The New York Jets’ head coach cannot hide from the facts
After the New York Jets’ NFL-leading sixth loss of the season by 17+ points, the heat under Robert Saleh‘s seat has reached new record-high temperatures.
Team owner Woody Johnson has already proclaimed that Saleh will return in 2024, but with each passing week, Johnson’s premature declaration becomes increasingly questionable. No matter how much Johnson and Saleh try to convince the fanbase that everything will be fine once Aaron Rodgers returns, it’s difficult for Saleh to hide from the cold-hard data that proves he is coaching at a subpar level.
During Thursday’s loss to the Cleveland Browns, Saleh was heavily criticized for two baffling decisions to punt in the fourth quarter. First, Saleh punted from the Browns’ 44-yard line on fourth-and-10 with 2:13 remaining in the third quarter while trailing by 17 points. Saleh doubled down on the following series, punting on fourth-and-11 from the Browns’ 44-yard line while still trailing by 17 points with 13:34 in the fourth quarter.
Fans skewered Saleh for these decisions. While it’s easy to claim that the fans were just being emotional in the moment, perhaps lashing out because they were eager to see something exciting happen, the data proves that Saleh’s decisions in those situations were indeed extremely cowardly when compared to the rest of the league.
The automated Twitter account “Surrender Index 90” calculates the “Surrender Index” of questionable punting decisions by NFL coaches. It aims to estimate how “cowardly” each punt decision is when accounting for the league-average likelihood that a team would go for it in that particular game situation (considering score, field position, time, and down/distance).
Saleh’s first punt ranked at the 92nd percentile of cowardliness in the 2023 season.
NYJ decided to punt to CLE from the CLE 44 on 4th & 10 with 2:13 remaining in the 3rd while losing 17 to 34.
With a Surrender Index of 6.74, this punt ranks at the 92nd percentile of cowardly punts of the 2023 season, and the 88th percentile of all punts since 1999.
— Surrender Index 90 (@surrender_idx90) December 29, 2023
On the second punt, the Jets took a delay of game penalty on fourth-and-6 from the Browns’ 39-yard line before deciding to punt on fourth-and-11 from the 44. The Surrender Index assumed the Jets likely took the delay of game penalty intentionally, but fans watching the game could see it was really just another horrendous mistake by a poorly coached team.
The Surrender Index says that the punt would rank at the 99.9th percentile of cowardly punts in 2023 if the Jets intentionally took the delay of game penalty, as it insinuates the Jets essentially decided to punt from fourth-and-6 at the 39. That likely was not the case, but even when looking at the decision to punt on fourth-and-11 from the 44, the punt still ranks at the 94th percentile for its cowardliness in 2023.
NYJ decided to punt to CLE from the CLE 39* on 4th & 6* with 13:34 remaining in the 4th while losing 17 to 34.
With a Surrender Index of 67.94, this punt ranks at the 99.9th percentile of cowardly punts of the 2023 season, and the 99.6th percentile of all punts since 1999.
— Surrender Index 90 (@surrender_idx90) December 29, 2023
*NYJ committed a (likely intentional) delay of game penalty, moving the play from 4th & 6 at the CLE 39 to 4th & 11 at the CLE 44.
If this penalty was in fact unintentional, the Surrender Index would be 9.1, ranking at the 94th percentile of the 2023 season.
— Surrender Index 90 (@surrender_idx90) December 29, 2023
So, on back-to-back series under the prime-time lights, Saleh made one of the top-8% most cowardly punt decisions by a head coach in 2023.
It’s far from the first time that Saleh has been exposed by the Surrender Index. The account has called out Saleh nine times this season (from what I can tell, the account will automatically post anytime a coach makes a decision that ranks at the 90th percentile or higher in cowardliness).
Saleh has been subjected to the fifth-most callouts from the Surrender Index among head coaches this year:
- 1. Mike Tomlin/Steelers: 14
- 2. Bill Belichick/Patriots: 13
- T3. Pete Carroll/Seahawks: 10
- T3. Zac Taylor/Bengals: 10
- 5. Robert Saleh/Jets: 9
While there are three future-HOF coaches on this list, they are legacy coaches whose primes have long passed. None of them have won a playoff game in this decade. All three are amongst the longest-tenured coaches in the league and may be moving on from their teams soon. Tomlin, Belichick, and Carroll are notoriously old-hat in their decision-making and have not caught up to modern trends in recent years. As a younger head coach, this is not the company Saleh wants to be keeping – not in the year 2023.
When Rodgers was injured, the 2023 season became an opportunity for Saleh and the Jets’ coaching staff to prove their mettle. With expectations significantly lowered, they had a chance to show they could coach up a doubted team to vastly exceed expectations. If they could pull it off, it would inspire further confidence that the Jets had a ready-made championship infrastructure for Rodgers to jump into.
Instead, Saleh and the Jets have done the complete opposite. With consistent boneheaded decisions like these punts, Saleh and the Jets’ coaching staff have done nothing to show they are capable of winning a championship with any quarterback under center, even one as talented as Rodgers.
A healthy Rodgers would make the Jets a significantly better team, but would his presence change Saleh’s alarming tendency to make poor game-management decisions? Probably not. These types of things are entirely within Saleh’s control – fully independent of the talent and performance of the players on the field – and in these controllable areas, Saleh has continuously come up small.
Saleh has been criticized throughout the season for turning the Jets into a team that plays overly conservative and downright scared. The analytics back up those criticisms, proving that the public vitriol toward Saleh is not just measly WFAN-caller hoopla – it’s based on legitimate evidence.
All valid points. This year being an opportunity to show what you can do under extreme circumstances and Saleh failed miserably. The Hackett hire was one-dimensional (to facilitate Rodgers). On his own, he is close to inept. What was Saleh’s input to mitigate what clearly wasn’t working? Nothing that seemed to work. His philosophies appear rigid and that’s never a good thing. We seem to get stuck with these types as HCs. Rodgers will mitigate a lot of this, as he marches to his own drum, but the Packers when good always seemed to fold late in the year as well, so Rodgers is not a cure all. Saleh says “we have to look inward”. I hope he’s honest with himself…otherwise he’ll be fired by this time next year.