It’s Super Wild Card Weekend, which is prime online sports betting time. That’s true even for the seemingly lopsided games like the No. 2 Buffalo Bills hosting the No. 7 Pittsburgh Steelers. But before we go in-depth on that game, click here to activate a Bet $1, Get $150 Bonus with ESPN Bet Promo Code JETSX.
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The History of the No. 7 Seed in the NFL Playoffs
When the NFL introduced the No. 7 seed in the 2020 season (January 2021 playoffs), the thought process simply revolved around league balance. The NFL believed it had enough good teams that parity would rule the day, creating more entertaining football on what would become Super Wild Card Weekend.
Nothing could have been further from the truth, though.
In the three seasons that the No. 7 seed has existed, it’s been proven that they don’t really belong. Number 7 seeds were 0-6— before the Green Bay Packers shocking upset over the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday, and they’ve lost by an average of 12.2 points per game.
That includes a beatdown that the Steelers took at the hands of the Kansas City Chiefs just two seasons ago—when they lost by 21 points.
Now, the Steelers find themselves in a similar hole. They’re the seventh seed headed up against a red-hot Buffalo Bills team. They will send out their third quarterback of the season, Mason Rudolph, and play without their best player, EDGE defender T.J. Watt. And they’ll do so while playing in terrible weather.
To say the odds are stacked against Pittsburgh would be an understatement. The Steelers are the massive underdogs in this one for a reason. Pittsburgh coming out on top would be one of the greatest upsets in NFL history.
ESPN Bet Odds: Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Buffalo Bills
It should come as no shock that the Bills are the huge favorites in this one. They’re 9.5-point home favorites. Although, to be fair, that’s underselling the No. 2 seeds that have won by an average of 12.2 points against No. 7 seeds in the last three playoffs.
The Bills are given -500 odds, or an implied 83.3% chance to pull off the victory. Meanwhile, the Steelers are given +380 odds, or an implied 20.8% chance to become the first No. 2 seed to win a playoff game.
The point total for this one is currently set at 33.5 points. That’s by far the lowest this weekend. That’s a function of both the Steelers’ complete lack of offense and the incredibly poor weather headed to Buffalo.
Perhaps that gives the Steelers a chance to make a game of this? We’ll find out on Monday.
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