The No. 1 pick would be a fan’s consolation prize for a miserable New York Jets season
For New York Jets fans, it’s time to throw out those playoff brackets and load up the mock draft machines. The Jets will be missing playoffs for the 13th straight season, the longest active playoff drought in North America.
With playoff hopes evaporated and dreams of Aaron Rodgers’ return officially over, Jets fans can move their eyes to the offseason without guilt. While the coaches and players will still fight for every win, it’s arguably in the Jets’ best interest to lose out. The debate about culture and development vs losing for improved draft capital is beyond my purview, but from a fan’s perspective, the scenarios all involve the draft.
Right now, the Jets hold the No. 7 pick in the first round. A lot can change between now and the end of the season, though. Here are the possibilities for the Jets to jump as many other teams as possible.
Current standings
Here is the current draft order, strength of schedule, and remaining schedule for teams with the top 12 draft slots.
- Panthers (2-12, .521 strength of schedule): GB, JAX, TB
- Patriots (3-11, .521): DEN, BUF, NYJ
- Cardinals (3-11, .559): CHI, PHI, SEA
- Commanders (4-10, .513): NYJ, SF, DAL
- Bears (5-9, .466): ARI, ATL, GB
- Giants (5-9, .508): PHI, LAR, PHI
- Jets (5-9, .508): WAS, CLE, NE
- Chargers (5-9, .521): BUF, DEN, KC
- Titans (5-9, .534): SEA, HOU, JAX
- Falcons (6-8, .424): IND, CHI, NO
- Packers (6-8, .471): CAR, GB, CHI
- Raiders (6-8, .487): KC, IND, DEN
Scenario 1: Jets go 3-0
After losing six of their last seven to shatter any playoff hopes, it seems only logical the Jets would win their final three and pick in the mid-teens. If the Jets did this they would finish 8-9 and would likely pick somewhere in the teens. Last year, there were three 8-win teams and they picked from 14 to 16.
Still, there is a large range of picks the Jets could land with an 8-9 record, as there are 20 teams who currently have between 5 and 8 wins. If things go in the Jets’ favor, they could land closer to the 10th pick. If the teams behind the Jets lose out, they could potentially finish with a pick as low as 18th overall.
Thankfully (?) for the Jets, this scenario is unlikely, as Rodgers stated he will not return. At this point, even peak Rodgers would be unlikely to save this team or survive behind this offensive line.
Scenario 2: Jets go 2-1
If the Jets win two of their final three games to finish 7-10, they will match last season’s record, which landed them at the 13th pick. However, that was the lowest slot out of the six teams that won seven games. The highest of those six teams picked eighth (Atlanta). Look for the Jets to land in the 8-to-13 range once again if they finish 7-10.
Right now, there are 20 teams with .500-or-better records, meaning a losing record is good enough for the 12th overall pick at worst. So, even if the Jets win two more games to finish 7-10, look for them to finish somewhere around the 10th pick, give or take a couple of slots.
It’s worth noting that the Jets’ strength of schedule currently sits at .508, which is much closer to middle-of-the-pack than their 2022 mark of .538, so they should fare better in draft-order tiebreakers this year. For instance, last season, a .508 strength of schedule would have put the Jets at the 11th pick instead of the 13th. They would have jumped the Browns (.524) and Titans (.509) among the six teams tied at 7-10.
Scenario 3: Jets go 1-2
Despite how poorly the Jets are playing, losing out is a tough task when playing two of the four teams who have a worse record than they do (Washington and New England).
If the Jets do win one more game and finish 6-11, they can pick as high as No. 2 overall in the following scenario:
- Patriots and Cardinals win out
- Bears, Commanders, and Giants win 2 of 3
- Chargers and Titans win 1 of 3
This is unlikely to happen. A reasonable outcome in this situation is to finish between No. 5 and No. 10 overall.
To guarantee a top-10 pick in this scenario, the Falcons and Packers would need to win at least one game. Even though the Raiders would technically also be tied, their .487 SOS compared to the Jets’ .508 makes it unlikely they would leapfrog the Jets even if the two ended up with the same record.
Scenario 4: Jets go 0-3
With three games left to go, the Jets can still finish with the first overall pick. The Jets shouldn’t have an issue losing their next three games, putting them at 5-12, but even if that happens, it will take a miracle for the Jets to land at number one.
All of the following scenarios must happen for the Jets to finish with the first pick:
- Jets lose out
- Panthers win out
- Patriots win two games and their SOS remains lower than Jets’ SOS (Patriots currently at .521, Jets at .508) or Patriots win out
- Cardinals win at least two games
- Bears win at least one game
- Giants win at least one game or the Giants lose out but their SOS (currently tied with Jets at .508) finishes higher than Jets’ SOS
- Commanders win at least one more game in addition to defeating Jets or the Commanders finish 1-2 but their SOS (currently slightly above Jets’ at .513) remains higher than Jets’ SOS
With this, the Jets would have the No. 1 pick as long as the current SOS tiebreakers hold.
Most importantly, the Panthers need to win out, which is very unlikely considering how poorly they’ve played. Two of their upcoming opponents are the Jaguars and Buccaneers, both of whom are fighting for postseason spots.
The main team to keep an eye on is the Patriots, whose SOS is slightly higher than the Jets at .521. To avoid a tiebreaker entirely, the Jets would need the Patriots to win out and finish 6-11. Otherwise, with the Patriots winning two of three to finish with a 5-12 record, the two teams will tie and the Jets would need to hope their current SOS edge is maintained. The Jets have a sizable edge, but it’s not locked up just yet.
The Cardinals would also need to win out and finish 6-11 to avoid a tiebreaker with the Jets, whereas a 5-12 finish would force an SOS tiebreaker. However, the Cardinals’ SOS sits at a league-leading .559, which is much too far ahead for it to possibly drop beneath the Jets’ .508 mark with only three weeks to go. The Jets will win a tiebreaker against the Cardinals, which is why they only need two wins from Arizona to ensure they will pass them.
Conversely, Chicago’s SOS sits at .466, the league’s fourth-lowest mark. They will win a tiebreaker against the Jets in all likelihood, so the Jets need the 5-12 Bears to win at least one game to stay out of the tiebreaker mix.
Mock Draft December continues another year
With three weeks left to play, the Jets are once again looking at mock drafts instead of the playoffs. Since the Jets made the AFC Championship in the 2010 season, they have finished with less than eight wins all but once in their 13-year playoff drought. What’s worse, since 2016, the Jets have only had over five wins twice in seven years and are on pace to make it six out of eight.
The Jets and their fans could rely on the pipe dream of the No. 1 overall pick finally breaking their playoff curse. But after six top-six selections in the last nine drafts, the Jets well know that it takes a lot more than high picks to be a winning franchise.
Following the Jets’ most recent late-season collapse, general manager Joe Douglas and head coach Robert Saleh are both in danger of being fired at the end of the season. Whether it’s Douglas or someone new, regardless of the draft slot, making the right choice with their 2024 first-round pick can have a strong impact on the Jets’ success in 2024.
