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Trade partner for NY Jets? AFC team looking to move up

Joe Douglas
Joe Douglas, Getty Images

New York Jets have a potential trade-down partner

With just 15 days remaining until the big night, all eyes are on the 2024 NFL Draft.

As with every year, there is speculation on whether the New York Jets want to stay put or trade the pick. ESPN speculated last week that the Jets are looking to trade back in the draft.

The Jets currently have only two top-100 picks, sitting at 10th and 72nd. Across four drafts as the Jets’ general manager, Joe Douglas has made 13 total selections in the top 100, or about 3.3 per draft, so it’s reasonable to think he may attempt to acquire additional picks.

The good news for the Jets is the 10th overall pick has an established history of being traded. Over the past seven drafts, it was dealt five times: 2017, 2018, 2019, 2021, and 2023.

Finding a trade partner willing to give up premium picks may be more difficult this year as a top quarterback likely won’t be available at 10. The Jets were in this situation last year as they failed to find a trade partner for the 15th overall pick.

However, there are still some talented players whom a team could part with premium capital for. One team that is emerging as a possible partner is the Indianapolis Colts.

The Colts provide a potential trade partner for the Jets

The Colts – currently situated in the No. 15 slot – have been rumored as a potential trade-up team for months. Initially, it was speculated the Colts could move up for Washinton wide receiver Rome Odunze after they met at the combine.

However, recent reports indicate they have their eyes on another offensive player. A source close to Georgia told A to Z Sports that they are looking to trade up for tight end Brock Bowers.

Bowers is considered a generational prospect at tight end and would be an excellent addition to the Colts’ offensive core. The Colts met with Bowers at the combine and he is a common selection in mock drafts when he’s still available at their pick.

Bowers is currently the overwhelming favorite to be the Jets pick at tenth overall. Douglas will need to decide between Bowers and moving back five spots to add a Day 2 pick. So what would a potential Jets-Colts trade look like?

Potential Jets-Colt Trades

First, let’s take a look at past trades involving the 10th overall pick. We will then propose trade options using the Jimmy Johnson valuation model.

2018 provides an excellent example as the 10th and 15th picks were involved in the trade. The Cardinals traded the 15th, 79th, and 152nd picks to the Raiders for the 10th overall pick to select quarterback Josh Rosen. The Cardinals “won” the trade per the Johnson model as they gave up 1275.6 points (similar in value to the 11th overall pick) for 1300.

This trade wouldn’t be ideal for the Jets. They still wouldn’t have a second-round pick, and the combined value of both thirds (the Jets’ current 72nd pick plus the acquired 79th pick) is only equal to the 49th overall pick.

A trade from 2021 provides a more encouraging valuation of the 10th pick. Dallas traded the 10th pick to Philadelphia for the 12th and 84th picks. Per the Johnson model, the Cowboys won this trade, receiving 1370 points (similar to the 9th overall pick) while the 10th overall pick is worth 1300.

While the Cardinals-Raiders trade involves the same picks that would be swapped in a Jets-Colts deal, the Eagles-Cowboys trade provides a more likely point valuation for the Jets.

So what can the Jets do to add a second-round pick?

The most likely scenario is the Jets sending the 10th and 72nd overall picks (1530 points) to the Colts and receiving the 15th, 46th, and 117th picks (1550 points) in return. Essentially, the Jets would move down five spots in the first round to move up 26 spots from the early third round to the mid-second round, while also netting an extra fourth-round pick.

This would leave the Jets with the following draft picks:

  • 15th
  • 46th
  • 111th
  • 117th
  • 134th
  • 185th
  • 256th
  • 257th

Colts general manager Chris Ballard has never traded up in the first round before. However, the pressure is on with Anthony Richardson on his rookie contract. The Jets can capitalize on that and bolster their roster with an additional top-50 prospect.

With deep offensive tackle and wide receiver classes, Douglas’ best move at No. 10 might be to move back and acquire another top-50 pick. Indianapolis could be the trade partner Douglas is looking for.

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Walter Carbone
Walter Carbone
1 month ago

In a heartbeat