An NFL cap expert suggested that the New York Jets could trade their star RB
When Joe Douglas became the New York Jets’ general manager, some of his first in-season moves involved trading away overpriced veterans. His biggest coup was sending Jamal Adams to the Seattle Seahawks for two first-round picks and a third-rounder. He also jettisoned Leonard Williams to the Giants in lieu of giving the defensive tackle a big extension.
In the coming years, Douglas will face some harder decisions than those. With the haul from the 2022 draft, four of the Jets’ best players will be due contract extensions in 2025-26. It’s unlikely that the Jets will be able to keep Sauce Gardner, Garrett Wilson, Jermaine Johnson, and Breece Hall.
Now, one NFL analyst suggests the Jets could preempt the issue if the 2024 season goes south. Jason Fitzgerald of Over the Cap proposed that the Jets trade Breece Hall in the 2025 offseason. Here was his reasoning.
Is a bad team better off with say an extra 2 and 14m a year to spend or to have 14m on a position that likely declines by year 5 if not sooner?
— Jason_OTC (@Jason_OTC) June 13, 2024
Fitzgerald refers to the common calculus surrounding NFL running backs. Even the best backs in the league often begin declining in their late 20s, and by 30 they are dinosaurs. As elite as Hall is, he’ll be entering the final year of his contract in the 2025 offseason and he’ll want a new deal. Fitzgerald proposes trading Hall rather than overpaying him.
Would Douglas actually make such a move? Well, it depends.
Hall will be just 24 years old in the 2025 offseason. That means the Jets could give him a three-year contract and still take full advantage of his prime years. If he lives up to his potential in 2024, Hall will be a top-two back in the NFL. Considering that Douglas traded up in the second round of the draft to acquire Hall, it seems that he may value Hall significantly despite the lack of positional value.
That being said, Douglas has shown a notable reluctance to pay at other positions considered less important. He has consistently stayed at the low end of the linebacker and safety markets. Even after Adams forced his way out of New York, Douglas let Marcus Maye walk, as well. That would seem to indicate that Douglas could shy away from paying Hall big money.
Additionally, some analysts see the Jets’ selection of Braelon Allen as Douglas’ nod to the writing on the wall. If he’s not going to give Hall a big deal, perhaps he’ll trade him away while using Allen as a replacement. It’s worth noting that the Jets did not do this with Bryce Huff when they could have, but Hall’s situation may be somewhat different.
On the flip side, though, the Jets could follow the Saquon Barkley/Josh Jacobs model with Hall: let him ride out his contract and then apply the franchise tag. The first-time tag is roughly $12 million, which is easier to swallow on a one-year deal than a three-plus-year commitment at that price or higher. That would let the Jets take advantage of Hall’s best years and potentially pick up a compensatory pick to boot.
While no Jets fan wants to think about Hall’s departure, most savvy NFL teams do not spend heavily on the running back position. Hall’s future in New York is likely the most tenuous of the Jets’ four top picks in the 2022 draft.
