Rumor has it that the New York Jets are potentially interested in trading up to No. 1 overall to select the quarterback of their choice, largely believed to be Cam Ward. Such a move would bring excitement to the franchise that’s never been seen. After all, the Jets have only made the first overall pick once, and that was to select a WR (Keyshawn Johnson).
But with a trade-up possible, it’s worth looking back throughout NFL history to see whether or not similar moves have actually worked out. In other words, is trading up to No. 1 worth it?
We have seven examples of teams trading up to No. 1 to select a quarterback since the merger. Let’s take a look at each of these and see the effect they had on the franchise that made the move.
1975: Falcons select Steve Bartkwoski
Way back in the 1970s, trading draft picks was exceptionally rare. Teams almost never did it, let alone at the top of the draft. That is, until the Atlanta Falcons made a bold move that would portend the future.
Atlanta called up the Baltimore Colts and made a bold offer. They’d give up the No. 3 pick and All-Pro guard George Kunz to move up to No. 1 overall. With that pick, the Falcons selected Steve Bartkowski.
Bartkowski was a consensus All-American out of Cal, and is now a College Football Hall of Famer. The Falcons felt so strongly about Bartkowski that they knew they needed to have him.
Bartkowski went on to play 11 seasons for the Falcons from 1975-85. He would make two Pro Bowls and have some great individual seasons. Over his 11 years in Atlanta, he was sixth in the NFL in passing yards and sixth in the NFL in passing TDs. His numbers nearly identically mirror those of Joe Theismann over the same span.
However, the Falcons never found team success with Bartkwoski. Over his 11 years, Atlanta won just two division titles, made the playoffs only three times, and failed to reach even a conference championship game.
Meanwhile, the Colts would use the third overall pick to select guard Ken Huff. The move to trade back would give the Colts one of the best interior offensive linemen in the NFL, as Kunz would make three All-Pro teams with the Colts.
The Colts would win the AFC East three years in a row after making this trade, though they also failed to reach a conference championship game.
1983: Colts trade John Elway to Broncos
This technically isn’t a trade-up, but Elway was traded before ever taking a snap for the Colts, so the result is the same.
In one of the most famous stories in sports history, John Elway, a superstar quarterback prospect, told the Colts he would never play for them, but they drafted him anyway. They would quickly turn around and trade Elway to the Denver Broncos for guard Chris Hinton (the Broncos’ fourth overall pick that year), quarterback Mark Herrmann, and a first-round pick in 1984, which became guard Ron Solt. Yes, the Colts were involved in two of these historic megadeals and turned all but one of their picks and players acquired into guards.
For the Colts side, Hinton ended up a five-time All-Pro guard, but Solt didn’t get a second contract with the team, and Herrmann would start just three games over two years.
Meanwhile, the Broncos got one of the NFL’s legendary quarterbacks. Elway ended up in the Hall of Fame and won two Super Bowls.
It’s hard to imagine a deal going better than this one.
1990: Colts select Jeff George
In 1990, the Colts decided it was their turn to trade up for a QB. After watching the Falcons get a top-10 QB in Bartkowski and the infamous Elway trade, the Colts moved up and got their guy, Jeff George.
The Illinois quarterback, who went to high school in Indianapolis, was the clear-cut top quarterback prospect in the class. He was first-team All-Big 10 and won the Sammy Baugh Trophy.
In a reverse of 1975, it was the Falcons trading down and collecting in this one. Atlanta acquired guard Chris Hinton (yes, the same All-Pro Guard traded by Denver to acquire Elway), wide receiver Andre Rison (an All-Pro in four of his five seasons with the Falcons), a fifth-round pick that became Reggie Redding (who lasted only three seasons in the NFL), and their 1991 first-round pick, which was used to select wide receiver Mike Pritchard (who played three seasons as a starter for Atlanta).
Despite netting two All-Pros in the deal, the Falcons made the playoffs just one time with Hinton and Rison on the roster.
Meanwhile, George was a disappointment for the Colts, throwing more interceptions than touchdowns in four seasons with the team as he failed to make a single playoff appearance. In fact, George would be traded to the Falcons in 1994.
2001: Falcons select Michael Vick
The San Diego Chargers were ready to select Michael Vick with the first pick in the 2001 draft, but the two sides were never able to come to an agreement on a contract. So, instead of risking never getting a deal done, they agreed to a trade.
The Chargers would get the No. 5 pick in the 2001 draft (LaDainian Tomlinson), a third-round pick (defensive back Tay Cody), a second-round pick in 2002 (wide receiver Reche Caldwell), and wide receiver Tim Dwight. That package is highlighted by one of the five greatest running backs in NFL history, although none of the other three players amounted to much in San Diego.
Vick was a special, first-of-his-kind player coming out of the 2001 draft. Over six seasons in Atlanta, he made three Pro Bowl appearances. The Falcons made two playoff appearances under Vick, including a 2004 run to the NFC championship.
This trade was working out for Atlanta until Vick got himself into trouble off the field, forever changing his life and legacy.
Vick remains one of the truly special talents the league had ever seen, and he looked like a surefire Hall of Famer at one point. Of course, things change, and the Falcons would probably never make this trade if they knew what was coming a few years later.
Neither team was able to reach a Super Bowl with the stars acquired in this deal.
2004: Giants and Chargers swap Eli Manning for Phillip Rivers
This is another deal that isn’t really a trade-up. Both selections were made by their teams, but after Eli Manning famously refused to sign with the Chargers, a deal was struck with the Giants.
The Chargers would get Philip Rivers, a third-round pick (Nate Kaeding; yes, a kicker), a 2005 first-round pick (linebacker Shawne Merriman), and a 2005 fifth-round pick (traded for offensive tackle Roman Oben). That’s three multi-time Pro Bowlers between Rivers, Kaeding, and Merriman. Add on getting Tomlinson in the 2001 trade-down, and you can see how a strong roster can be built by taking advantage of trade-downs in this position. It’s truly a wonder how the Chargers never reached a Super Bowl with this group.
Meanwhile, the Giants got Eli Manning, a quarterback whose career passer rating was worse than that of David Garrard and Jeff Garcia. That said, Manning has two Super Bowl rings and some of the greatest playoff statistics of all time.
In hindsight, both teams would make this deal again. The Chargers got a haul and the Giants got two rings. Both quarterbacks will end up in the Hall of Fame.
2016: Rams select Jared Goff
In 2016, the Titans were already set up with a young quarterback of the future they believed in, Marcus Mariota. They had no interest in taking another one. So, they became open for business. The Rams took a swing and went for their quarterback.
Los Angeles jumped to the top of the line all the way from No. 15, giving up a haul for Jared Goff out of Cal. The move cost them a small fortune. But on the bright side, it’s not like Goff had one of the worst rookie seasons ever, right?
Yes, Goff had a historically bad rookie year, but the good news is that the move ended up landing the Rams a young coach by the name of Sean McVay in 2017. McVay would rebuild Goff into a two-time Pro Bowler across five seasons in Los Angeles, highlighted by a Super Bowl appearance in the 2018 season, where they would lose to the Patriots.
It wasn’t until after trading Goff for Matthew Stafford that Los Angeles would get over the hill, but that never happens if they don’t get Goff first.
Meanwhile, the Titans got a first-round pick (right tackle Jack Conklin), two second-round picks (defensive tackle Austin Johnson and running back Derrick Henry), a third-round pick (traded to move up for Jack Conklin), a 2017 first-round pick (wide receiver Corey Davis), and a 2017 third-round pick (tight end Jonnu Smith). What team wouldn’t kill to have a franchise right tackle, a Hall of Fame running back, a solid WR2, and a solid starting tight end? This core would eventually get to the AFC championship game in a shocking run in 2019.
2023: Panthers select Bryce Young
It’s too soon to call this one. But Bryce Young has not lived up to the expectations of a first-round pick since being selected, let alone a No. 1 overall pick whose team traded a haul to acquire him.
Young had a horrible rookie year that led to the Panthers having the worst record in the NFL; the ensuing No. 1 overall pick was transferred to the Chicago Bears via the trade for Young. He improved in year two after returning from an early benching, but it’s yet to be seen if that’s sustainable.
Meanwhile, the Bears rebuilt their offense using the picks they got for Bryce Young, including 2024 first-overall pick Caleb Williams. In exchange for the top pick in 2023, Chicago received Carolina’s 2023 first-round pick (No. 9), 2023 second-round pick (No. 61), 2024 first-round pick (landed at No. 1), 2025 second-round pick (landed at No. 39), and wide receiver D.J. Moore.
So far, after multiple trade downs involving the picks acquired from Carolina, Chicago’s trade package has been converted to offensive tackle Darnell Wright, cornerback Tyrique Stevenson, punter Tory Taylor, Williams, and Moore. The Bears still have yet to use the 39th overall pick in the 2025 draft.
It’s way too early to talk about who won this deal or the real ramifications for both sides. But the Bears look to be early leaders here.
So, is it worth it?
Almost certainly not. Across seven of these trades in history, you can argue that the quarterback the team traded up for was better than the haul they gave up on just one occasion, the John Elway deal.
The only other deal that could potentially still hold up is the Eli Manning deal, but Manning was the lesser quarterback of the two involved in the deal. Would Rivers have won two Super Bowls with the Giants? It’s certainly possible, if not likely.
In any of these other deals, it was preferable to be the team getting the All-Pro talents in return and building a complete roster.
My advice to Darren Mougey and the Jets: Don’t give up a haul for a quarterback, especially not in a weak draft class like this one.
