Some of the media narratives about the New York Jets and Haason Reddick are short-sighted
Whenever one New York Jets drama ends, another one begins.
The latest example of that is Haason Reddick’s holdout from Jets training camp. It comes just as the Aaron Rodgers mandatory minicamp situation is starting to die down — maybe.
Reddick’s holdout is somewhat surprising. According to the Collective Bargaining Agreement, players who hold out of training camp are subject to a non-waivable $50,000-per-day fine. In light of that, the most common tactic for players disgruntled with their contracts is a hold-in: coming to practice but not participating. Jordan Love and Tua Tagovailoa are currently doing just that in search of new deals.
It’s understandable why Reddick would not want to practice. None of his 2024 salary is guaranteed. If he were to get injured during camp, the Jets could cut him with no salary cap ramifications. Still, staying away from camp altogether seems like an unwise move.
Given Reddick’s situation, the Jets are now taking a significant amount of heat in the media. The reasoning is fair: the Jets should have resolved Reddick’s contract before trading for him. That is General Manager 101, and Joe Douglas flunked it.
There are many somewhat conflicting reports about what actually went down between the Jets and Reddick. Originally, the report was that the Jets and Reddick had an understanding that he would play out the season on his current contract. However, more recently, reports indicate that Reddick declined the Jets’ contract offer before the trade. In that case, any supposed verbal agreement seems quite dubious.
Still, there are a few aspects of the situation that the media narratives neglect to address. Here’s what I believe the Jets were thinking when they traded for Reddick and why I think they will dig in their heels on the matter.
One-year timeline
Many people see the trade for Reddick as a forerunner of a long-term deal. However, that’s not how the Jets viewed it. They saw a player disgruntled with his current contract on a team looking to dump his salary. Once the Eagles signed Bryce Huff, they sought to unload Reddick’s cap drain.
Douglas saw an opportunity to acquire a player for below market value on a one-year contract. This is the exact same scenario that unfolded with Tyron Smith, Mike Williams, and Morgan Moses.
Yes, Reddick was unhappy with his contract, but Douglas felt he had the leverage in the situation. With Reddick under contract, as displeased as he is, he must play in 2024 to earn one last big contract. He can try all he wants to force the Jets to give it to him, but they don’t have to give him anything. If he doesn’t play, it’s unlikely any team will sign a 31-year-old to the kind of deal Reddick wants.
This is what Douglas and the Jets communicated with Reddick: if you want the big deal, you’ll need to earn it this season. It was not an unreasonable thought process. Douglas is willing to ride out the distraction of having Reddick not present. He’s that Reddick will ultimately realize he doesn’t have the leverage to force a big deal.
Had the Jets wanted to lock an edge rusher up long-term, they would have made a more concerted effort to re-sign Bryce Huff. They wanted a player on a short-term deal because they have Jermaine Johnson and Will McDonald as first-round picks at the position. In 2024, it makes sense to add another strong edge rusher to the mix for a one-year run. A long-term deal for a 30-year-old doesn’t fit the Jets’ timeline.
Michael Nania further explained why the Jets shouldn’t give Reddick an extension. Having him with contract-year motivation, letting him walk too early instead of too late, and getting a compensatory pick are all reasons to keep Reddick on a one-year deal. The Jets’ one-year timeline is the clincher.
Reddick’s market value
Reddick’s $15 million APY on his current contract is tied for 20th among edge rushers. For a player who has recorded at least 11 sacks in four consecutive seasons, he sees himself as worth far more than that. His likely comparison is Danielle Hunter, who signed a two-year, $49 million deal with the Texans and has $48 million guaranteed. Hunter is entering his age-30 season the same way Reddick is.
If it’s going to be all about the sacks, though, Hunter had 16.5 sacks in 2023 compared to Reddick’s 11. If sacks are all a team cares about, Reddick is already worth less than Hunter purely from that perspective.
However, the Jets of all teams seem to prioritize more than just sacks. As the YouTube channel A to Z Sports Film Room pointed out, the Jets seek defensive linemen who collapse the pocket regularly more so than those who take down the quarterback. While Reddick is clearly a sack artist, he does not bring pressure quite as consistently as some of the elite edge rushers in the NFL.
Reddick’s 12% pressure rate in 2023 ranked 30th out of 72 qualified edge rushers (min. 275 pass rush snaps). That’s a 58th-percentile ranking, which is far below what Reddick’s reputation would have you believe.
In his four seasons when he played at least 400 pass rush snaps, Reddick’s pressure rates are 13.6%, 10%, 15.2%, and 12%, which means he was below average in this area in one season, average in one year, above average in one year, and well above average in the fourth. And even his top season — his 15.2% pressure rate — would have ranked 15th in the NFL last season.
Don’t get me wrong. Reddick is a very good player. An average player doesn’t get 11 sacks in four straight seasons and force more fumbles than anyone else in the league over that time. But his tape against Tyron Smith exemplifies why he’s not as good as people think. Smith stonewalled him in both games. You pay elite edge rushers to play at that level even against the best of the best. He’s not a Nick Bosa, Myles Garrett, T.J. Watt, or Micah Parsons.
Is that a player worth $25 million per season, especially at age 30?
Arguably, the Jets made precisely the opposite point by trading for Reddick and letting Huff go. Huff is one of the premier pressure artists in the NFL (second in the league in pressure rate in 2023) but doesn’t necessarily convert his pressures into sacks at a top level. Still, I believe Huff ultimately never gave the Jets a chance because he wanted more playing time, which New York was not going to give him. The Jets sought the next-best option in Reddick on a one-year timeline.
Reddick thinks he deserves top-of-the-market value. The Jets don’t. They got him precisely because his contract was reasonable for his production.
Reddick’s role
When the Jets traded for Reddick, they also had John Franklin-Myers. It’s possible Reddick thought he didn’t have much leverage to hold out because he was not a clear-cut starter in the Jets’ rotational system. Once the team traded Franklin-Myers, Reddick felt he had more leverage as an obvious starter.
However, what many in the media miss is that even with Franklin-Myers gone, Reddick’s workload will be a lot lower than it was with the Eagles. Reddick played 74% of the Eagles’ defensive snaps in each of the last two seasons. In 2023, the Jets’ edge rusher with the highest snap percentage, Jermaine Johnson, was at 66%. It’s conceivable that Reddick could be lower than that; in 2022, starting edge rusher Carl Lawson saw just 58% of the Jets’ snaps.
That’s why one condition on the third-round pick the Jets sent to the Eagles for Reddick was playing at least 67.5% of the snaps. There’s little chance Reddick will hit that number given the Jets’ rotation. It’s easy to say, “Who else do they have besides Johnson?” However, remember that they have first-round pick Will McDonald poised to take over Huff’s role. Huff played 42% of the snaps in 2023, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see McDonald at roughly that amount.
It looks bad
Yes, Douglas looks like an idiot in the media right now. On the surface, the Jets’ move to trade for Reddick without working out his contract seems boneheaded at best. However, if you look at the factors mentioned above, the move made more sense than it appears.
Of course, Reddick could choose to sit out during the regular season, but that would be cutting off his nose to spite his face. Le’Veon Bell may have gotten a big deal after sitting out a year, but that in and of itself is a cautionary tale for any team with a player who took a year off. Bell was also 27 at the time, while Reddick will be entering his age-31 season next year when he hits free agency. The chances he’ll get the deal he seeks after sitting out during the season are very slim.
As ESPN’s Rich Cimini pointed out, the likely ultimate solution here is that the Jets will add some sweeteners to his deal. That’s probably what Douglas offered Reddick in the first place, which he didn’t accept at the time. Perhaps Douglas will guarantee more of his deal to give him an incentive to practice. Or maybe not — maybe he’ll just wait it out knowing that Reddick needs to blink first.
I’m surprised Reddick is holding out rather than holding in. His agent has a history of players holding in but not holding out. This is usually NFL players’ preferred way of expressing displeasure without getting fined.
However, I’m not all that perturbed by the situation. It’s frustrating, certainly, especially for a Jets team that could stand to have less negative press. But I still believe Reddick will be in uniform and ready to go come Week 1. And just as Nick Bosa missed all of training camp in 2023 only to post another top-tier season, I’m not too concerned about a lag due to Reddick missing camp. He has every incentive to keep himself in top shape and perform at a high level in 2024.
As I wrote before camp started, this whole drama is just not that important. At worst, it gives Will McDonald more first-team reps in camp.
Jets fans, R-E-L-A-X.
