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The case against NY Jets taking a QB in first round of 2024 draft

Bo Nix, Oregon, NFL Draft, NY Jets, QB Rankings
Bo Nix, Oregon Football, NFL Draft, New York Jets, Getty Images

The New York Jets should not take a quarterback in the first round of the 2024 draft

Last week, Michael Nania explained why the New York Jets should draft a quarterback in the first round of the 2024 draft. Just to be contrarian and represent the other side, here are the reasons not to make such a move.

To be clear, I am not necessarily providing my opinion on the matter. Frankly, I’m not sure where I stand on the matter. Still, I believe there is a strong debate here, and the other side deserves examination.

Staff

The main reason comes down to this: they don’t have the right staff in place to do it. Joe Douglas already drafted one quarterback, and it was a miserable failure. Should the Johnsons — and you, the fans — really trust him to get it right this time around?

Meanwhile, is there any reason to think Robert Saleh and Nathaniel Hackett can identify the right guy? Even if they do pick the right one, is there anyone within the organization who can legitimately develop a quarterback?

There is only one answer to these questions.

The Jets have drafted the wrong quarterback so many times. That’s the last thing they want to do now. The easiest answer to this particular issue is to fire the head coach and general manager and start anew, but that is not happening, per sources within the organization. That makes drafting a quarterback unwise.

Will they even have a first-round pick?

The Jets will reportedly pursue Davante Adams again in the offseason. Besides his albatross of a contract, the Raiders are unlikely to trade him for pennies. The Jets don’t have a second-round pick in 2023, so what can they give back to the Raiders? Trading their first-rounder seems likely.

This is why it’s wiser for the Jets to pursue Mike Evans or Tee Higgins, both free agents this offseason. Both players could face the franchise tag, although it seems less likely with Evans. Higgins might request a trade under the tag, which would inflate his price.

QB or OL first?

Should a team build the offensive line first and then draft a quarterback, or vice versa?

There are a few facets to this debate. A good quarterback can make his offensive line look better by reading the field quickly, displaying strong pocket awareness, and releasing the ball on time. Still, most young quarterbacks are not in that spot yet.

Furthermore, look at the difference between C.J. Stroud and Bryce Young. Most analysts would argue that Stroud is simply a better player, and that could be the case. Still, Stroud has been pressured the 13th-least among 33 qualified quarterbacks (min. 60 pressured dropbacks), while Young has been pressured the eighth-most.

I believe Patrick Mahomes would not be Mahomes had the Bears drafted him. True, Mitchell Trubisky would not have become Mahomes if the Chiefs had taken him, but he would likely be a starting quarterback in the NFL.

Dak Prescott and Russell Wilson are examples of mid-round quarterbacks who succeeded early due to good supporting casts. Prescott had a dominant line, while Wilson had an excellent running game. Even Jared Goff suddenly looks like a much better quarterback due to a better offensive line and strong play-calling.

There might be a chicken-or-egg argument here since quarterbacks’ sack rates and sack quality tend to be stable. Still, when a quarterback is new to the league, having a line that can both protect him and create lanes in the running game makes a huge difference.

The Jets do not have anything near that. Their offensive line is in shambles. They need three new offensive linemen unless they triple down on Laken Tomlinson and Mekhi Becton. If they don’t fix the line and the receiving corps, they will waste their time with Aaron Rodgers and put their new quarterback in a bad situation.

Go for it

Last offseason, Robby Sabo argued that the window for any team in the NFL to win is short. This was why he preferred to pursue Rodgers over Carr despite sacrificing a longer window of success. Although Rodgers is coming off an Achilles tear, that premise may still be true.

Perhaps the offense would have played almost as miserably with Rodgers, especially with the offensive line and receiving issues. Still, looking at the Jets’ first six games when the line was reasonably intact, the team lost two winnable games. (Yes, even the Chiefs game where Zach Wilson played fairly well, would have been winnable with Rodgers.) Their loss to the Raiders was similar. With Rodgers, the team could easily be 7-4 instead of 4-7, and the discussion would be different.

Should the Jets invest so much in Rodgers, including keeping their staff intact, and then plan for life without him? There is something incongruent about that plan. There is a strong argument that they should start over, but they owe Rodgers guaranteed money whether or not they do so.

Rather than the quarterback, the Jets could draft the best tackle or receiver available and fill other holes via free agency. An offensive line does not need to be elite at all five positions; it just needs to be adequate. Frankly, the Jets’ line was adequate until Alijah Vera-Tucker went down.

As Nania argued, the Jets could be in better shape now had they re-signed George Fant, who is playing competently. That’s more than they’ve gotten from their tackles for most of the season. Many other mid-tier options in free agency could have raised the floor of the line significantly.

The same holds next year when tackles like Jonah Williams (5.6% pressure rate), Austin Jackson (3%), Fant (5.1%), Jermaine Eluemunor (5.4%), Trent Brown (4.1%), and Kendall Lamm (4.9%) will most likely be available at tackle. At guard, Jon Runyan Jr. (3.8%), Kevin Dotson (2.6%), Ezra Cleveland (3.6%), and Aaron Stinnie (4.5%) could be cost-effective options. The Jets could potentially sign 1.5 or two offensive linemen with the $13 million they would save from cutting Tomlinson with a post-June 1 designation.

Going for it would not be insane for the Jets next year. As bad as things look now, they can get it done as long as they identify mid-tier options for non-critical positions. The most important positions where they need very good (rather than average) players are one tackle and a second receiver.

Later-round option

This quarterback class is considered a deep class. While the Jets don’t have a second-round pick, they have the option of trading down in the first round, taking the lineman or receiver they want, and also taking a quarterback with the pick(s) they recoup in the deal.

If there is a later quarterback the Jets like, they can potentially have their cake and eat it too by maximizing Rodgers’ remaining window and allowing him to mentor the young passer. They can also build up the rest of the team, giving that young passer a better chance to succeed once Rodgers retires.

Again, this assumes the Jets actually have a staff who can develop a quarterback, of which there is currently no evidence. But there’s much less lost if a quarterback taken after the first round whiffs compared to a first-rounder.

What do you think, Jets fans? Is there a legitimate argument here, regardless of which side you fall on? If you want to draft a quarterback, do you trust Douglas to pick the right one?

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