The San Francisco 49ers are among the few NFL teams who possess a similar amount of on-paper talent to the New York Jets. There will not be many areas where the Jets hold a noticeable advantage next Monday night.
However, there is one particular area where the Jets are poised to hold a major advantage: Their defensive line against the 49ers’ offensive line.
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As of today, star 49ers left tackle Trent Williams remains in a holdout. There is still time for him to return before September 9, but the clock is ticking fast.
Without Williams, the 49ers have been a shell of themselves. Since 2020, San Francisco is 38-20 with Williams on the field and 3-6 when he is absent.
In 2023, two of the 49ers’ main offensive stars played much worse when Williams was off the field. 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy threw 4 interceptions in two games without Williams, compared to 7 in 14 games with Williams. 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey averaged 3.7 yards per carry in two games without Williams compared to 5.6 in 14 games with Williams.
If Williams sits, the 49ers’ offensive line will be highly exploitable for the Jets’ talented defensive line.
Here is the 49ers’ likely starting offensive line in the event Williams sits:
- LT Jaylon Moore
- LG Aaron Banks
- C Jake Brendel
- RG Dominick Puni
- RT Colton McKivitz
New York will have a chance to feast on this unit, making life miserable for Purdy and McCaffrey.
If Williams suits up, things will be much different. His presence alone would elevate the entire unit, therefore elevating the entire offense.
With that being said, even if Williams plays, the rest of San Francisco’s offensive line is still shaky. Outside of Williams, the other four spots are questionable at best.
Whether Williams plays or not, this is a matchup the Jets must take advantage of. Let’s break down each spot on the offensive line and discuss how the Jets can exploit them.
Left tackle
If he sits, Williams’ replacement at left tackle will likely be Jaylon Moore.
San Francisco chose Moore out of Western Michigan in the fifth round of the 2021 draft. He’s spent three seasons as a trusted backup tackle, playing in 40 games with 7 starts. Most of his experience has come at left tackle; 500 snaps at left tackle and 55 snaps at right tackle.
Moore played 226 offensive snaps in relief of Williams last season. He only started 2 games, but Moore received significant playing time in multiple other games where Williams exited.
In pass protection, Moore was not catastrophic, but he was a large downgrade compared to Williams. According to Pro Football Focus, Moore allowed 8 pressures on 121 pass-blocking snaps, giving him an allowed pressure rate of 6.6%. That ranked 54th out of 94 qualified tackles. Williams ranked 13th at 4.1%.
Moore had the most trouble with Rams edge rusher Byron Young in Week 18. Across 16 pass-rush snaps on Moore’s side, Young recorded 3 total pressures (18.8% pressure rate), including a sack.
Young is an undersized edge rusher at 250 pounds, but he has excellent speed (4.43 forty) and explosion (98th-percentile broad jump at 132 inches). That sounds a lot like the Jets’ Will McDonald, who is similarly speedy and had an identical broad jump at the combine.
Here, you can see Young (#0, left side of your screen) beat Moore using a rip move around the corner. Young forces Sam Darnold to step up and also gets a hand on him, forcing him to double-clutch and miss the throw.
McDonald has the tools to win with this same move. He even has the bend to turn it into a sack.
McDonald sack (right side). Hell of a job stemming the LT inside, LT transitions his weight on his post foot, burst back outside with the rip for the sack.
Showing off great bend once again
His power through his bend/ability to corner with weight on him is absurd for his size pic.twitter.com/6LEWYqJNCF
— Joe Blewett (@Joerb31) August 13, 2023
If McDonald finds success with the speed-rip early in the game, Moore may begin to favor the outside, setting up McDonald to win with his inside spin move later in the game.
In his rookie year, McDonald split his time between both sides of the line, playing 41% of his snaps on the right side and 59% on the left. However, in this year’s preseason, McDonald played 96% of his snaps on the right edge. If that holds in the regular season, McDonald will see nearly all of his reps against the 49ers’ left tackle, meaning Moore will be his primary matchup in the event Williams sits. Considering Moore’s struggles with Young’s speed in last year’s season finale, McDonald is poised for similar success.
Moore earned a solid run-blocking grade of 69.7 at PFF, ranking 30th out of 99 tackles. However, across the two games Moore started, the 49ers were abysmal at rushing to the left side, gaining 50 yards on 21 attempts (2.4 yards per attempt). In all other games, they ran for 1,338 yards on 234 attempts to the left side (5.7 yards per attempt). It’s also worth noting that San Francisco averaged 15.6 left-side attempts per game in Williams’ starts compared to just 10.5 attempts per game in Moore’s starts.
The significant decline in rushing volume and efficiency to the left side would reduce the pressure on McDonald to stop the run. McDonald’s run defense is his main question at the moment. That weakness will not be targeted nearly as much if Williams is off the field.
If Williams is out, McDonald has a golden opportunity to make a statement in the season opener.
Left guard
Aaron Banks reprises his role after starting at left guard for the 49ers in 30 games over the past two seasons.
Despite his status as a yearly starter, Banks has not been very productive. In 2023, Banks allowed a pressure rate of 4.9%, ranking 47th out of 79 qualified guards. In the run game, Banks earned a run-blocking grade of 55.2, ranking 56th out of 81 qualified guards.
This is great news for the Jets, as Banks is poised to spend most of his time blocking the unblockable Quinnen Williams. In 2023, Williams played 87% of his snaps on the right side of the line, which means his typical matchup is the left guard.
Banks struggled mightily as a pass blocker in games against star defensive tackles last year. Across five games against defensive tackles who finished top-15 in PFF’s overall grade (min. 500 snaps), Banks recorded an average PFF pass-blocking grade of 49.0. That includes a 19.9 grade against the Giants’ Dexter Lawrence and a 1.5 grade against the Cowboys’ Osa Odighizuwa. This was exacerbated in the playoffs as he averaged a 41.2 pass-blocking grade across games against Detroit’s Alim McNeill and Kansas City’s Chris Jones.
Banks has good size at 6-foot-5 and 325 pounds but is not the most athletic guard. Williams is an elite technician with superb explosion and flexibility to boot. Look for Williams to try to exploit Banks using his finesse package.
In the Super Bowl, Banks had an awful game against Chris Jones, allowing 5 pressures and posting a 23.1 pass-blocking grade. Jones was one of only two defensive tackles with more pressures than Williams last season (along with Aaron Donald). Like Williams, Jones excels at winning with finesse and athleticism. Jones used both to cook Banks on the biggest stage.
Here, watch Jones (#95, left side of your screen) explode off the ball, defeat Banks’ hands with a double swipe, and immediately get into the backfield for pressure.
Williams has the same double-swipe move in his arsenal.
Q (4i tech) on left vs the LG. Double swipe into a rip for the sack on Mac pic.twitter.com/z42YP4AKt0
— Joe Blewett (@Joerb31) July 13, 2023
The 49ers will try their best to double-team Williams as much as possible, but he will still find himself in some one-on-ones, especially when the Jets blitz on third down. And in those situations, Williams’s skill and quickness could be too much for Banks to handle.
Center
Jake Brendel, who will turn 31 next week, was a longtime backup until he broke out as the 49ers’ starting center in 2022. They re-signed him after a solid season, but Brendel took a step back in 2023.
Brendel allowed a 5.1% pressure rate this past season, ranking 29th out of 36 qualified centers. His run blocking was better, as he ranked 15th with a 70.5 run-blocking grade, but the pass protection was a major disappointment after he posted an elite 2.0% pressure rate in 2022.
The Jets almost never place a nose tackle over the center, so Brendel’s primary job will be to help out the guards against the defensive tackles. With Quinnen Williams being a premier double-team magnet, Brendel will probably spend most of his time assisting Banks in doubling Williams.
Considering Williams’ skill at splitting double teams and the pass-blocking woes of both Banks and Brendel, Williams should still be able to make plays even when doubled by San Francisco’s LG-C combo. All the while, the attention Williams demands will open up one-on-one chances for his teammates.
With Williams likely to draw Brendel to his left on most plays, Javon Kinlaw will be left with favorable one-on-one matchups against the right guard.
Right guard
The 49ers are projected to start rookie third-round pick Dominick Puni at right guard.
Puni is already 24 years old, as he was a six-year player in college. He spent four years at Division-II Central Missouri before transferring to Kansas for two seasons. Puni started at left guard in 2022 before moving to left tackle in 2023.
According to scouting reports, Puni is considered a nimble pass protector but struggles to generate power and sustain blocks in the run game. This held up across Puni’s three preseason appearances in 2023, as he earned a 75.0 pass-blocking grade at PFF compared to a 65.3 run-blocking grade.
Puni’s questions in the run game make him an interesting season-opening matchup for Javon Kinlaw at the Jets’ left defensive tackle spot. Kinlaw showed major progress as a pass rusher in 2023, but his run defense remained a concern. While Kinlaw is an explosive athlete who can make splashy plays, he often finds himself moved by double teams.
Kinlaw displayed awareness of this weakness when speaking to the media in the summer. He spoke about his desire to improve this part of his game, explaining that he worked to add weight in an effort to hold up stronger against the run. Facing a rookie guard who is considered a work-in-progress as a run-blocker, Kinlaw has an opportunity to show the fruits of his offseason labor.
Not to mention, Kinlaw is facing off against the team he played with for the last four seasons, so he should have a solid feel for their cadences, snap timing, and run concepts. This could give him the extra split-second he needs to consistently dominate Puni in his NFL debut.
Right tackle
A fifth-round pick out of West Virginia in 2020, Colton McKivitz spent three years as a backup for San Francisco before elevating to the starting right tackle spot in 2023. He started all 20 regular season and playoff games.
Yet again, we have a returning starter who simply was not very productive last year. McKivitz allowed 47 total pressures, per PFF, tied for the eighth-most among tackles. His 8.2% pressure rate ranked 59th out of 73 qualifiers. He did fine as a run blocker, ranking 29th out of 70 qualifiers with a 68.1 run-blocking grade at PFF.
It remains to be seen who the Jets will utilize at their left defensive end spot (vs. RT). Jermaine Johnson primarily played on the right side (vs. LT) last year, logging 68% of his snaps on the right and 32% on the left. So, he could see some of McKivitz, but it seems likely he’ll spend most of his time on the other side against Williams or Moore. Perhaps the plan is for McDonald to replace Johnson on the right side in passing situations while Johnson kicks over to the left side.
If Haason Reddick suits up, he will likely be the man tasked with facing McKivitz. Reddick played 87% of his snaps on the left side for Philadelphia last year and leaned toward that side in each of the past four seasons.
In a game against the 49ers last year, Reddick rushed 19 times off McKivitz’s side and recorded 4 pressures (21.1% pressure rate), including one sack.
Reddick-versus-McKivitz is a juicy matchup for New York. It’s yet another reason for the Jets to pray that Reddick decides to show up this week. From Reddick’s perspective, he should be chomping at the bit to scorch McKivitz on national television and boost the value of his next contract.
If Reddick doesn’t show up, we could be looking at Micheal Clemons taking up some of the left-side snaps against McKivitz, which is not an enticing proposition. In 2023, Clemons had 2 pressures on 54 pass-rush snaps from the left side (3.7% pressure rate), including zero sacks or hits. The more Clemons plays, the less the Jets will maximize the favorable matchups across from them.
The Jets must win in the trenches
If Trent Williams plays, the entire picture changes. Williams is one of the rare linemen in NFL history who are so talented that they can single-handedly alter the unit’s effectiveness on their own. He is the most dominant run-blocker in today’s league and a strong blindside protector to boot.
However, whether Williams plays or not, the Jets will have favorable matchups at no less than four of the five offensive line spots. If they cannot take advantage of those mismatches, their chances of an upset will be slim to none. It doesn’t matter how talented the Jets’ secondary is; Kyle Shanahan will scheme up ways to move the football as long as his quarterback has time and his running game has room. The only way to truly stop Shanahan is to thwart his plays before they have a chance to begin.
But if the Jets can dominate in the trenches – shutting down Christian McCaffrey in the run game and forcing Brock Purdy to make plays outside of the offensive structure – they will be in an excellent position to pull off the upset.
