With the preseason behind them, the New York Jets’ attention has fully turned to their Week 1 opponent, the San Francisco 49ers.
Just two Mondays away from their season-opening clash with New York, the 49ers are facing the possibility of starting the season without two of their best players: left tackle Trent Williams and wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk.
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Aiyuk’s situation has been well-documented over the past few months. After unsuccessful contract negotiations with the team, the 2023 second-team All-Pro requested a trade on July 16. No deal has transpired yet, but Aiyuk still has not reported to the team.
Now, Williams has given San Francisco another headache to deal with.
Williams has been holding out in search of a new contract and there is no end in sight. ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler reported on Monday morning that Williams plans to continue his holdout until his contract is reworked. Fowler says the star left tackle “is not overly stressed to have to be out there right now,” and his holdout “could bleed into the regular season.”
With preseason over, Trent Williams plans to continue his holdout unless his contract is reworked, placing Week 1 availability for #49ers into focus.
(With @CrisAlexESPN) pic.twitter.com/ETPlNOAN3n
— Jeremy Fowler (@JFowlerESPN) August 26, 2024
A first-team All-Pro in each of the last three seasons, Williams’s presence has been incredibly important to the 49ers’ success. Since he joined the team in 2020, the 49ers are 3-6 in games he’s missed, compared to 38-20 in games he’s played.
San Francisco went 0-2 without Williams in 2023. The 49ers scored just 17 points in each of their two games without Williams, while they averaged 30.5 points in the 15 games he played.
Starting quarterback Brock Purdy threw two interceptions in each of the two games Williams missed last season. Purdy only has one multi-interception game in 19 career regular season starts with Williams on the field.
Aiyuk’s impact is harder to measure as he’s only missed one game over the past three seasons (a 30-12 win over the lowly Giants last season). Nonetheless, it goes without saying that San Francisco would miss a player who racked up 75 receptions for 1,342 yards and 7 touchdowns last season.
Most importantly, the 49ers would miss Aiyuk’s ability to beat man coverage. Aiyuk is the only wide receiver on the team who has proven he can win on an island.
In 2023, Aiyuk ranked seventh among wide receivers with 429 receiving yards against man coverage (per Next Gen Stats), far more than every other 49ers wide receiver combined (261). Deebo Samuel particularly struggled in this area last year, catching 8-of-19 targets for 78 yards against man coverage.
Against a Jets cornerback trio that is arguably the NFL’s best, San Francisco’s wide receiver unit would be outmatched in man-coverage situations. The Jets deploy most of their man-coverage looks on third down, so it’s in that particular situation where the 49ers would run into a lot of trouble without Aiyuk. If they also don’t have their star left tackle to protect Purdy’s blindside, the Jets defense will be in a highly advantageous position on third downs.
The key for New York would be to stop the early-down run game so they can get to those favorable third downs. With Christian McCaffrey in the backfield and Kyle Shanahan calling plays, the 49ers’ run game will be dangerous no matter what, but it becomes significantly less threatening without Williams. McCaffrey averaged 3.7 yards per carry in two games without Williams last season versus 5.6 in 14 games with Williams paving the way.
In addition to Aiyuk and Williams, the 49ers could be without another former All-Pro: safety Talanoa Hufanga. The 2022 first-team All-Pro tore his ACL in Week 11 of the 2023 season and is yet to return to practice. Head coach Kyle Shanahan said the team will make a decision on whether to place him on injured reserve to begin the season.
The 49ers will also be without linebacker Dre Greenlaw, who started all 30 of his games for San Francisco over the past two seasons. Greenlaw ruptured his Achilles in the Super Bowl and is aiming for a mid-season return.
The Jets are dealing with the potential absence of their own former All-Pro, edge rusher Haason Reddick. While the loss of Reddick would surely hurt New York, Aiyuk and Williams are each far more valuable to San Francisco than Reddick is to New York. If the 49ers are without both players, the Jets will have a golden opportunity to steal a season-opening road win against the defending NFC champions on national television.