The New York Jets have several decisions to make about their edge rusher group
With the New York Jets’ surprising victory over the Houston Texans, perhaps offseason discussions have been pushed off a bit. The Jets’ playoff hopes are revived from the dead. An upset victory over the Miami Dolphins could potentially keep the glimmer alive.
Still, realistically, the Jets face an uphill battle. The Dolphins are 9-4 and will be hungrier than ever following a terrible loss to Tennessee. Their speed on offense, especially at running back, is a bad matchup for the Jets. If they do pull off that miracle, Aaron Rodgers can (and likely will) return against Washington. Even so, his effectiveness following a swift return from an Achilles rupture is questionable. The Jets’ decimated offensive line and weak receiver unit make a run even less likely.
Therefore, it’s not too early to think about the team’s looming offseason decisions. Joe Douglas, Robert Saleh, and Nathaniel Hackett don’t seem to be going anywhere. The team will double down on Rodgers in 2024. Therefore, if they’re going to make next year the all-in season that 2023 was supposed to be, Douglas will have many tricky choices to make.
No position epitomizes the Jets’ dilemma more than edge rusher. The team likes to maintain a deep rotation to keep players fresh and offenses gassed. However, with the team’s manifold needs on offense, there may not be much salary cap space left to address the defense.
What is the Jets’ best path forward along the edge? More to the point, what are they most likely to do at the position?
Bryce Huff conundrum
Jets fans were begging the team to extend Bryce Huff during the bye week. Through eight games, the former undrafted free agent posted 44 pressures on 150 pass rush snaps, a 29.3% pressure rate. That led the league by 8% over the next-highest pass rusher (Rashan Gary), showcasing Huff’s dominance.
Still, it’s noteworthy that even then, 100 of Huff’s 150 pass rush snaps came in true pass set situations. That 66.7% rate of true pass sets was the second-highest among 69 qualified edge defenders (min. 150 pass rush snaps); the league average was 49.9%. A true pass set is a pass play in which the ball is released between 2-4 seconds with no play-action or screen. It’s a straight matchup between offensive lineman and pass rusher without mitigating factors.
Through Week 9, the average pressure rate for edge defenders in true pass sets was 16.6%, compared to 7.9% in non-true pass sets. That’s a huge difference. While Huff’s pressure rate in non-true pass sets was still a jaw-dropping 22% — nearly three times the league average — the relatively few reps he had in that situation put him at an advantage over other pass rushers.
Huff has quieted down significantly over the last few weeks, though. Over the Jets’ past five games, Huff has posted just an 8.6% pressure rate, tied for 57th out of 69 qualified edge rushers (min. 75 pass rush snaps). This may partially correlate with a reduction in his true pass set rate from 66.7% down to 51%, tied for 30th. However, what has caused this decline in pressure rate is Huff’s production in true pass sets, which fell from 33% through the first nine games (top-ranked) to just 13.2% through the last five, ranking 59th.
Offseason ramifications
Huff is an unrestricted free agent this offseason. In today’s NFL, dominant pass rushers often receive $20 million-plus per season. Huff is not quite the sack maestro that some of the other elite rushers are. Still, his 6.5 sacks, 20.9% pressure rate, and general disruptiveness to an offense will likely earn him more than that.
After all, Montez Sweat just earned a four-year, $98 million contract ($24.5 million AAV) with $50 million guaranteed. He has a 13.2% pressure rate, albeit with 10 sacks. While Sweat has 385 pass rush snaps to Huff’s 254, that difference won’t matter significantly on the market.
Can the Jets really commit close to $25 million to Huff? They already gave Quinnen Williams $24 million per season, and Williams has played 70% of their defensive snaps this season. Should they give it to a player at 41%? They already have two recent first-round picks at the position in Jermaine Johnson and Will McDonald. They also have John Franklin-Myers, who has a $16.4 million cap charge in 2024.
Of course, the Jets could extend Huff and then ramp up his snap count over 60% to justify the contract. Do they want to do that for a player who might be showing signs of slowing down, though? There are still four games left, so that will play a role in determining whether Huff’s lagging numbers are due to a small sample size, a high double-team rate, or something else. Still, there is the distinct possibility that having more tread on his tires is affecting him.
Most likely scenario
I think the Jets will try to tag and trade Huff. Right now, they rank 20th in the NFL with $4 million in effective cap space for 2024. That will change when the season ends, but the Jets are tight on the cap heading into the offseason. They still do not seem to trust Huff against the run, either, as he has a 2.5 pass-to-run snap ratio, which is far higher than Johnson (1.47), Franklin-Myers (1.3), and McDonald (1.4).
Furthermore, the Jets drafted McDonald to replace Huff. He has a similar pass rush profile and he’s on a rookie contract. It’s even harder to justify drafting McDonald if he’s not receiving a significant snap share in his second year, wasting his cheap contract.
Therefore, a tag-and-trade is most likely. Huff’s projected franchise tag is $23.3 million. That is reasonable compared to what his extension number would be. Still, the Jets would not keep him at that cap number (because extensions usually contain deferred cap hits, easing the immediate cap crunch).
I think the bidding for Huff would start at a second-round pick plus a mid-rounder. It wouldn’t shock me if they could get a first-rounder or even more for him. That’s how valuable top edge rushers are. Despite Huff’s spotty run defense, edge defenders are paid for pass rush. Trey Hendrickson (51.5), Danielle Hunter (49.7), Chase Young (56.9), and Za’Darius Smith (59.9) are other edge defenders with less-than-ideal PFF run defense grades who have significant financial investments due to their pass-rushing.
This return would be valuable for the Jets, who are missing their 2024 second-rounder from the Rodgers deal. With their offensive holes, they need as much financial and draft capital as possible. This trade would provide both and allow them to trade for a top receiver (cough, cough, Davante Adams).
Second option
If the Jets intend to keep Huff, they could make room by trading Franklin-Myers. The latter has several void years at the end of his deal, but trading him after June 1 would yield $13.9 million in savings with $2.5 million in 2024 dead cap (and $6.6 million in 2025).
There are several problems, though. The Jets must be under the cap before June 1. There is no mechanism for a post-June 1 trade designation. The Jets would need to wait until June 2 to trade Franklin-Myers while carrying Huff’s contract. Even if they tagged Huff and extended him after June 1, that $23.3 million cap charge would be prohibitive along with Franklin-Myers’ $16.4 million.
Furthermore, the team wouldn’t receive 2024 draft capital in this case, making the move less worthwhile. It can give them more 2025 draft capital, which is useful given how cap-strapped they’ll be. Still, they’d be looking for 2024 assets, which they can receive from trading Huff.
More importantly, Franklin-Myers is a key player for the Jets, possibly even more than Huff. He is a dual-threat pass rusher and run defender, plays inside and outside, and usually sets a strong edge. While Huff’s pressure can be more disruptive, the Jets’ run defense is spotty. That makes the loss of Franklin-Myers harder to bear. Ultimately, Franklin-Myers’ value at his cap number may be higher than Huff’s.
On the other hand, the Jets can defer cap space by extending Huff, while Franklin-Myers’ cap charge is high. That could tilt the scales in Huff’s favor. Although Huff’s contract would ultimately exceed Franklin-Myers’, the immediate cap relief is enticing. Huff is also a strong enough pass rusher to make his case compelling in the full picture.
“Conundrum” is the correct word to describe this dilemma.
Johnson
It appears the Jets have enough evidence that Johnson can be one of their starting edge rushers. His 12.1% pressure rate this season is above average despite his slow start. Over his last nine games, Johnson has a 15.4% rate, which ranks 13th out of 70 qualified edge rushers. He has at least five pressures in four of those games, showcasing his ability to be a game-changer. He’s also been a monster in true pass sets with a 22.8% pressure rate, not far from Huff’s 26.9%. He’s gotten a sack on 2.92% of his pass rush snaps, ranking 18th.
Pro Football Focus is not all that high on Johnson’s run defense. He ranks 31st out of 65 qualified edge defenders (min. 140 run defense snaps) with a 65.2 PFF run defense grade. His stop rate is down from 9.8% in 2022 (93rd percentile) to 5.8% in 2023 (38th percentile).
Johnson gives the Jets one surefire starter along the edge, perhaps making it a bit easier to let Huff go despite their differing skill sets.
McDonald
Just like Johnson in 2022, the Jets haven’t seen much from McDonald as a rookie. Still, they’ve also given him very few opportunities — just 17% of snaps, which is half Johnson’s 2022 rate. Therefore, they won’t know if McDonald is ready to take on a larger workload, which affects the whole room.
Still, the Jets ramped up Johnson’s workload to starter level without clear evidence that he would improve. Johnson has justified that confidence. Perhaps McDonald can do the same.
Johnson bulked up in the offseason, and it appears to be all muscle. McDonald is thinner than Johnson (241 vs. 254), but he could also add muscle in the offseason. This could give the Jets confidence that he can handle a bigger workload and hold his own against the run.
If the Jets let McDonald replace Huff’s role, their path with Huff becomes clear. They would likely try a tag-and-trade to maximize their return over a compensatory pick.
Still, would this be wise? As toolsy and bendy as McDonald is, he doesn’t have Huff’s production. Huff posted 20.8% pressure rate on a 16% snap count in 2022. McDonald is at a 9.9% rate on 17% of the snaps. Granted, Huff had many more pass rush snaps (173 vs. 71) and a much higher true pass set rate (67.6% vs. 50%).
McDonald has six pressures in 30 reps over his past five games (20% pressure rate), starting to show similar signs to what Huff did last season. Huff’s production from Weeks 10-14 in 2022 was similar: 10 pressures on 46 reps, a 21.7% rate. McDonald’s 62.4 PFF run defense grade is also far better than Huff’s 48.0, albeit in half the snaps (53 vs. 100) and on a slightly lower stop rate (5.7% vs. 6.1%).
The rest of the room
Micheal Clemons’ production has not matched the hype. He has been less impactful than in 2022 when Michael Nania rated him the Jets’ best run defender. His PFF run defense grade has fallen from 86.4 to 63.2, and his stop rate is down from 8.1% to 4.8%.
The only difference in Clemons’ usage this season is that he’s alternated sides. In 2022, he played 95.5% of his snaps on the right side of the defensive line. In 2023, he’s played 36.8% on the left and 63.2% on the right. However, his position is similar: he played five-technique 86.8% of the time in 2022 and 94.4% this season. Despite his weight gain, the Jets play him at edge more than in 2022.
The Jets intended to use Clemons inside more, but he did not justify it in the preseason. His lack of impact likely caused a pivot to his current usage. With Quinton Jefferson‘s solid performance, Solomon Thomas‘ pass rush production, and Franklin-Myers kicking inside on passing downs, there is little need to use him inside.
Instead, Clemons’ weight gain reduced his flexibility, making it harder to set the edge. He has a 20.8% run game missed tackle rate compared to 0% in 2022. Accordingly, he makes fewer tackles against the run (17.1% in 2022 vs. 11% in 2023).
Clemons’ 2024 roster spot is not guaranteed. He has a 6.9% pressure rate, down from 9% in 2022. He’s a nonfactor as an edge rusher. His declining run game production diminishes his value. As a former fourth-round pick, Clemons is easily replaceable.
Meanwhile, Carl Lawson is a free agent and won’t return. Perhaps the Jets will choose to go with a five-man edge rotation, obviating the need to replace him.
Decisions, decisions
For all the Jets’ needs on the offensive side of the ball and in the safety room, their decisions at edge defender can be equally worth watching. Letting Huff go would undoubtedly infuriate fans, though a tag and trade with a hefty return could ease the sting.
I strongly suspect that this is what the Jets will do. If they trade Huff, Johnson and Franklin-Myers will be their starting edge defenders, with McDonald sliding into Huff’s role. They’ll likely keep Clemons simply because he’s cheap, although I think it’s wiser to bring in someone else. Then they’ll add a fifth edge rusher, whether in the draft or via free agency, to fill out their room and maintain the five-man rotation they prefer.
How would you feel about this, Jets fans? Would trading Huff for a big haul work for you, or are you all in on extending him? What do you think the Jets will ultimately do?
