The New York Jets’ stalemate with Haason Reddick has two clear mouthpieces. From one source comes the team’s stance: Reddick is a luxury, not a necessity. From the other comes the agent’s claim that Reddick said from the outset he would not play without a new contract.
Regardless of who’s right or wrong, it seems increasingly likely that Reddick will not suit up in Week 1. It’s virtually impossible to say that the Jets will be totally fine without him. At worst, he’s a proven above-average pass rusher, which applies to none of his potential replacements. Reddick is likely banking on the Jets’ pass rush suffering extensively without him, forcing Joe Douglas to cave to his demands.
If the Jets follow one blueprint, though, they have a chance of at least approaching Reddick’s production. The question is if they’re willing to do so.
Current battles
From training camp, Micheal Clemons seems like Reddick’s replacement, at least in the base defense. It is hard to overstate how big of a mistake that would be.
As Michael Nania detailed, Clemons is a mediocre, unathletic run defender and one of the worst pass rushers in the NFL. His play in the preseason has exemplified the severe downsides of having him on the field. Clemons’ 66.3 Pro Football Focus run defense grade in 2023 ranked 35th out of 73 edge defenders with at least 175 run defense snaps, confirming the mediocre label.
Nania further explained that trying to play Clemons in exclusive run situations still caused him to face pass plays on 43% of his snaps. Imagine if the Jets also do that with defensive tackle Leki Fotu.
Fotu is more athletic than Clemons for his position and size, but he’s moved around way too easily in the run game and also brings zero as a pass rusher. His 40.7 PFF run defense grade in 2023 ranked 91st out of 103 qualified defensive tackles (min. 150 run defense snaps). His 5.2% pressure rate ranked 91st out of 127 qualifiers (min. 125 pass rush snaps).
The Jets will likely try to get Clemons and Fotu on the field together in supposedly obvious run situations. That means they’ll have zero pass rush from two of their four defensive linemen. It would behoove any quarterback to audible to a pass play in those situations, especially if Quinnen Williams is also off the field.
Therefore, in Week 1 against the 49ers, the Jets should sacrifice Clemons’ size for Will McDonald’s and Takk McKinley’s athleticism, even on first and second down. If they want a more prototypical run defender on the edge, Braiden McGregor (6-foot-6, 267 pounds) may still be a preferable option to Clemons. Watch McGregor undermine a reverse in the Panthers preseason game.
This is phenomenal awareness from a rookie. Clemons, by contrast, bites hard misdirection or option plays regularly, and he lacks any change-of-direction ability to make up for his mistakes. A player like Clemons must rely on awareness in the run game, which he simply lacks. It often completely nullifies his strength.
As far as pass rush, it’s virtually impossible for McGregor to be less effective than Clemons. In 2023 at Michigan, McGregor posted an 11.7% pressure rate, ranking 69th out of 182 qualified FBS edge rushers (62nd percentile, min. 235 pass rush snaps). It remains to be seen whether he can translate that to the NFL, but the early returns in the preseason are promising. McGregor’s 24.1% pass rush win rate in the preseason ranks 6th out of 113 edge rushers with at least 20 pass rush snaps, and he’s posted a 12.5% pressure rate.
It’s a tiny sample size garnered against backups, but why not go for the rookie with upside rather than the 27-year-old third-year player who has shown nothing?
McDonald
Jets fans have been largely alarmed by the Will McDonald narrative coming out of training camp. That he still weighs 236 pounds after stating he wanted to get up to 250 is somewhat ominous. Still, Robert Saleh and Jeff Ulbrich have praised his improved strength.
The reason McDonald has taken second-team reps in training camp behind Clemons is his supposed inability to hold up in the run game. The Jets did the same thing with Bryce Huff last year: they used him exclusively in obvious pass-rushing situations. Among 80 edge rushers with at least 425 defensive snaps, Huff ranked 76th with just 26.9% of his snaps coming on run plays.
Strangely, McDonald played the run a lot more at 44.8% of his 183 snaps, which would have been the fifth-highest had he qualified. Many of those reps likely came when the Jets were down big, though. The team clearly intends for McDonald to take over the Huff role.
If Reddick is out, though, that should shift their plans for McDonald. Even if he’s a liability in the run game, the downswing from McDonald to Clemons as pass rushers is so sharp that the Jets should make that sacrifice.
Saleh and Ulbrich can be stubborn, as they refused to increase Huff’s snap count despite his otherworldly pass-rushing efficiency. They may have been right, though. Nania pointed out that in the six games where Huff played more than 10 run defense snaps, his pressure rate dropped from 27.4% to 11.4%. In other words, when he had to account for the run, his pass rush was merely average.
Perhaps that will be the case with McDonald. The small sample size makes it impossible to draw any conclusions. McDonald also isn’t nearly the pass rusher Huff is, at least right now. But the more important point is how McDonald’s overall performance would compare to Reddick’s, not to Huff’s.
The Jets were planning on playing Reddick in their base defense. Reddick and McDonald are similarly sized (240 pounds vs. 236), though McDonald is lankier. Reddick had a 64.0 PFF run defense grade in 2023, ranking 40th out of 73 qualifiers. He’s been below 60.0 in four of the six seasons in which he had at least 200 run defense snaps. In general, those numbers match his reputation as a below-average run defender.
McDonald, meanwhile, posted a 63.2 PFF run defense grade in 2023 on just 82 snaps. That gives very little information. His grades are far worse this preseason (46.0 on 14 snaps), but Clemons isn’t much better (53.8 on 16 snaps). The film doesn’t necessarily support those grades, so take them with a grain of salt.
I think Reddick is a better run defender than McDonald when watching their film. Reddick reads plays better and is quicker to spin off a blocker when the direction of the play warrants it. He also doesn’t end up on the ground as much as McDonald. However, on a play-by-play basis, I don’t believe the difference is that vast.
Compare these reels of noteworthy plays against the run (both positive and negative) from Reddick and McDonald.
Why are the Jets willing to use Reddick in base but not McDonald?
From a pass rush perspective, there’s no way to argue anyone other than McDonald should take Reddick’s reps. So far, between two preseasons and one regular season, McDonald has 20 pressures on 160 pass rush snaps. That is a 12.5% pressure rate; the league average for edge rushers in 2023 was 11.6%. Reddick’s pressure rate last year was 12.0%.
Furthermore, Reddick had 11 sacks on 557 pass rush snaps last year (2.0%). McDonald has 5 sacks on 160 career snaps (3.1%). McDonald showed that same ability in college, posting 34 sacks on 862 pass rush snaps (3.9%). This was despite playing snaps at 4i-technique (over the tackle’s inside shoulder), normally a spot for an interior defensive lineman. Despite the small sample size, McDonald has a knack for bringing down the quarterback.
McDonald also came into the league with a tendency to force fumbles, as he had 11 of them in college. Reddick has 17 career forced fumbles. The bigger question with McDonald is consistency, but Reddick has the same issue at times. From 2020-23, Reddick had 50.5 sacks (2.7% sack rate), but his 12.7% pressure rate was only slightly above average.
Obviously, this is an apples-to-oranges comparison due to the difference in sample size. Still, the Jets keep saying they trust McDonald as a pass rusher. Why would they give that up for a marginal difference in run defense, especially with Clemons underperforming?
If the Jets won’t start McDonald, then they should start Takk McKinley over Clemons. McKinley’s career run defense grades are very similar to Reddick’s, although he was asked to do it less. In seasons where he had at least 100 run defense snaps, McKinley posted grades of 63.0, 57.9, and 61.9. How is that meaningfully worse than Clemons for a player whose career pressure rate is 11.8% — more than double Clemons’?
The only way the Jets can call Reddick nonessential is if McDonald starts and generates consistent pressure. Perhaps they can rotate McDonald and McKinley and hope for a similar outcome. The run defense is secondary at this point since none of the players involved — Reddick, McDonald, McKinley, or Clemons — are good run defenders. We already know Clemons is a zero as a pass rusher.
Yes, this is an issue against the 49ers with Christian McCaffrey in the backfield. But it will be an issue no matter who they put there. They have only one Jermaine Johnson. They replaced John Franklin-Myers with Reddick, and that decision heavily favored pass rush over run defense. Whether Reddick is there or not, they’ll reap what they sowed.
In pass-rushing situations, though, the Jets have a juicy opportunity at the left edge spot (which is where Reddick usually plays, opposite the right tackle) against San Francisco. The 49ers’ iron man at left tackle, Trent Williams, will be hard to beat. However, their right tackle, Colton McKivitz, is a sieve.
McKivitz’s 8.2% pressure rate in 2023 ranked 63rd out of 78 qualified tackles. His 1.21% adjusted sack rate ranked 71st. In fact, 25.3% of Brock Purdy’s pressure last season came from the right tackle spot. That was the highest among the 49ers’ five offensive line spots and ranked the eighth-highest among 32 qualified quarterbacks. That means whoever lines up over McKivitz should be able to make an impact.
For the Jets, that could kill two birds with one stone: show Reddick that he is, indeed, a bonus and simultaneously help them win the game. Perhaps you can argue that the Jets should put Johnson over McKivitz to give him an easier matchup, but I think the Jets will want him against Williams for run-game purposes.
The only way for them to hold firm if Reddick holds out into Week 1 is to show they don’t need him. The only way to do that is to play their best pass rusher(s).
(As an aside, the 49ers will have the same issue: they have Maliek Collins [45.6 run defense grade], Javon Hargrave [49.0], and Leonard Floyd [56.1] as three of their four defensive linemen. Nick Bosa [81.9] can’t play four positions at once. Breece Hall is arguably the second-best back in the NFL behind McCaffrey. Tyron Smith is a top-five left tackle. It should be an interesting matchup.)
Obviously, the Jets are merely spreading propaganda when they say Reddick is a luxury. They’re trying to reinforce their leverage against him. This deadlock seems destined to continue into the regular season. But the Jets could help their position in a big way if their pass rush produces in Week 1 sans Reddick — and that likely means starting McDonald.
