Wild Card Saturday offers some intriguing opportunities for NFL bettors
With the New York Jets eliminated from the playoffs, Jets fans can take to betting away their sorrows during the playoff run. Betting advice is always tricky because it doesn’t tell you how much to bet, which is the crux of the matter.
When I give prop bet advice, my philosophy is to select at least some higher-reward options that I believe are more likely to happen than the odds say they are. That does not mean all of the bets will work out; do not sell your soul on the matter. However, in the long run, if you bet conservatively on these options, you can come out with a tidy payout.
With that in mind, here are some of my favorite same-game parlays for Wild Card Saturday featuring the Houston Texans vs. Cleveland Browns and Kansas City Chiefs vs. Miami Dolphins.
Cleveland @ Houston
Amari Cooper over 72.5 receiving yards and Nico Collins under 74.5 receiving yards (+228)
The Texans rank 28th in DVOA against the opponent’s No. 1 receiver. Amari Cooper had 265 receiving yards against Houston just a few weeks ago. Meanwhile, Nico Collins posted just 18 receiving yards in that same game, albeit without C.J. Stroud, which changes the picture significantly. Still, the Browns rank first in DVOA against the opponent’s No. 1 receiver and sixth in allowing just 56.2 yards per game to those receivers.
David Njoku anytime TD and Cleveland Browns moneyline (+268)
Njoku scored at least one touchdown in three of the five games Joe Flacco played in. Ultimately, I believe Cleveland’s dominant defense will be able to contain C.J. Stroud far more than Houston’s mediocre one can stop Cooper and David Njoku.
C.J. Stroud under 245.5 passing yards and Devin Singletary over 65.5 rushing yards (+218)
The Browns allow just 168.7 passing yards per game, and C.J. Stroud passes for 274.0 yards per game. Something’s got to give here, and I think it will be Stroud. Just as he struggled mightily against the Jets, who can contain the deep ball, I think he will scuffle against Cleveland’s secondary when he’s forced to check the ball down. Therefore, I believe the Texans will try to run the ball more.
Cleveland’s 11th-ranked run defense allows 105.5 yards per game, which is far more accessible than their pass defense. Devin Singletary carried the ball just 9 times for 44 yards in the last matchup, but I think he’ll go over this time.
Miami @ Kansas City
Isiah Pacheco under 65.5 rushing yards and Rashee Rice over 62.5 receiving yards (+220)
The Dolphins allow the seventh-fewest rush yards per game (97.1), while they allow the eighth-most yards to an opponent’s No. 1 receiver (83.2) while ranking 28th in DVOA against them. Pacheco exceeded 65.5 rushing yards six times in 14 games this season; he barely eclipsed it at 66 yards against Miami in the first matchup. Rice had just two catches for 17 yards against Miami in the first tilt, but this is still a good matchup for him.
Tyreek Hill under 83.5 receiving yards and Raheem Mostert anytime TD (+296)
As good as Tyreek Hill is, he’s battling injury upon injury. The Chiefs rank fifth in DVOA against an opponent’s No. 1 receiver, including second with just 49.4 yards allowed per game. Hill had 8 catches for 62 yards in the first matchup and failed to clear 83.5 yards in three of his last four contests.
Mostert set a Dolphins record with 21 total touchdowns this season, and he scored one in the first matchup. Although Kansas City allowed just 10 rushing touchdowns all season (and another four receiving touchdowns to running backs), Mostert is always a good bet to score.
Kansas City Chiefs to win by 7-12 points and Patrick Mahomes under 27.5 rush yards (+800)
These are two somewhat scuffling teams. The differential was seven points in the first game, and I think that sounds about right for this game, too. Seven of the Chiefs’ games were decided by between 7-12 points, and 6 of them were between 1-6 points, making it hard to select between the two.
Mahomes ran for over 27.5 yards in 8 of 16 games this season, but the Miami matchup was not one of them (24). The Dolphins allowed 19.1 rush yards per game to quarterbacks, which ranked 17th among defenses.
