The New York Jets should not take a quarterback in the first round of the 2024 draft
Last week, Michael Nania explained why the New York Jets should draft a quarterback in the first round of the 2024 draft. Just to be contrarian and represent the other side, here are the reasons not to make such a move.
To be clear, I am not necessarily providing my opinion on the matter. Frankly, I’m not sure where I stand on the matter. Still, I believe there is a strong debate here, and the other side deserves examination.
Staff
The main reason comes down to this: they don’t have the right staff in place to do it. Joe Douglas already drafted one quarterback, and it was a miserable failure. Should the Johnsons — and you, the fans — really trust him to get it right this time around?
Meanwhile, is there any reason to think Robert Saleh and Nathaniel Hackett can identify the right guy? Even if they do pick the right one, is there anyone within the organization who can legitimately develop a quarterback?
There is only one answer to these questions.
The Jets have drafted the wrong quarterback so many times. That’s the last thing they want to do now. The easiest answer to this particular issue is to fire the head coach and general manager and start anew, but that is not happening, per sources within the organization. That makes drafting a quarterback unwise.
Will they even have a first-round pick?
The Jets will reportedly pursue Davante Adams again in the offseason. Besides his albatross of a contract, the Raiders are unlikely to trade him for pennies. The Jets don’t have a second-round pick in 2023, so what can they give back to the Raiders? Trading their first-rounder seems likely.
This is why it’s wiser for the Jets to pursue Mike Evans or Tee Higgins, both free agents this offseason. Both players could face the franchise tag, although it seems less likely with Evans. Higgins might request a trade under the tag, which would inflate his price.
QB or OL first?
Should a team build the offensive line first and then draft a quarterback, or vice versa?
There are a few facets to this debate. A good quarterback can make his offensive line look better by reading the field quickly, displaying strong pocket awareness, and releasing the ball on time. Still, most young quarterbacks are not in that spot yet.
Furthermore, look at the difference between C.J. Stroud and Bryce Young. Most analysts would argue that Stroud is simply a better player, and that could be the case. Still, Stroud has been pressured the 13th-least among 33 qualified quarterbacks (min. 60 pressured dropbacks), while Young has been pressured the eighth-most.
I believe Patrick Mahomes would not be Mahomes had the Bears drafted him. True, Mitchell Trubisky would not have become Mahomes if the Chiefs had taken him, but he would likely be a starting quarterback in the NFL.
Dak Prescott and Russell Wilson are examples of mid-round quarterbacks who succeeded early due to good supporting casts. Prescott had a dominant line, while Wilson had an excellent running game. Even Jared Goff suddenly looks like a much better quarterback due to a better offensive line and strong play-calling.
There might be a chicken-or-egg argument here since quarterbacks’ sack rates and sack quality tend to be stable. Still, when a quarterback is new to the league, having a line that can both protect him and create lanes in the running game makes a huge difference.
The Jets do not have anything near that. Their offensive line is in shambles. They need three new offensive linemen unless they triple down on Laken Tomlinson and Mekhi Becton. If they don’t fix the line and the receiving corps, they will waste their time with Aaron Rodgers and put their new quarterback in a bad situation.
Go for it
Last offseason, Robby Sabo argued that the window for any team in the NFL to win is short. This was why he preferred to pursue Rodgers over Carr despite sacrificing a longer window of success. Although Rodgers is coming off an Achilles tear, that premise may still be true.
Perhaps the offense would have played almost as miserably with Rodgers, especially with the offensive line and receiving issues. Still, looking at the Jets’ first six games when the line was reasonably intact, the team lost two winnable games. (Yes, even the Chiefs game where Zach Wilson played fairly well, would have been winnable with Rodgers.) Their loss to the Raiders was similar. With Rodgers, the team could easily be 7-4 instead of 4-7, and the discussion would be different.
Should the Jets invest so much in Rodgers, including keeping their staff intact, and then plan for life without him? There is something incongruent about that plan. There is a strong argument that they should start over, but they owe Rodgers guaranteed money whether or not they do so.
Rather than the quarterback, the Jets could draft the best tackle or receiver available and fill other holes via free agency. An offensive line does not need to be elite at all five positions; it just needs to be adequate. Frankly, the Jets’ line was adequate until Alijah Vera-Tucker went down.
As Nania argued, the Jets could be in better shape now had they re-signed George Fant, who is playing competently. That’s more than they’ve gotten from their tackles for most of the season. Many other mid-tier options in free agency could have raised the floor of the line significantly.
The same holds next year when tackles like Jonah Williams (5.6% pressure rate), Austin Jackson (3%), Fant (5.1%), Jermaine Eluemunor (5.4%), Trent Brown (4.1%), and Kendall Lamm (4.9%) will most likely be available at tackle. At guard, Jon Runyan Jr. (3.8%), Kevin Dotson (2.6%), Ezra Cleveland (3.6%), and Aaron Stinnie (4.5%) could be cost-effective options. The Jets could potentially sign 1.5 or two offensive linemen with the $13 million they would save from cutting Tomlinson with a post-June 1 designation.
Going for it would not be insane for the Jets next year. As bad as things look now, they can get it done as long as they identify mid-tier options for non-critical positions. The most important positions where they need very good (rather than average) players are one tackle and a second receiver.
Later-round option
This quarterback class is considered a deep class. While the Jets don’t have a second-round pick, they have the option of trading down in the first round, taking the lineman or receiver they want, and also taking a quarterback with the pick(s) they recoup in the deal.
If there is a later quarterback the Jets like, they can potentially have their cake and eat it too by maximizing Rodgers’ remaining window and allowing him to mentor the young passer. They can also build up the rest of the team, giving that young passer a better chance to succeed once Rodgers retires.
Again, this assumes the Jets actually have a staff who can develop a quarterback, of which there is currently no evidence. But there’s much less lost if a quarterback taken after the first round whiffs compared to a first-rounder.
What do you think, Jets fans? Is there a legitimate argument here, regardless of which side you fall on? If you want to draft a quarterback, do you trust Douglas to pick the right one?
This article makes a credible case for all three scenarios. I shudder to say that the Jets can’t go wrong whether they draft a tackle, wide receiver or QB, but the Jets have an impressive history of doing so.
My own choice would be an offensive lineman in the first round unless a truly elite player fell to the Jets at their first round pick. A solid receiver can be had via free agency or a trade. I believe most receivers would welcome the chance to play with Aaron Rodgers.
I say go O line in the 1st and draft a QB later. Although, while people question JDs ability to select a QB, I think there are still questions about his ability to select O linemen. So far he has drafted ONE who turned out to be good, and that guy has been hurt 2 of his 3 years in the league. His free agent signings have also been somewhere between meh and bad.
Tippmann is turning into a solid player, however your point is still valid. I do think Joe can pick players including OL, the injuries didn’t help. If this line was, Becton, Laken, McGovern, Tippman, AVT, things would be very different. I’m not saying great but I do believe more functional. I do think he made some decent signings in the depth spots, Herbig was serviceable, Fant was solid, Morgan Moses was a key pick up, I think Schweitzer would have been a huge help, so there are examples of Joe making good moves on the OL, but I do agree, overall he’s got to do better.
That OL combination was indeed functional when it was on the field, but overall, JD’s talent identification along the OL has been poor. Tomlinson is the biggest example, but Becton was a risky pick, Billy Turner was an asinine signing, both Mitchell and Warren were bad prospects (not just developmental ones – watch Blewett’s college film reviews), their tackle depth has generally been awful over the past few years, and being forced to overpay and start Duane Brown for two consecutive seasons is his fault.
With the way Becton has played this year, you can’t call it a good pick at this point. He’s had one good year, two lost ones, and one significantly below average.
I do trust Joe to make the pick. It’s not like he drafted Zach Wilson when everybody said it was a mistake. Zach was considered QB2 in that draft by a wide margin. I know it looks bad now but I didn’t see a lot of support for keeping Sam at the time, so really Joe made the only choice possible.
You are TOTALLY correct about not having the right staff to develop a QB. Yes, Rogers is here and figures to be an outstanding mentor, but this team NEEDS a quality QB coach. They never replaced the talents of Knapp at that position. I don’t want someone drafted and left to Rob Calabrese. Period. It’s early, I have no idea about connections but they need a better guy. (Frank Reich? McCown?)…
I don’t know if Adams is a given, and the OL, NEEDS to be upgraded. I’m like you, at this point I’m not sure who they take, I do know going into a draft wanting ONE position is a recipe for disaster. If Rogers figures to be here for a couple of years then they can draft a QB next year…IF there isn’t someone they like.
Still, it appears that Saleh was against the pick and it was Rex Hogan and Mike LaFleur who sold the “better than Trevor Lawrence” narrative. As gaga as everyone was over Wilson, the red flags in his profile were evident at the time; my biggest concern was his footwork, which has shown up big-time at the NFL level. Also, his sudden breakout after two years as a nondescript QB should have been a flag for teams. I understand other teams would have taken him, too, but I still think the Jets sold themselves on him despite some hesitation.
I’m questioning Reich and McCown after what has happened with Bryce Young, but I would lean McCown if he is open to the demotion from OC.
in 2024 jets need better OL and WR/TE groups, likely 4 players. this is a big need to recoup in either draft or FA, jets will need to attack both groups through draft and FA. #2 QB is not a need for 2024
Agreed.
It’s a 99% given that the whole clan will be back as long as Rodgers says he’s playing in 2024. If that’s the case then JD needs to competently rebuild the line and he has a lot of work to do. IMHO if Joe Alt is there then run up to the stage. A left tackle to protect our old QB is vital. I would also put AVT back to his college LG position and work on the right side with free agency. Yes a QB can hide blemishes of an OL but a good QB can be a great with just a half second more to throw. Our best Jet teams all had good offensive lines – 68, 81/82, 85/86, 98, 09, 10. No coincidence.
I actually agree about AVT at LG. I did not like moving him to RG when Tomlinson came in, although AVT was just as good on the right side. The only way they do that, though, is if they do the right thing and get rid of Tomlinson, which they probably won’t.