No, the New York Jets’ offense has not improved at all, despite the head coach’s claims
New York Jets head coach Robert Saleh took to the podium on Wednesday. As you’d expect for the coach of a 6-10 team in the New York market, every word he uttered was under intense scrutiny.
One of Saleh’s most interesting statements came in response to a question about offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett. Saleh adamantly defended Hackett, even going so far as to say he thinks the offense has shown “improvement” over the past four games.
Be sure to watch the entire clip below, because this article is going to be based upon some of the points Saleh makes throughout.
"Obviously, I've got a lot of faith in him…he's adapted a lot"
Robert Saleh on Nathaniel Hackett's season as Jets OC: pic.twitter.com/mkaDKb23Ru
— Jets Videos (@snyjets) January 3, 2024
Saleh’s defense of Hackett and the Jets’ offense is littered with fallacies that are easily disproven by the data. We’re going to unpack some of those right here.
Fallacy #1: The Jets’ offense has improved over the past four games
First of all, Saleh is way off the mark in claiming the Jets’ offense has looked any different recently.
Saleh is probably basing his argument on the Jets’ point totals. They are averaging 20 points per game over their past four contests – worthy of a banner by Jets standards. Saleh specifically cited that the Jets have two 30-plus point games over the past four weeks.
However, basic common sense is all you need to understand how grossly misleading those point totals are.
In a 30-6 victory against Houston in Week 14, the Jets scored three field goals on drives that already began in Houston territory, and they actually went backwards on all three of those drives. So, the offense really generated only 21 points in this game.
The following week, the Jets got shut out in Miami with their playoff hopes on the line.
Saleh quickly brushes it aside, nonchalantly labeling it “a bad game against Miami” as if getting shut out is just an innocent mistake that happens to everyone once in a while, like forgetting to bless someone when they sneeze (which Quinnen Williams would never forget to do). This shutout is made more embarrassing by the fact that Miami was on a short week coming off a Monday night game – one in which Titans rookie Will Levis led Tennessee to 28 points and 403 yards of offense on the same field.
After that, the Jets picked up a 30-28 win over Washington. Even against a Commanders defense that is the NFL’s second-worst based on DVOA, the Jets’ offense didn’t actually do much in this game. New York scored 17 of its 30 points on drives that started in Washington territory, meaning they finished the game with only 13 points on drives that started on their own side of the field. That was across 12 possessions; they averaged 21.6 yards and 1.1 points per drive when getting the ball on their side of the 50.
Next up, the Jets went into Cleveland and suffered a 37-20 blowout loss. In a vacuum, 20 points isn’t too bad. But the Jets scored seven points on a pick-six by Jermaine Johnson and another three points on a drive that started in Cleveland territory (which they only gained nine yards on). The offense actually generated 10 points. Throw in a pick-six by Trevor Siemian, and you could say they essentially netted three points.
Ultimately, over the past four games, the Jets’ offense scored 44 points on drives that started in their own territory – just 11 points per game. That sure does not sound like an offense that is improving.
Here’s how the Jets’ offense has trended in terms of offensive EPA per play:
- Weeks 1-13: -0.246 (32nd)
- Weeks 14-17: -0.214 (31st)
Technically, Saleh is telling the truth. The Jets are improving!
Fallacy #2: Hackett deserves credit for his adaptation with pre-snap motion
Saleh argues that Hackett has displayed “adaptation” over the second half of the season, and one of the reasons he cites is pre-snap motion.
In actuality, the Jets’ emphasis on pre-snap motion has hardly changed at all.
According to NFL Next Gen Stats, the Jets used pre-snap motion on 38.8% of their offensive plays through Week 8, which ranked 29th over that span.
From Weeks 9-17, that rate moved up slightly to 40.9%, although the Jets still ranked in the exact same spot: 29th. The league average is 54%.
The Jets’ increase in motion usage is more apparent if you look at the past four games, although it’s nothing drastic. From Weeks 14-17, the Jets used motion on 49.3% of their plays, ranking 21st. That’s still nearly 5% below the league average.
New York has continued to use motion at a significantly below-average rate throughout the entire season. I’m not exactly sure what Saleh had in mind when he claimed the Jets have shown adaptation in this area. Their motion usage has increased marginally, but not anywhere close to a notable extent.
Fallacy #3: Hackett deserves credit for his adaptation with screens
Saleh also briefly mentions screens when rattling off reasons for Hackett’s supposed adaptation.
In terms of making the effort to call screens, it is true that Hackett has adjusted in the second half of the year. Through Week 8, the Jets threw a league-low 15 screen passes, per NGS. But since Week 9, they are tied for 12th with 29 screen passes.
Unfortunately, that adjustment doesn’t mean a whole lot when your screen plays do not actually work.
Since Week 9, the Jets rank 31st in the NFL with a 24.1% success rate (percentage of plays generating positive EPA) on screen passes, per NGS. Only seven of their 29 screen passes resulted in positive EPA.
Scree-play success is largely dependent on coaching. To run screens successfully, it’s imperative to have a numbers advantage, and to gain that advantage, your coach needs to excel at two things: 1) Knowing how to design good screen plays and 2) having a strong feel for when to call them. The latter is arguably more important, because every play looks good on paper. It’s the timing that determines whether it looks good on the field.
Supporting the idea that screen success is highly coaching-dependent, most of the top teams in the screen department are led by touted offensive coaches.
These are the top six teams in screen success rate this season: Kansas City (56.8%), Buffalo (52.2%), San Francisco (51.1%), Dallas (47.8%), Cincinnati (46.2%), and Indianapolis (44.9%). On that list, you have Andy Reid, Kyle Shanahan, Mike McCarthy, Zac Taylor, and Shane Steichen. Also in the top 14 are Ben Johnson’s Lions, Todd Monken’s Ravens, and Sean McVay’s Rams.
Interestingly, the Jets were much better at screens before Hackett bumped up his reliance on them. Through Week 8, when they ranked last in screen passes, the Jets had a 46.7% success rate on screens (7-of-15). Perhaps they would’ve been better off using screens at an infrequent rate.
Hackett does not deserve brownie points for calling more screens just because he’s trying something different. Since adding more screens into the playbook, the Jets’ production on screens has been awful, and that falls on him as much as it does on the players. What good is adaptation if it doesn’t make the team better?
Fallacy #4: The film debunks the numbers
The main point of Saleh’s argument is that the Jets’ recent offensive improvements can be seen on tape but may not show up in the stats. You can gather that from these statements:
“It’s going to be hard for people to recognize it, but, starting with the Atlanta game, through tape, [we’ve] seen a lot of improvement. Not going to get into stats… Felt like the offense really took a step against Atlanta. I know the points weren’t there, but there was a lot of opportunity to be had in that game.”
Reading between the lines, these comments seem to imply Saleh believes Hackett is doing a great job of cooking up opportunities for the players, and that the Jets are only putting up terrible numbers because the players are doing a poor job of executing the opportunities Hackett is creating.
While the Jets have definitely been hampered by their lack of talent this year, it is ignorant to claim the Jets’ struggles fall entirely on the players, or to subtly suggest that Hackett is secretly a mastermind if you watch the film. The players and the coaches can be poor at the same time.
Yes, any coach would be made to look worse by the Jets’ crop of talent at quarterback, offensive line, and WR2/WR3 this season. But we all have eyes. We can all see that the coaching has been poor, too. There’s no hiding from it.
I, like everyone outside of the Jets’ building, cannot analyze the Jets’ offensive film with the detail that only the Jets themselves can. Maybe I’m overlooking a few things and I would understand Saleh’s points if I he had the chance to sit down and explain them to me. With that being said, I have watched every play of the Jets’ All-22 tape this year, and I can assure Jets fans that Hackett is not secretly scheming like a genius beneath everyone’s noses.
If you don’t believe me (a stats nerd), go watch any of Joe Blewett’s film reviews from this season. The Jets’ scheme, play designs, and play calling are brutal. No experienced film junkie would watch the Jets’ tape from this season and dispute that claim.
The players have struggled, but Hackett has exacerbated the situation by making the players’ jobs harder. I rarely come away from a film review thinking, “Wow, there were a lot of well-designed plays that were botched by the execution,” or “Wow, this offense would look amazing if Aaron Rodgers were in it.” Do I have those thoughts occasionally? Of course. Does it happen enough to justify the Jets’ boundless defense of Hackett? Absolutely not.
Hackett’s route concepts are consistently blanketed by the perfect defensive counter. His screen plays are not well-designed or properly timed. He rarely calls a perfect play that cooks up an easy completion for the pass game or a wide-open hole for the run game. His run-pass tendencies are predictable and lead to consistent advantages for the defense.
Simply put, it always feels like the players’ execution must be perfect for Hackett’s play calls to work. He just doesn’t do favors for his players – and that’s what being a coach in the modern NFL is all about.
Flip on any non-Jets game. After training your eyes to watch the Jets, it becomes jarring to witness how easy other teams make it look to scheme up easy offense. Play-action boots with wide-open first downs in the flat, jet sweeps with wide-open space on the edge, well-timed screens that give your star an easy chance to cook, efficient RPO plays with easy decisions – other offenses pull out these types of plays on the regular. Hackett rarely creates freebies for his players. It feels like every first down is a grind for the Jets.
Jets fans have watched every game this season. No, not all of them have intensely analyzed the All-22 tape, nor do they know the Jets’ playbook or have the capability to break down film like an NFL head coach. But to look fans in the face and essentially tell them they don’t know what they’re watching when they’ve seen their team perform historically poorly in nearly every offensive category is… a strange move, to say the least.
Stats can never tell the entire story on their own, but the film doesn’t absolve the Jets in this particular situation. Their film paints just as ugly of a picture as their numbers, regardless of what Saleh says. Maybe the average WFAN caller cannot call him out on it, but those of us who punish ourselves every week by grinding the tape are fully justified to question Saleh for claiming the tape can absolve Hackett for his unit’s hideous numbers.
The Jets’ flawed excuses for a historically poor offense continue to astound me. While there’s only so much this regime can do to win back the faith of Jets fans considering the resume they’ve already built on the field, taking some accountability would go a long way toward re-instilling confidence. It does not seem they are willing to do that. They’ll say whatever it takes to defend Aaron Rodgers’ friend – even if it means using reasons that are not backed up by evidence.
Overall, your breakdown is legit. There is one area that gets overlooked, and to me it’s the MOST important thing in this entire evaluation. No team has had the OL ravaged by injury as badly as the Jets. That’s a fact, and we don’t like it because we want to find another reason for this disaster. While it’s not the ONLY reason it’s the most important, no team can run offense without an OL.
Yes, you can put on any other game and see teams doing things the Jets don’t, however none of those teams had the same OL problems. The other slight disagreement is, yes for some games you are correct, but lets say you put on the Patriots game vs. the Saints, their game against the chargers, or they 10-7 gem vs. the Giants and you will NOT see the success you claim they have the Jets don’t.
My counter to that, is that you have to watch every game from some other team, not just the one they look good and we say “look even this sh**ty team can do it.” I have seen MANY offensive disasters this year by teams not named the New York Jets.
Now, I’m not writing this to give Hackett a pass, or even Saleh (who I still think is the right guy for this job) and I’m confident what he is saying behind closed doors is different than what he’s saying in his press conferences.
That last line is key. Saleh is definitely a “praise in public” manager, we hope he is also a “criticize in private” manager. While your post about the O line is totally valid, Nania’s article is still on the money.
I’ve been watching Jets football for 50 years and this offense is pathetic. I’m shocked when a play design actually leads to an open receiver. To be bad at screens when you’ve got Breece Hall is unforgivable. I almost never see us execute the quick slants that other teams do against us routinely. With this O line those should be staple plays.
I understand Saleh not wanting to fire Hackett mid-season after he got fired mid-season last year, but it concerns me that they announced already that Hackett would be back next year, because he doesn’t deserve to be. There are times when it’s admirable to be a nice boss, but when push comes to shove, there’s too much at stake to not make the hard decisions.
I am not in total disagreement with the article, or your comments, in fact, I do agree about the offensive design. I also would say Saleh, hits hard when needed, we saw some of it on hard knocks. It’s not good policy to do in public.
The only thing, I was trying to point out with Nania (who is as good as it gets as a Jets reporter and the reason I subscribe to this site) was if we are comparing we need to be fair. The Patoilets scored the least amount of points of any team this season. That’s the WORST offense, and if we watched them all season and picked them apart like we do the Jets, we’d be saying “it’s the worst in the league” that’s all.
I am hoping they bring in some offensive coaches with experience to assist Hackett. Downing has brought nothing to the table, I thought he would. Carter isn’t a good OL coach, we haven’t had one of those since Callahan. It’s WAAAAAYYY past time to move on from Calabrese as QB coach, and the WR’s need work.
I’d like to see someone such as Frank Reich, Jay Gruden, Jim Caldwell, Mike Munchack, or Pep Hamilton added to the staff. So, in a way we are in agreement.
This is the best, most accurate paragraph written about the Jets” offense this year (and last for that matter)!
“Flip on any non-Jets game. After training your eyes to watch the Jets, it becomes jarring to witness how easy other teams make it look to scheme up easy offense. Play-action boots with wide-open first downs in the flat, jet sweeps with wide-open space on the edge, well-timed screens that give your star an easy chance to cook, efficient RPO plays with easy decisions – other offenses pull out these types of plays on the regular. Hackett rarely creates freebies for his players. It feels like every first down is a grind for the Jets.”