Should the New York Jets trade up or trade down in the draft?
Should the New York Jets trade up or trade down in the NFL Draft?
There will be a variety of answers to that question reflected in mock drafts everywhere. What if the best answer is — both?
Here’s a Jets draft proposal that I think is both realistic and responsive to the Jets’ needs.
Top two needs
Despite having signed Mike Williams and Tyron Smith and traded for Morgan Moses, the Jets’ top two needs in the draft are likely offensive tackle and wide receiver. They don’t have either tackle or a No. 2 receiver under contract for 2025. Although this is an all-in season, since Williams and Smith have injury concerns, there is reason to target a viable 2024 replacement in this season’s draft.
The Jets currently have the No. 10 and No. 72 overall picks. If they want to fill tackle and receiver, getting a quality tackle will be much easier at No. 10, while there will likely still be solid receiver options available at No. 72.
Trade down to trade up
Many Jets fans have talked about trading down to recoup a second-round pick. According to the Jimmy Johnson trade chart, which NFL teams still seem to roughly follow despite its lack of statistical validity, the Jets would need to trade down six slots to gain the value of the No. 64 pick, the last pick of the second round.
That’s quite a steep price to pay. It may put them in the range of picking a project rather than a Year 1 starter. Most outlets have Joe Alt, Olu Fashanu, Taliese Fuaga, and J.C. Latham listed as the top four tackles in the draft; all four of them could be off the board by No. 16, even though NFL Mock Draft Database still has Latham (No. 18) available in their consensus mock draft (while Fuaga has no consensus).
The most likely tackle pick at No. 16 would be Troy Fautanu. Many prognosticators like Fautanu, but Joe Blewett is not among them. Perhaps it would be a somewhat better pick at No. 16 considering the hope that he appears in as few games as possible while learning behind Smith. Still, there are risks involved in taking Fautanu.
If Fautanu is also off the board, then the Jets would be looking at Amarius Mims or Tyler Guyton, two major projects who should not play in Year 1. Since the Jets’ swing tackle is likely to play in 2024, that’s a risky prospect.
Therefore, I think it’s more likely that the Jets would look to move back a few spots, perhaps three or four. Of course, there’s no guarantee that a team would trade up with them if J.J. McCarthy is off the board, which seems likely. Still, going back to 13 or 14 still leaves at least one of the top tackles on the board. Considering the lack of general enthusiasm for Latham, Blewett’s preferred target, he may well be still available at that spot.
Moving down from 10 to 13 would net the equivalent of the No. 88 overall pick on the Johnson chart, a third-rounder; going from 10 to 14 would bring back No. 78. The Jets would likely be looking at receiving a third-rounder in return.
Now, with No. 72 and another third-rounder somewhere around No. 80, the Jets would have enough ammunition to trade up again.
Why move up from there?
While there will likely still be good receivers available in the third round, the second round features more players who could develop into No. 2 targets. Ladd McConkey, Roman Wilson, Xavier Legette, Ricky Pearsall, and Ja’Lynn Polk are among the likely second-rounders who could fit what the Jets are looking for.
To move up from No. 72 to No. 48, the middle of the second round, the Jets would need to add the equivalent of the 80th pick — which is exactly the pick they should receive from moving down a few spots in the first round.
Not the only logical move
There are certainly other directions the Jets could choose. They could try to move down enough to recoup a second-rounder. They could trade up for Malik Nabers or even Marvin Harrison Jr. They could stay put and take a tackle or Brock Bowers.
But this is an intriguing option because it combines the best possibilities for tackle and receiver.
