning a Super Bowl. Yes, it would marginally decrease their chances of winning the Super Bowl in 2024, but I believe it would substantially increase their chances of winning at least one Super Bowl over the next decade.
I know the Jets want to salvage the Rodgers situation after this year’s nightmarish outcome, but they should not allow short-term desperation to cloud their long-term vision.
