The New York Jets’ 2024 regular season opener is rapidly approaching — which means fantasy football drafts are on the way, too. With NFL training camps and preseason providing a measure of clarity about various players’ roles, now may be the chance to uncover the next Puka Nacua. (In fact, for those fans who paid attention last year, the Nacua buzz coming out of Rams camp was sky-high.)
Of course, getting lucky with a rookie off people’s radars can help win a league. However, the information is out there on most other NFL players, and the question is just how to interpret and value those players. Average draft position (ADP) gives you a good idea about the consensus about specific players among fantasy owners. What it doesn’t tell you, though, is how wise that valuation is.
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Here are several players about whom you should exercise caution before drafting them at their ADP.
QB Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs
Patrick Mahomes’ ADP is No. 27 overall in PPR leagues, and he’s as high as No. 23 in ESPN PPR leagues. Don’t take the bait. Mahomes is slated to have a better season than last year, but I just don’t see him as the QB2. Take Jalen Hurts and Lamar Jackson over him (besides Josh Allen, the QB1), and even players like Jayden Daniels and Anthony Richardson are higher-risk, higher-reward options in later rounds.
I understand the faith in a Mahomes rebound, but I’m just not willing to take him in the second round.
QB C.J. Stroud, Texans
Quarterbacks without rushing upside generally need MVP-level statistics to be top fantasy quarterbacks. Stroud had just 39 rush attempts in 2023. Despite his Offensive Rookie of the Year season, he threw just 23 touchdowns in 15 starts.
Stroud coming in as QB5 with an ADP of 50 is way too high. In general, I’m a fan of drafting quarterbacks later, but Stroud in particular has some serious downside, even with the Texans’ excellent supporting cast. It’s also worth noting that the Texans face a much more difficult schedule than in 2023.
RB Tony Pollard, Titans
For some reason, Pro Football Focus’ mock draft simulator loves Tony Pollard. I can’t figure out why when he’s listed as a co-RB1 with Tyjae Spears. Pollard is coming off a disappointing season behind the Cowboys’ cushy offensive line, and he’s now going to a platoon situation behind an offensive line with a rookie left tackle, a second-year left guard, and major question marks at right guard and right tackle.
Pollard is listed as RB26 with an ADP of 78, while Spears is No. 35 with an ADP of 101. If I had to pick either one, I’m going with Spears, to be honest.
RB Jahmyr Gibbs, Lions
This is not a knock on Jahmyr Gibbs as a player but a recognition that as long as David Montgomery is in the same backfield, Gibbs likely will not reach the volume required to be worthwhile at his ADP. Gibbs is listed as RB6 with an ADP of 12, but Montgomery still might take a good chunk of the goal-line targets.
A back listed after Gibbs like Isiah Pacheco (RB10/ADP 20) is a better option because he’s the clear-cut RB1 in his backfield and doesn’t even have a third-down receiving back behind him anymore.
RB De’Von Achane, Dolphins
This is not a slam dunk, as De’Von Achane could end up an elite fantasy option in the Dolphins’ high-flying offense. The problem is that he faces extraordinary competition behind a lesser offensive line and is still injury-prone. Achane’s ADP of 23 is a little too high for my blood. Raheem Mostert will likely take the goal-line touches. The Dolphins are also unlikely to drop 70 points on anyone this year.
With rookie Jaylen Wright also in the room, Achane could face a dreaded committee, and it’s unlikely he’ll be able to replicate last season’s obscene efficiency. At 5-foot-9 and 187 pounds, Achane may simply be too small to handle a full-time workload.
If you’re going to take Achane in the second round, make sure you have other reliable running back options.
RB Devin Singletary, Giants
Devin Singletary was a bad fantasy option with the Texans for large parts of last season. Now he goes to the Giants and suddenly he’s a better option?
Sure, the Giants’ offensive line might be better than in years past, but several of their linemen are far better pass-blockers than run-blockers (see: left guard John Runyan, right tackle Jermaine Eluemunor). Furthermore, Singletary’s 4.2 yards per carry in 2023 were a career-low, which is a concerning sign for a running back entering his age-27 season.
Singletary’s ADP is 88 (RB31), which makes sense for him as a clear-cut No. 1 back on the depth chart, but some early struggles could give rookie Tyrone Tracy a lot more run. Make sure Singletary isn’t among your regular starters at running back, and it might be more worthwhile to draft a rookie handcuff in the later rounds (including Tracy) rather than taking Singletary.
WR Stefon Diggs, Texans
Stefon Diggs was a zero in the second half of last season, even as the Bills’ WR1. He now joins a Texans lineup where he’ll compete with Nico Collins, Tank Dell, Dalton Schultz, and Joe Mixon for targets. His ADP of 39 (WR19) is way too high. Every player in this lineup besides Collins is somewhat risky because of the way C.J. Stroud spreads the ball around, but Diggs could legitimately end up the fourth or fifth target in this offense.
WR Deebo Samuel, 49ers
Deebo Samuel will always be a threat in the 49ers’ offense, and that will seemingly increase if Brandon Aiyuk is traded.
However, it’s worth noting that Aiyuk clears a lot of the short to intermediate room to work with because of his big-play ability deep. Samuel is also a significant injury concern, and his 12 touchdowns from 2023 may be due for some regression, as his expected finish was WR26. Couple that with the difficult schedule he faces, and his ADP of 35 (WR17) is likely risky.
TE Dalton Kincaid, Bills
Dalton Kincaid’s listing as TE5 and ADP of 50 overall is way too high. Sure, he could become Josh Allen’s No. 1 target, but as long as Dawson Knox is in Buffalo, there’s significant risk of overvaluing Kincaid. Most of Kincaid’s fantasy production last year came when Knox was out of the lineup.
Even with a pedestrian receiver group, players like Curtis Samuel, Keon Coleman, and even James Cook could render Kincaid far less valuable than he seems. George Kittle (ADP 58), Kyle Pitts (61), Evan Engram (67), and Jake Ferguson (84) are all safer picks.
