NY Jets’ best WR option this offseason might surprise you

The New York Jets need a WR2 this offseason, and one name stands out as the top option

This is the move the New York Jets should have made the minute Corey Davis retired.

It is difficult to tease out whether the Jets’ offensive line or receiving corps has had a more detrimental impact on the team this season. As bad as the line is, the lack of options has often left the team’s quarterbacks unable to release the ball to avoid pressure.

That being said, with Garrett Wilson, Tyler Conklin, and Breece Hall in tow, the Jets’ pass-catching corps may be surprisingly close to adequacy. The team’s clear-cut need is a No. 2 receiver. Despite Wilson’s slightly disappointing season relative to expectations, he is the Jets’ X receiver. He simply needs someone on the other side to remove some of the pressure from him and keep defenses from constantly double-teaming him.

Here are the Jets’ top five options to buoy their receiving corps this offseason. Most of these options assume that the team will also pick up a quality fourth receiver who can potentially unseat Allen Lazard as the WR3. However, a receiver like that can be selected in the middle rounds of the draft or signed for relatively cheap.

5. Kendrick Bourne

Several options could slot in here, all of whom profile as No. 3 receivers. Gabe Davis has been the Bills’ No. 2 receiver for three years now, but he has been usurped by Dalton Kincaid (and possibly James Cook as well). If he couldn’t maintain the No. 2 role behind Stefon Diggs with Josh Allen throwing him the football, he’s not a good option — and he is likely to be overpaid on the market due to reputation.

Hollywood Brown may have a reputation as a No. 2 receiver, but he doesn’t have the production to match it. He’s simply been a subpar player this season and somehow got worse when Kyler Murray returned. Brown’s 11.3 yards per reception do nothing for a player whose stock in trade is his deep ability. His 1.25 yards per route run ranks 54th out of 67 qualified receivers. The Jets should pass.

Meanwhile, Kendrick Bourne may just be the fifth-best option for the Jets. He is certainly not ideal for many reasons, most prominently that he tore his ACL at the end of October. He was also never a standout receiver on a Patriots receiving corps sorely lacking an alpha. Still, he averaged 4.6 catches for 50.8 yards and 0.5 touchdowns per game this season, which would have translated to 79 catches for 864 yards and 9 touchdowns over a 17-game season. That is a low-to-mid No. 2 receiver stat line.

While Bourne may not truly usurp Lazard as the clear-cut second receiver, he has reasonable inside-outside flexibility and can give you short-area catches when necessary. His 11.0 yards per reception this season reflects the Patriots’ anemic passing game; his 12.9 career mark is more indicative of his mid-range abilities.

Bourne can be susceptible to drops, though. He posted no drops this season but has a 6.4% rate for his career, including 7.9% in 2022. He also has five career fumbles (three over the past two seasons).

The biggest issue with Bourne is that he doesn’t add any particular skill to Wilson’s skill set. He’s a short-range target more often than not and has had mixed results on contested catches (although his 47.6% career rate is above average). Bourne is also far from a burner, as he ran a poor 4.68 40-yard dash.

Still, acquiring Bourne along with a decent No. 3/4 (such as Curtis Samuel, Odell Beckham Jr., Darnell Mooney, K.J. Osborn, Rashid Shaheed, or Greg Dortch) and a mid-round pick could give the Jets the depth they need in the receiver room. Bourne’s 14th-ranked 68 overall ESPN receiver score gives reassurance that he can be a solid addition.

4. Tee Higgins

The Bengals’ receiver is likely the hottest commodity on the market. He has a long reputation as a No. 1 receiver playing as a No. 2 due to the presence of Ja’Marr Chase.

However, Tee Higgins will likely face the franchise tag even if the Bengals don’t have the capital to re-sign him. There is little use in allowing a top receiver to walk for just a third-round compensatory pick. Therefore, even if the Bengals would not give Higgins an extension, it would take a trade to acquire him. The trade compensation would likely be too steep for the Jets, especially since they need their first-round pick to acquire a tackle.

Even if Higgins is somehow available as a free agent, the Jets need to ask themselves what he’s worth. He missed four games this season due to injury and has had a subpar season by his standards even when active.

Higgins is averaging 3.7 receptions for 57.9 yards per game, which would translate to 63 receptions for 984 yards over 17 games. While those are No. 2 receiver numbers (Corey Davis had 65 receptions for 984 yards in his top season with Tennessee), Higgins will almost certainly be paid as a No. 1, garnering over $20 million per season. He also wins mainly through contested catches; he has the fourth-highest tight-window target rate against man coverage (47.6%) of 71 qualified receivers (min. 90 routes).

Is it worth paying a player coming off a No. 2-caliber season with multiple injury concerns a No. 1-caliber deal, especially for a team seeking a No. 2?

3. Michael Pittman

It is very unlikely that Michael Pittman will actually hit the free agent market. He’s been the Colts’ top receiver since he entered the league. With Anthony Richardson returning as the team’s starting quarterback, they’re going to want to make sure his top weapon is paired with him, especially after they paid Jonathan Taylor.

Pittman is about to post his first 100-catch season after falling just short in 2022 (99). He has reliable hands, dropping 3.9% of his passes this season and 5% for his career. Still, for a player with a career average depth of target of 8.7, those catch numbers are not as impressive; nor is his 71.3% career catch rate. It is surprising to see a receiver who plays 72% of his snaps on the outside with such a low ADOT and yards per catch (10.7).

In that way, Pittman does not fit the Jets’ needs that well. Wilson already occupies the short-to-intermediate area of the field with a lot more speed (4.39) than Pittman (4.52) does. With Lazard’s lack of speed and agility, the Jets would still lack that consistent intermediate-to-deep threat and would have an awful lot of options limited to the shorter areas of the field, especially counting Hall and Conklin.

Still, Pittman’s consistent ability to compile volume in lackluster offenses makes him a good target. He might command less than Higgins simply because he does not have the same playmaking reputation. Perhaps he would be available for No. 2 receiver money, which might make him worth a look.

2. Davante Adams

This is the most popular name out there and the one that may be most likely to end up in New York. The Rodgers-Davante Adams connection was one of the most prolific in NFL history, and both players have clearly been eager to reunite. Adams is disgruntled in the Raiders’ messy situation.

The biggest obstacle to acquiring Adams is not money; his contract is relatively reasonable for a receiver of his caliber, at least from the perspective of the acquiring team. Adams has a $16.9 million guaranteed base salary in 2024 and would have a $17.5 million cap hit in 2024 if the Jets were to acquire him. He does not have any guaranteed base salary remaining on his contract after 2024, though, giving some flexibility in adjusting his contract.

The biggest problem is that Adams’ base salary is $35.6 million in both 2025 and 2026. He would likely need to make some adjustments to his contract to make his cap hit more manageable in those seasons more so than in 2024.

The issue for the Raiders is that trading Adams prior to June 1 would incur $23.6 million in dead cap with just $1.8 million in savings. Meanwhile, after June 1, they could save $17.5 million with $7.9 million in dead cap, a much more attractive option. The Jets may not be able to wait for June 2 to acquire their No. 2 receiver, though.

The Raiders could potentially restructure Adams’ contract the way the Packers did with Rodgers, aggregating it all as base salary and then allowing the Jets to negotiate the details with Adams. The question remains if Adams would be willing to take a Rodgers-like pay cut to play with his favorite quarterback.

The overarching problem here, though, is the assets required to trade for Adams. If the Raiders made the aforementioned contract adjustment, that would likely reduce the compensation in the deal, as the Jets would be taking on Adams’ full salary. Still, it’s hard to imagine such a deal would include anything less than a second-rounder and an additional mid-round pick. Is that a trade the Jets can afford to make with their cap situation and multiple team needs?

There remains another sneaky question about Adams, too: can he sustain an elite level of play commensurate with the investment required to acquire him? He will be entering his age-32 season and averages just 11.4 yards per reception this season. His 1.94 yards per route run is also his lowest mark since 2017. Furthermore, he has a 7.6% drop rate, has caught just 7 of 26 contested targets (26.9%), and has the second-lowest YAC per reception mark of his career (3.5).

To be fair, the Raiders’ quarterback situation has been subpar this season, the worst quarterbacking Adams has played with in his career. Still, he’s not as much of an automatic acquisition as he would have been a year or two ago.

1. Mike Evans

Mike Evans is the Jets’ best receiving option simply because he fits the team’s timeline the best. They’re trying to go all-in with Aaron Rodgers in 2024 and maybe 2025. Heading into his age-31 season, Evans is likely to command a two-to-three-year deal, which mirrors that competitiveness window.

Evans’ year-in and year-out consistency is among the most impressive of any receiver in NFL history. He has recorded 10 consecutive seasons of 1,000+ receiving yards, averaging 15.3 yards per reception and scoring 94 touchdowns during that time. He hasn’t missed a beat this season, catching 73 balls for 1,163 yards and 13 touchdowns in 15 games. His 2.45 yards per route run ranks 10th-best out of 67 qualified receivers (min. 55 targets), outdoing the marks of the other receivers on this list (Adams 1.94, Pittman 2.06, Higgins 1.70, Bourne 1.73).

Evans has seen many contested targets this season, going 16-for-30 (53.3%), the 12th-best mark among receivers. Those 30 contested targets are tied for the second-most among receivers. To a certain extent, the number is concerning, as contested catch ability is one of the first skills to deteriorate as a receiver ages. Furthermore, his 6.4% drop rate is worse than the 5.5% league average for receivers, lining up with his 8% career average. Evans appears to be a receiver who can catch the tough ones but drop the easy ones.

Reassuringly, though, Evans ranks sixth out of 99 receivers listed by ESPNAnalytics in their Open Score metric. That would indicate he is not just winning on contested catches but getting open in his own right. All in all, Evans is the deep threat and contested-catch maestro the Jets could use to complement Wilson. He fits exactly what the Jets are looking for.

The biggest issue with acquiring Evans will be simply whether he is interested in coming to New York. Before the ultimatum he issued to Tampa Bay before this season started, reports indicated that he enjoys playing in Tampa and would want to retire a Buccaneer. Furthermore, it is difficult to convince a player who has been in the sunshine with no income tax to come to New Jersey’s cold weather and high tax rate.

Still, perhaps Evans will want to play with a better passer than Baker Mayfield. As well as Mayfield has played this year relative to expectations, the Buccaneers are not going to win a Super Bowl with him. Even if Evans is willing to leave Tampa, that is far from a guarantee he would be willing to come to the Jets (the Chiefs and Bills also need a top-tier receiver, among other contenders).

Overall, though, Evans is clearly the top target the Jets should pursue — not least because he will cost only money rather than draft picks.