This New York Jets offseason plan keeps the cost down
The New York Jets head into the free agency period with needs at offensive tackle, possibly offensive guard, wide receiver, safety, defensive tackle, and backup quarterback, among others. They also have just $4.97 million in cap space at the moment, per Over the Cap. Although they’ll be able to clear a lot more space with cuts (and possibly extensions), they’re still strapped for cap space when considering how many needs they have.
Perhaps the Jets can wait for the draft to fill some of those needs, but as they saw in 2023, relying on the draft is very risky. Therefore, their ideal plan is to fill as many needs as possible in free agency, focusing on cost-effectiveness.
Here is a prospective free agency plan for the Jets from that perspective. I’m going to use a combination of Spotrac and Pro Football Focus price projections as a base, sometimes differing if I feel the projection is too high or too low. Because this is the cheap edition, we’re avoiding the top three most expensive players at each position.
Players are listed in order of lineup on offense and defense, not order of need.
Quarterback: Ryan Tannehill, TEN
Fans keep talking about Jacoby Brissett and Gardner Minshew, but those players will likely be priced out of the Jets’ range. Entering his age-36 season, Tannehill won’t cost that much, but he has enough experience as a pocket passer to back up Rodgers. Tyrod Taylor is also an option here, especially since he’s coming off a better season than Tannehill.
Spotrac projects a one-year, $4.9 million deal, while PFF is at 2 years and $11 million. I’ll split the difference on the APY but go with one year due to his age.
Cost: 1 year, $5.2 million
Running back: Antonio Gibson, WAS
The Jets should be looking for a third-down back who can pass block and catch passes out of the backfield. Gibson has been an efficient high-volume receiving back for the last three seasons. He also has posted PFF pass-blocking grades of 75.1 and 71.9 over the past two seasons (although he was at 45.4 in 2021 when he received roughly the same number of blocking snaps as in 2022). Gibson is also entering his age-26 season, which means he should have plenty of juice left.
We’ll go with the Spotrac projection for Gibson, as it makes sense for a backup running back.
Cost: 1 year, $3.6 million
Wide receiver: Calvin Ridley, JAX
This might be cheating somewhat if we’re going economical, as Ridley will not come cheap. Still, relative to the other top receiving options on the market, he is the cheapest. Whereas Tee Higgins, Mike Evans, and Michael Pittman will all command over $20 million per season, Ridley is unlikely to hit that threshold.
Ridley makes sense for the Jets because he is a deep threat and a strong route-runner. There are red flags on his profile, such as shaky hands, inefficiency, and poor play as the No. 1 threat in Jacksonville’s offense. Still, he is the only true No. 2 receiver on the market if the other three players are tagged. Ridley will reportedly hit free agency this offseason, unlike the others who may face the franchise tag.
Spotrac projects a four-year, $68 million deal for Ridley. PFF has a similar average per year ($16.25 million) but projects only two seasons. We’ll split the difference between the two.
Cost: 3 years, $49.8 million ($16.6 million APY)
Wide receiver: Noah Brown, HOU
Brown is not a technically sound route-runner, but he put up good production in Houston’s high-flying offense. He has an extensive injury history, likely reducing his cost. PFF projects him to receive a $3.5 million average per year; if he comes cheaper than Mecole Hardman did in 2023, the Jets should sign on the dotted line.
Cost: 2 years, $8 million ($4 million APY)
Left tackle: Andrus Peat, NO
Peat is not listed in PFF’s top 150 free agents, but he’s the fifth-best tackle in Michael Nania’s free agent offensive line rankings. He began the season as a backup for New Orleans before cracking the starting lineup in Week 4, where he remained for the rest of the year.
Peat’s 6.3% pressure rate was roughly at the tackle average (6.2%). His pressures affected the quarterback more than average, though, as 10 of his 30 pressures (33.3%) resulted in a sack or quarterback hit (OT league average: 29.7%).
Still, most of Peat’s poor numbers were the result of one miserable game against Jacksonville in which he allowed 10 pressures. If you exclude that game, Peat allowed 20 pressures on 414 pass-blocking snaps, a solid pressure rate of 4.8%.
As a run blocker, Peat’s 62.1 PFF run-blocking grade was about average, ranking at the 49th percentile among qualified tackles. However, that was tied for his best mark over the past six seasons. His average mark over that span was 55.0.
Overall, Peat is an average tackle who could plug the Jets’ left tackle spot reasonably well. He has had some injury issues and is certainly not a great candidate, but no cheap option will be. Neither Spotrac nor PFF has an evaluation of his value on the market. Still, considering his age (30) and injury history, I think the Jets can get him at a decent price.
Cost: 2 years, $13 million ($6.5 million APY)
Left guard: James Hurst, NO
This assumes that the Jets choose to release Laken Tomlinson.
I think the Jets should pursue Hurst for two reasons: his pass-blocking has been consistently solid throughout his career at both guard spots, and he has extensive tackle experience. Hurst is Nania’s sixth-ranked free-agent guard.
The one concern I would have is signing another poor run-blocker. As much as the Jets want to emphasize pass-blocking, they need someone to be able to push the pile for Breece Hall. In that sense, going for Kevin Zeitler of the Ravens, who is more of an average run-blocker, might make more sense.
Still, Hurst’s tackle experience puts him over the top for me. The Jets need to make sure their tackle situation is rock-solid. They have Wes Schweitzer as a capable enough interior option to step in if Hurst needs to move outside. Especially when choosing injury-prone options at tackle like Peat and Fant, bringing in more players with solid tackle experience makes too much sense to ignore.
Neither PFF nor Spotrac lists a projection for Hurst, but given his age, it’ll probably be an average one.
Cost: 2 years, $12 million ($6 million APY)
Right tackle: George Fant, HOU
This is unlikely to happen, as the relationship between Fant and the Jets appeared to sour when the team did not extend his contract before the 2022 season.
Still, Fant is one of the best cost-effective options available at tackle. We know what he is as a run-blocker — definitely below average — but he was strong as a pass-blocker in 2023. Fant was in the 63rd percentile among tackles in net pressure rate. While he didn’t reach his 2021 highs, he proved that his solid pass-blocking was not a fluke.
However, Fant has an extensive injury history, as Jets fans are well aware. Entering his age-32 season, he likely won’t command a huge contract. PFF projects a one-year, $4 million deal, but that seems a bit low in a very weak tackle class.
Cost: 1 year, $7 million
Swing tackle: Jermaine Eluemunor, LV
Even though Eluemunor is Nania’s fourth-best free agent tackle statistically, the fact that he split reps for several games should give pause. Did he really play as well as his numbers indicate? Additionally, he had similar numbers the year before but still signed just a one-year, $3 million deal with the Raiders.
Some players seem to continuously receive modest deals despite apparent statistical production. Although PFF projects Eluemunor to receive a two-year, $14.5 million deal, I have a feeling the NFL will see what the Raiders did and treat Eluemunor as a low-end starter or a high-end backup. That’s what the Jets need for their swing tackle. They can let Eluemunor compete for a starting job, especially since Peat and Fant are injury-prone.
Cost: 2 years, $9 million ($4.5 million APY)
Interior offensive lineman: Trystan Colon, ARI
The Jets let Colon go last offseason, and he wound up starting several games for Arizona at left guard after they claimed him off waivers. Colon can play both guard and center, and Joe Blewett was impressed with him as a backup. Connor McGovern struggled mightily in 2023 before his season-ending knee injury. Even if McGovern would come at the veteran minimum cost, Colon is still likely an upgrade at this point.
Cost: 1 year, $1.9 million
Edge defender: Andrew Van Ginkel, MIA
If the Jets are going to let Bryce Huff walk (which their beat reporters seem to think will happen), they will need another edge defender to fill out their rotation.
Van Ginkel posted a 16.5% pressure rate this past season while also putting up a 76.5 PFF run defense grade. He has posted four consecutive seasons with a run defense grade of at least 71.7, though he’s never posted anywhere near those pass rush numbers before.
Van Ginkel is always a thorn in the Jets’ side when they play the Dolphins. The Jets should try to sign him for their rotation, giving them the flexibility to work Will McDonald into the lineup as opposed to expecting him to play a full-time edge rush role.
Cost: 2 years, $13 million (PFF, $6.5 million APY)
Defensive tackle: Quinton Jefferson, NYJ
Re-signing Quinton Jefferson makes too much sense not to do it. His 12.1% pressure rate was in the top seven at the position, and though his run defense was putrid (38.7 PFF grade), he brought exactly what the Jets expected from him. He’s also a cheap option and likely won’t cost much more than he did in 2023. An extension would also push off Jefferson’s void year cap hit ($1.54 million).
Considering that Jefferson performed at roughly the same level as he did in 2022, he will likely earn roughly the same contract.
Cost: 1 year, $4 million
Defensive tackle: Maurice Hurst, CLE
Hurst had a productive season for the Browns before tearing his pectoral muscle in December. Among 121 defensive tackles with at least 125 run defense snaps, Hurst ranked seventh in PFF run defense grade (76.5), 26th in run stop rate (rate of tackles resulting in an offensive failure, 26th), and 26th with just a 5% missed tackle rate. He was also an effective pass rusher, posting a 10.4% pressure rate on 173 snaps.
Hurst is a major risk due to his injuries. He missed all but two games in 2021-22 due to a calf injury and a torn biceps. He’s also just 6-foot-2 and 290 pounds, not fitting the prototypical run-defending build the Jets would be seeking to replace Al Woods.
Still, Hurst would likely come very cheap and had a nice season in Cleveland. The Jets could go with Shelby Harris, Cleveland’s starting defensive tackle with more of a track record, but Hurst would likely come even cheaper.
Cost: 1 year, $1.3 million
Defensive tackle: Solomon Thomas, NYJ
Thomas had a productive season as a pass rusher for the Jets, especially before Jefferson went down. In his second year with the Jets, he justified his re-signing after being shut out on the stat sheet in 2022.
Cost: 1 year, $2.5 million
Strong safety: Chuck Clark, NYJ
Clark was a rock-solid player with the Ravens and never missed a snap. His surehanded tackling and strong instincts and the position won’t disappear due to a torn ACL. With Jordan Whitehead’s likely departure in free agency, the Jets should bring Clark back on the cheap.
Cost: 1 year, $2.5 million
Strong safety: Ashtyn Davis, NYJ
The Jets gave Davis a role perfectly suited to his skillset: the third linebacker spot in a big nickel package. If they try to utilize him at deep safety, bad things might happen, but if they keep him in the box, he showed that he can be a productive player.
Cost: 1 year, $1.2 million with Not Likely To Be Earned incentives
Kicker: Greg Zuerlein, NYJ
Zuerlein was one of the best kickers in the league in 2023.
Cost: 1 year, $3 million
Punter: Thomas Morstead, NYJ
Ditto for Morstead, who stabilized the Jets’ punting position (even as Braden Mann went to the Eagles and outdid him).
Cost: 1 year, $1.5 million
Totals
- Players: 1 QB, 1 RB, 2 WR, 3 OT, 2 OG, 1 ED, 3 IDL, 2 S, 1 K, 1 P – 17 total
- 2024 contract cost (based on APY): $75.3 million
The problem here is that the Jets may not be able to clear enough cap space to fill all those needs. The only real splurge in this exercise is Ridley; every other contract is pretty economical.
The Jets can clear some cap space by releasing Tomlinson and C.J. Uzomah, extending Tyler Conklin and D.J. Reed, and restructuring some contracts (such as those of Quinnen Williams, C.J. Mosley, Lazard, and John Franklin-Myers), but that still likely won’t come to $75.3 million.
This is the level of the Jets’ cap pinch. They will likely fill one of the tackle spots in the draft, so that can eliminate $6-7 million. But there isn’t much other fat to trim here; none of these contracts exceed $7 million besides the Ridley one. The costs of the defensive tackles, the other receiver, and the safeties are so minimal that even drafting at those positions rather than signing a player will save only marginal amounts of cap space.
What Joe Douglas will likely do is continue the void-year game. The Jets need to go all-in on 2024, even though it will likely make it impossible for them to extend Garrett Wilson, Sauce Gardner, Jermaine Johnson, and Alijah Vera-Tucker when the time comes. They put themselves in a really bad spot with the Rodgers deal, but now they need to do whatever they can to make it work.
This is the situation the Jets are dealing with in 2024. With all the drama surrounding them, they need to hit a home run in free agency and figure out the cap economics to have a chance of success.
