Rather than trading down, should the New York Jets trade up?
Will Trader Joe be at it again for the New York Jets?
We’ve already talked about the fact that Joe Douglas has never traded down in the first round of the NFL Draft. One thing he’s done several times, though, is trade up.
Though the numbers generally favor trading down, no one ever accused Douglas of following the numbers too closely. With reports that he has an affinity for Oregon State tackle Taliese Fuaga, it’s easy to see that Douglas can fall in love with a player and then pay the price to acquire him. That’s what clearly happened with Jermaine Johnson in 2022; the Jets started trying to trade up for him in the middle of the first round before finally sealing the deal with the Tennessee Titans at No. 26.
Speaking of the Titans, the scenario in which the Jets could trade up hinges on their draft spot.
Best offensive tackle
The names most closely associated with the Jets in the draft are Olu Fashanu and Taliese Fuaga. J.C. Latham seems to be less favored even though he is Joe Blewett’s No. 2 tackle. This is all because of the assumption that Joe Alt will be off the board by the time the Jets pick.
NFL Mock Draft Database’s consensus big board ranks Alt as the seventh-best prospect in the draft. That corresponds with his most frequent draft slot, No. 7 to the Titans. It’s by a wide margin, too — 58% of the mock drafts they track have Alt going to the Titans.
But what if he doesn’t? If Alt gets past No. 7, that’s when the Jets could pounce.
The Atlanta Falcons have the No. 8 pick. The consensus is that Atlanta will pick a defensive player. EDGE Dallas Turner is most frequently mocked to them (49%). Meanwhile, at the next pick, the Chicago Bears could take a tackle.
Atlanta may not want to trade down and run the risk that Chicago takes the player they prefer. However, if Alt is there at No. 8, the Jets may try to trade with Atlanta and jump the Bears for Alt.
Alt vs. Fashanu
Since early 2023, it seemed that the consensus top-two tackles in the 2024 draft would be Alt and Fashanu. Fashanu was considered the better prospect until the end of 2023 when Alt pulled ahead. Still, Fashanu is held in high regard by most draft analysts, and his current most frequently mocked spot is at No. 10 to the Jets.
The fact that NFL Network’s Daniel Jeremiah mocked Fuaga to the Jets with Fashanu still on the board was surprising to many analysts. Then, the report that Douglas loves Fuaga came out, perhaps corroborating Jeremiah’s choice. That may also indicate that the Jets don’t think as highly of Fashanu.
Blewett would agree with that assessment, as he sees Fashanu as a raw prospect who may not be worthy of the No. 10 pick. He prefers Alt and Latham over Fashanu.
Perhaps the Titans will view things differently, though. Many see Fashanu as the best pass-blocker in the class; maybe the Titans will go for that. If so, Alt could fall past No. 7.
Or he could go before then. The Giants need a right tackle after the Evan Neal pick failed, although they may not be eager to dip into the draft for that position once more. Some mock drafts have the Patriots selecting him with left tackle Trent Brown hitting free agency. A few mocks have him going at No. 2 to Washington, No. 5 to the Chargers, or No. 9 to the Bears.
That last one is why the Jets may choose to trade up — either the Bears or any other team that may try to leapfrog them for Alt.
The cost
Jumping two picks in the top 10 should not cost more than a fourth-round pick, or at most a fourth and a seventh. While the Jets are already short draft capital, they do have two fourth-rounders after the Jacob Martin trade during the 2022 season. They are also projected to receive three seventh-round compensatory picks, giving them an abundance in the last round.
The chance to lock down the left tackle spot for a decade should make that trade worthwhile. Alt is the most complete tackle in the draft in both the run and pass games — and his frame is not even fully developed yet. Blewett stated that there is a “sizable cushion” between Alt and the other tackles.
We haven’t heard much noise about the Jets and Alt mostly because the widespread belief is that he’ll be off the board before then. Still, if the Titans choose to go with Fashanu, trading up may become a realistic possibility.
These projections of “what it would take” to move up etc. are laughable to me. Any team can ask for whatever they want for a pick. The “cost to move up” is equal to the current market value of the pick, meaning it will cost what somebody is willing to pay. If a team is willing to give up a Third round pick for pick #7 overall based on the prospect available, then that’s “the cost.”
We have no idea what players will be available at pick “x” so we really can’t calculate “the cost” or the “value.”
Many people thought the “cost” for moving up for AVT was an overpay, yes, he’s been hurt but based on talent alone it seems the “cost” wasn’t “too high.”
That being said if they have an OT they like and can move up to get him, then do it.