Extending far longer than the New York Jets’ infamous playoff drought is their division title drought. The Jets have not won the AFC East since 2002.
Few people expect that drought to end in 2026.
According to FanDuel Sportsbook, the Jets are +2000 to win the AFC East, the fourth-longest odds to win a division in the NFL.
What if that 20-to-1 scenario comes true, though? What would it take?
Of course, we could sit here and say that Josh Allen and Drake Maye would have to miss the entire season, but we’re going to avoid speculating about players’ health and focus on the pipe-dream scenario in which the Jets win the division without significant help from injuries.
So, here is everything that needs to happen for this miracle to occur.
Patriots’ luck pendulum swings the other direction
The Patriots may be coming off a 14-win season that culminated in a Super Bowl trip, but they are widely viewed as one of the NFL’s top regression candidates.
In 2025, the Patriots’ opponents had a .391 win percentage, giving them the third-easiest schedule in the NFL over the last 50 seasons. Most likely, things will balance out, leaving New England to go through a much tougher slate, especially now that they will be facing a first-place schedule instead of a last-place schedule.
New England also enjoyed great fortune in luck-based areas. Their 60% fumble recovery rate was fifth-best in the league, and their 82.6% opponent field goal percentage was 10th-lowest. Quarterback Drake Maye also got away with quite a few dangerous passes, tossing eight interceptions against 17 turnover-worthy throws.
It would be a stretch to say that the Patriots could suddenly be a bad football team, but there are many variables that could swing them from their 14-win ceiling to a 9 or 10-win floor. If the Jets want to win the AFC East, they will need New England to decline to wild card-level, leaving the door open for New York to win enough games to usurp both the Patriots and the Bills.
Bills’ defense caps them out at wild card-level
Barring injuries, it’s hard to imagine either the Bills or Patriots having a sub-.500 season. That’s why the Jets’ path to a division title would have to include both Buffalo and New England capping out at around 9-10 wins, leaving the door open for the Jets to win the title with at least 11 wins.
The Bills don’t have the same regression qualities as New England. Based on their +116 point differential, below-average luck (23rd-ranked fumble recovery rate, 7th-highest opponent field goal percentage), and the fact they employ Josh Allen, they seem poised to finish with a record similar to their 12-5 mark from a year ago.
What could ultimately do the Bills in, though, is their defense.
Buffalo is coming off a rough defensive season. While the surface-level metrics don’t look too shabby (12th in points allowed, 7th in total defense), the underlying metrics paint a more accurate picture. The Bills were just 20th in defensive DVOA, revealing their true defensive efficiency.
The organization made some free agent pickups to address this side of the ball, but each of those additions did not perform well in 2025.
Buffalo’s three primary additions on defense were edge rusher Bradley Chubb, safety Chauncey Gardner-Johnson, and cornerback Dee Alford. All three players had overall Pro Football Focus grades below 55.0 in the 2025 season, placing in the bottom half of their respective positions.
PFF grades aren’t gospel, but the string of poor 2025 metrics among Buffalo’s free-agent pickups isn’t a promising trend for an already underwhelming defense that is relying on these veterans to improve the unit. Add in the firing of head coach Sean McDermott, who established the infrastructure of Buffalo’s defensive dominance earlier in the decade, and this is a defense in real flux.
If the Bills’ defense declines even further from its No. 20 ranking, there could be a world where it drags the team down to 9 or 10 wins despite an elite offense. The Jets need that to happen for there to be a realistic window to steal the division.
So, how do the Jets get enough wins?
Now comes the most difficult part to envision: The Jets actually winning enough games to take advantage of Buffalo and New England stepping back.
Here’s what needs to happen for the Jets to reach 11 wins and claim the division.
Great defense, average offense, great luck
The Jets’ formula to first-place football is simple: field an excellent defense, play just well enough on offense to stay afloat, and pray for great luck.
To a lesser degree, the Jets could emulate last year’s Denver Broncos. New York doesn’t have quite enough talent to replicate Denver’s 14 wins, but they could use a similar model to reach 11 wins, which we are projecting to be enough to win the AFC East in this hypothetical scenario.
Denver did not truly play like a 14-win team in the 2025 regular season. Their +90 point differential was seventh-best in the NFL and fifth in their own conference. In fact, they played a league-high 13 games that were decided by one score.
But thanks to the blend of a dominant defense, a solid offense, and some good fortune, the Broncos went 11-2 in those close games. At least for one season, it was a sustainable formula. The offense, despite not being elite, was good enough to keep them in games until the end, and the defense would usually close out the win.
The Jets are built to copy that formula, with a lower ceiling. They probably don’t have the reinforcements to match Denver’s league-high 68 sacks or league-best 42.6% touchdown rate in the red zone, but in a best-case scenario, the Jets could be a top-eight defense.
How to field a great defense
Aaron Glenn has proven he can scheme up an elite defense, as he led the 2024 Lions to second-best in defensive DVOA despite an onslaught of injuries. After the Jets’ slew of defensive additions in the 2026 offseason, there are enough pieces in place for the Jets to have a formidable defense if the coaching is strong and certain things break their way.
Unlike the Bills, the Jets added a ton of defensive veterans who are coming off excellent seasons. T’Vondre Sweat (83.4), Minkah Fitzpatrick (81.9), Demario Davis (81.4), and David Onyemata (78.2) all earned great-to-elite overall grades from PFF. Again, that metric isn’t gospel, but it’s a promising trend. This looks like an influx of talent that will make a substantial difference.
Those players will join forces with solid returning pieces like Jowon Briggs (73.7 grade) and Harrison Phillips (72.6). Overall, the veterans in the front seven give this defense a fairly high floor.
What New York will need is for their young players to achieve higher-end outcomes. There is a lot of potential within this defense, but for the time being, it’s all potential. The lack of proven commodities is what causes it to be a unit that few people around the NFL trust entering 2026.
But players like Jamien Sherwood and Will McDonald have flashed high-level play in the past; the Jets just need them to get back to their peaks after falling off in 2025. They also have an uber-talented rookie in second-overall pick David Bailey, who could be a superstar as soon as this year in a best-case scenario.
Throw in more talented youngsters in the secondary like Azareye’h Thomas, D’Angelo Ponds, and Malachi Moore, and the upside is there. The Jets need more of these dart throws to hit than not if they want their defense to be great in 2026.
There’s a core of reliable veterans up the middle of this defense, from defensive tackle to linebacker to safety. Those pieces will give the Jets a respectable floor. To jump off that springboard into the elite ranks, the Jets need their young players on the perimeter to hit their ceilings. That includes the edge rushers (McDonald and Bailey) and the cornerbacks (Thomas and Ponds).
How to stay competent on offense
With Geno Smith at quarterback, Frank Reich at offensive coordinator, and no second star in the passing game (for now), the Jets have a firm ceiling on offense. It is difficult to envision a top 10 scenario.
But this group can certainly be close to average, and if that is coupled with a top-five defense, it could be enough to anchor an 11-plus win season if luck is on the Jets’ side (which we will discuss in the next section).
To be an average offensive team, the Jets must rely on two anchors: Ball security and red zone finishing.
New York doesn’t have the quarterback, innovative play-caller, or weapons to run teams off the field with bundles and bundles of explosive plays every week. But if they can play safe, efficient, methodical football, their offense can still be more effective than about half the league. They have the pieces to pull it off.
Geno Smith is capable of protecting the ball at a solid level. Back in 2023, he had only 12 turnovers (9 INT, 3 lost fumbles) in 15 starts.
While Smith’s interception total spiked to 17 in 2025, it was largely due to the worst luck in football, and it’s worth noting that he only lost one fumble. If his interception luck normalizes, or even swings to the lucky end, Smith could have a season with 10-12 turnovers in 17 games, potentially allowing the Jets to finish top-five in fewest turnovers depending on how well the skill-position players protect the ball.
The Jets are also loaded with weapons that could help them thrive in the red zone. From Mason Taylor’s 76.9% contested catch rate at tight end to Braelon Allen’s 250-pound frame in the backfield, New York has players who are built for red zone dominance. Garrett Wilson is also due for more opportunities, while rookie wideout Omar Cooper Jr. is a gifted playmaker who can be deployed in creative ways. Don’t forget about a quality offensive line that should make life easier in tight spaces.
With a limited passing game, the Jets probably won’t be getting to the red zone very often. But if they score touchdowns at a high clip when they do, they can become an average offensive team overall.
Will luck swing the Jets’ way?
Ultimately, the Jets are going to need a lot of luck if they want to win the division, no matter what they do within their control. That includes not just the Bills and Patriots’ fortunes, but also their own.
The fact of the matter is that the Jets do not have 11-win talent just yet, at least not on paper. That doesn’t mean they cannot win 11 games, though. Win totals do not always accurately convey the true performance level of a team.
The Chiefs (+34) had a better point differential than the Bears (+26) last year. Chicago won five more games (11 to 6).
That’s football.
And if the Jets want to win a division title, they need to land on the Bears’ side of the luck spectrum.
There are many areas where the Jets are due for better luck. We already mentioned Smith’s interceptions. In addition, the Jets are still waiting for fumbles to become a coin flip for them.
In 2025, the Jets recovered just 35.5% of all fumbles, ranking 31st in the league. They have recovered less than 50% of loose balls in seven of the past eight seasons, including bottom-three rankings in fumble recovery percentage in four of the past five seasons. This has got to pivot in the other direction at some point, right?
New York is also hoping that a last-place finish yields a favorable schedule. Based on Vegas win totals, the Jets are projected to have the league’s fifth-easiest schedule. Obviously, though, schedule difficulty is likely to look much different once the season plays out. But they are in a promising spot.
Wherever they get it from, the Jets need a hefty helping of luck to smash through their ceiling and win enough games to top the AFC East. Realistically speaking, their collective talent level probably gives them a ceiling around 8-9 wins, but with a little luck—a missed field goal here, a crazy fumble bounce there, a dropped interception over there—they could easily tack on 2-3 bonus wins that they didn’t necessarily “deserve”.
That’s the Jets’ formula to win the AFC East: Play great defense and average offense to perform at the level of a 9-win team, and hope that things bounce their way to push them up to 11 wins, with that being enough to win the division due to Buffalo and New England regressing to 10 wins or fewer.
Is it likely?
Nope.
Could it happen?
Yes.
Anything can happen in this league.
The Sam Darnold-led Seahawks just won the Super Bowl at +6000 preseason odds.
What’s stopping the Jets from simply winning their division with odds that are three times better?
Jets fans can likely think of a thousand answers to that question, and they’d all be valid. This team never manages to do the unthinkable.
But not long ago, the same could have been said about another long-starving sports team that plays just six miles southeast of MetLife Stadium.
Why not believe? At the very least, why not believe in June? This is the time for NFL fans to let their wildest dreams run rampant. Because even if disappointment arrives in the fall, there will be another chance to conjure optimistic visions about a 0-0 team at this time next year… and so the cycle continues.
Hope is what keeps us going, no matter how many times it leads to familiar disappointment.
The Jets could win the AFC East in 2026. It isn’t likely. But as shown by the path we laid out today, it sure isn’t impossible.
