Winning the NFL free agent market has never been about reeling in the biggest fish. It’s about finding value.
The Philadelphia Eagles did not go from a 1-6 finish in 2023 to winning Super Bowl LIX because of splashy moves. Yes, yes, they nailed it with Saquon Barkley. But Barkley ($26M guaranteed) wasn’t their most lucrative signing of the offseason. It was Bryce Huff ($34M guaranteed), and they whiffed miserably on that one. Huff was a healthy scratch in the Super Bowl.
What really put the Eagles over the top was netting an All-Pro linebacker (Zack Baun) and a quality starting guard (Mekhi Becton) for a combined $4.35 million guaranteed. In the same offseason, the New York Jets spent essentially the same money ($4.32 million) on Leki Fotu and Isaiah Oliver.
Those are the signings that separate champions from the pack. Everyone makes their share of blockbuster moves, hitting on some and missing on others. Your efficiency at filling in the margins is what determines your success relative to the other 31 teams.
First-year general manager Darren Mougey is about to take his first crack at finding value on the free agent market. Mougey and the New York Jets front office must take a hard look at each and every free agent to determine whether they will provide enough bang for the Jets’ buck – particularly within the team’s new offensive and defensive schemes.
Part of that process involves ruling out big-name players who seem enticing on paper, but clearly would not be worthwhile additions upon further review. Not every player who makes the big bucks is actually a net-positive addition. Sometimes, the market overpays players for things that do not translate to winning. Other times, a talented player doesn’t fit what a certain team is trying to do. And in dreaded cases (that the Jets are all too familiar with), you get the daunting combination of both.
New York will clearly be in the market for multiple tight ends this offseason. The Jets project to rely heavily on 12 personnel under offensive coordinator Tanner Engstrand, and the best tight end on their current roster is Jeremy Ruckert. For these reasons, tight end is arguably the Jets’ second-biggest need behind quarterback, especially because it is a position that supports the quarterback.
Thus, their search could lead them to free agent tight end Mike Gesicki, who has become well-known as one of the NFL’s better pass catchers at the position over the past six seasons. Since 2019, Gesicki ranks ninth among tight ends in receiving yards (3,324), 11th in receptions (303), and 10th in receiving touchdowns (22).
Gesicki is coming off one of his best seasons. In his first year with the Bengals, Gesicki had 65 receptions and 664 receiving yards, ranking eighth and 10th, respectively, among tight ends. He also earned an overall grade of 71.5 from Pro Football Focus, placing ninth among tight ends with at least 60 targets. The only other tight ends ranked top-10 in all three categories were George Kittle, Trey McBride, Travis Kelce, Brock Bowers, and Jonnu Smith.
These numbers put Gesicki in a class of his own among members of the 2025 free agent class not named Zach Ertz. Among tight ends set for free agency, Gesicki ranked second in receptions and first in receiving yards. Outside of Ertz, nobody was particularly close to Gesicki in either category.
Most receptions in 2024 among 2025 free agent TE:
- Zach Ertz (66, 6th)
- Mike Gesicki (65, 8th)
- Tyler Conklin (51, 17th)
- Juwan Johnson (50, 18th)
- Austin Hooper (45, 25th)
Most receiving yards in 2024 among 2025 free agent TE:
- Mike Gesicki (665, 10th)
- Zach Ertz (654, 11th)
- Juwan Johnson (548, 15th)
- Austin Hooper (476, 23rd)
- Tyler Conklin (449, 27th)
With the market at tight end looking mighty thin, Gesicki could cash in at 29 years old. Spotrac estimates his market value to be $6.7 million per year, but it’s reasonable to believe he will aim higher.
In 2024, the largest contract for a free agent tight end went to Noah Fant, who netted a two-year, $21 million deal after a 2023 season in which he had 32 receptions for 414 yards and no touchdowns. While Fant was three years younger, Gesicki’s agent will make a strong case that he deserves a contract close to Fant’s $10.5 million per year.
Regardless of where Gesicki’s price falls, the Jets should steer clear. He is not the type of tight end they need in Engstrand’s offense.
Gesicki is a tight end in name only. He lined up in the slot on 68.2% of his routes run in 2024, the highest rate among all NFL tight ends. Gesicki lined up out wide on another 23.1% of his routes, third-highest among qualifiers. Ultimately, he was in-line just 8.4% of the time, the lowest rate among qualifiers.
Gesicki has developed such a bad reputation as a run blocker that the Bengals almost completely avoided using him in that phase. A stunning 86% of his offensive snaps in 2024 were on pass plays, by far the highest rate among tight ends with at least 200 offensive snaps. So, not only is he unable to assist in the run game, but his presence on the field makes it easy for the opponent to anticipate that a pass is coming.
The Jets will need their tight ends to be just as productive in the run game as in the pass game, if not more so. In 2024, Engstrand’s Lions ranked second in the NFL with 12.1 rush attempts per game with 12 personnel (1 RB/2 TE/2 WR) on the field. Not only that, but they loved running toward the tight ends on those plays. When running the ball with 12 personnel, Detroit ran toward the strong side of the formation 52.9% of the time, which ranked fifth-highest.
Gesicki is a tall slot receiver. If the Jets want to use him in that fashion by essentially penciling him in as the WR3 in their offense (not in an official capacity, as he could then negotiate for a bigger contract), then by all means, he would be a nice weapon to have around. But he does not fill a hole in New York’s tight end room.
There are no clear-cut above-average starters available in free agency for New York to pursue, but it is imperative that any tight end added to the roster is capable of assisting in the run game, regardless of their receiving prowess. For that reason, they should target tight ends like Mo Alie-Cox, who have a positive reputation as a blocker. Block-first tight ends typically cost a fraction of Gesicki-types, yet they would make a much bigger impact in the Jets’ offense. That’s how you win in free agency.
