Perhaps Allen Lazard isn’t a lost cause for the New York Jets
There were many juicy tidbits in Robby Sabo’s comprehensive report from the second day of New York Jets training camp. None popped out to me more than Sabo’s praise of Allen Lazard.
According to Sabo, Lazard has “enjoyed a tremendous two days of camp so far.” Most notably, each of the first two practices ended on a Lazard touchdown in red zone drills. Sabo observed that Lazard “is clearly benefiting from the familiarity with his old Green Bay Packers teammate.”
Most Jets fans have completely written Lazard off. I wouldn’t necessarily exclude myself from that faction. Lazard’s performance in 2023 was nothing shy of hideous. After a performance like that, it’s difficult to trust him in any capacity, regardless of what he may have done with Aaron Rodgers prior to 2023.
While Lazard still has a long way to go on the road to making Jets fans forget about 2023, his strong start to training camp is a reminder that he proved himself to be a useful NFL wide receiver during his five seasons with Rodgers. This is not to say that Lazard is suddenly poised for a massive year in 2024 or even that he will justify his four-year, $44 million contract. All it does is remind us that there is a chance Lazard can still be a minor contributor to helping this team win.
With Lazard picking up steam in camp, now is a great time to revisit some of the things he did well during his run with Rodgers in Green Bay. The goal for New York is to find a small role for Lazard that allows him to thrive in these areas. If the Jets give him the right role and Lazard is locked in mentally, perhaps he will not be a complete waste of a roster spot this year.
Here are some of the strengths that Lazard can provide when he’s at his best.
Efficiency in a supporting role
The less Lazard is used, the better he gets. This is what makes him appealing as a WR4/WR5 with Aaron Rodgers in 2024.
Lazard saw a low target volume over his first three years in Green Bay’s lineup, but he made the most of the chances he got. In 2022, Lazard rose to No. 1 on the Packers in targets, and his efficiency fell off a cliff. The following year, Lazard was the Jets’ WR2 in terms of targets, and his efficiency continued plummeting.
Compare Lazard’s efficiency from 2019-21 (smaller roles) to his efficiency from 2022-23 (larger roles):
2019-21 (41 games):
- 40.6 snaps per game
- 158 targets (3.9 per game)
- 108 receptions
- 1,441 yards
- 14 TD
- 0 INT thrown when targeted
- 68.4% catch rate
- 9.1 yards per target
- 8.9% TD rate
- 126.6 passer rating when targeted
- 51.9% contested catch rate (14 of 27)
2022-23 (29 games):
- 53.4 snaps per game
- 149 targets (5.1 per game)
- 83 receptions
- 1,099 yards
- 7 TD
- 6 INT thrown when targeted
- 55.7% catch rate
- 7.4 yards per target
- 4.7% TD rate
- 78.1 passer rating when targeted
- 32.5% contested catch rate (13 of 40)
Lazard is not cut out to be one of his team’s primary targets. But if you only target him sporadically, he can be quite efficient. The key is to focus on deploying him in situations that suit his skill set.
Red zone presence
Across the four-year span from 2019-22, Lazard secured 15 red zone touchdowns, which ranked 17th among wide receivers. That’s an average of nearly four red zone touchdowns per year.
Lazard did not need to be a major part of the offense to pull this off. He only had 258 targets over that span, which means nearly six percent of his overall targets were red zone touchdowns (15 of 258). If he maintains that rate, Lazard would score two red zone touchdowns even if the Jets gave him just 34 targets this year (two targets per game). That would be an efficient output from one of your backup wide receivers.
ALLEN LAZARD WITH HIS 4TH TD IN THE LAST 5 GAMES🔥
pic.twitter.com/rcfIyKClGf— PFF Fantasy & Betting (@PFF_Fantasy) January 9, 2022
Good deep threat in moderation
Similar to his overall production, Lazard is an efficient deep threat when he is only targeted occasionally, but he struggles when given more chances.
Here is a comparison of Lazard’s production on deep throws (20+ yards downfield):
2019-21 (41 games):
- 32 targets (0.8 per game)
- 14 receptions
- 515 yards
- 3 TD
- 0 INT thrown when targeted
- 43.8% catch rate
- 16.1 yards per target
- 15.6% TD rate
- 130.2 passer rating when targeted
2022-23 (29 games):
- 36 targets (1.2 per game)
- 11 receptions
- 331 yards
- 3 TD
- 3 INT thrown when targeted
- 30.6% catch rate
- 9.2 yards per target
- 8.3% TD rate
- 58.9 passer QB rating when targeted
From 2019-21, Lazard was seeing less than one deep target per game, and he responded by delivering a 130.2 passer rating when targeted. Over the next two years, he saw a 50% bump in deep targets per game (0.8 to 1.2), and his passer rating when targeted was sliced to less than half.
Going into 2024, the Jets’ goal should be to give Lazard maybe one deep shot every two games and hope he can deliver a similar level of efficiency. If he can finish the year snagging something like 4-of-8 deep targets, that’s a victory for New York.
35 days till kickoff. Rodgers hits Lazard (WR1) on an absolute dime for a 35 yard TD. (October 14, 2019) pic.twitter.com/xUPHHH4MIs
— 🧀🧀 (@OGpackersFan) August 7, 2022
Slant routes
Rather than deep balls or red zone fades, the slant route was the most common way Lazard utilized his 6-foot-5 frame in Green Bay. Lazard was pretty solid at getting over the middle of the field on quick breaks and using his body to shield defenders off.
Rodgers 🏈 Lazard
Touchdown pic.twitter.com/TIX4xVLZo9
— Empacotadores 🧀 (@Empacotadores) September 25, 2022
Jets X-Factor’s Rivka Boord noted this in a breakdown about Lazard earlier this offseason:
“From 2019-22, Lazard ran the highest rate of slant routes (12.8%) among 61 receivers who ran at least 1,200 routes. He caught 26 of 35 slants (74.3%) for 326 yards, 3 touchdowns, no interceptions, a 131.4 targeted passer rating, and a 7% catch rate over expected.”
The Jets can maximize Lazard’s slant prowess on third-and-short or near the goal line. Considering that Lazard is a decent blocker (when he tries), he can also be useful in these situations if the Jets call a running play. For these two reasons, it makes a lot of sense for the Jets to build Lazard’s role around third-and-short and goal-line situations.
Overall expectations
Lazard’s job is to be an efficient complementary weapon in a small role.
Barring injury, Lazard’s involvement will likely be minimal. The Jets have Garrett Wilson, Mike Williams, Breece Hall, and Tyler Conklin to eat up the majority of the targets; you could even argue Xavier Gipson and Malachi Corley will be more involved than him. But if Lazard can just make the most of his rare opportunities, he can be a useful situational player.
The concern with Lazard is that he is not someone you can trust to step up into a large role if injuries strike. Behind Wilson and Williams, the Jets lack a backup wide receiver who can be trusted to provide competent play at the minimum if they are forced into the spotlight. Gipson, Corley, and Lazard are all high-ceiling/low-floor players.
The good news is that Lazard has already shown across three years with Rodgers that he can be very efficient in a smaller, specified role. If the Jets’ wide receiver unit stays healthy, Lazard projects as a great fit in the supporting role he will likely be asked to play.
