Heading into the 2024 offseason, one of the New York Jets’ biggest needs was adding a wide receiver opposite of Garrett Wilson. The Jets found their man in Mike Williams.
The seventh overall pick in 2017, Williams’ career has been hampered by injuries, but he has been excellent when on the field. However, he’s coming off a torn ACL and will be 30 years old in October. What can Jets fans realistically expect from Williams in 2024?
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To answer this question, I looked at ten 1,000-yard receivers who have torn their ACL since 2015:
- Cooper Kupp
- Odell Beckham Jr.
- Michael Gallup
- Allen Robinson
- Julian Edelman
- Courtland Sutton
- Keenan Allen
- Jordy Nelson
- Chris Godwin
- Robert Woods
I compared each player’s yards per game, receptions per game, touchdowns per game, and yards per route run between the year before their injury and the year after.
The average wide receiver drop-off after an ACL injury
| Player | Age @ Injury | YDS/G | REC/G | TDS/G | YPRR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odell Beckham Jr. | 28 | -40.7% | -32.1% | 42.9% | -28.2% |
| Michael Gallup | 25 | -50.3% | -48.6% | -47.1% | -22.6% |
| Allen Robinson | 24 | 5.1% | -7.3% | -18.0% | 27.1% |
| Julian Edelman | 31 | 2.5% | 0.7% | 166.7% | -1.5% |
| Courtland Sutton | 25 | -34.3% | -24.2% | -68.6% | -31.3% |
| Keenan Allen | 24 | -3.9% | -23.9% | -25% | 18.1% |
| Jordy Nelson | 30 | -17.3% | -1.0% | 7.7% | -30.1% |
| Cooper Kupp | 25 | 25.3% | 42.1% | 87.5% | 1.5% |
| Chris Godwin | 25 | -2.6% | 28% | -65.7% | -9.3% |
| Robert Woods | 29 | -39.9% | -37.2% | -64.4% | -28.8% |
| Average | 28.6 | -15.6% | -10.3% | 1.6% | -10.5% |
Across the four categories, wide receivers returning from torn ACLs saw their production drop by an average of about 9% in the following year.
Receiving yards saw the largest drop while receptions and yards per route run saw smaller drops. There was a slight increase in touchdowns, although that was largely buoyed by Julian Edelman; six of the 10 players saw a decrease in touchdowns.
Of the players studied, five saw their average yards per game either improve or drop by less than 4%: Allen Robinson, Cooper Kupp, Chris Godwin, Keenan Allen, and Julian Edelman. Excluding Edelman, the other four players were all 25 and under at the time of their injury.
On the opposite end, players like Odell Beckham Jr., Michael Gallup, Courtland Sutton, and Robert Woods saw dramatic declines in production. This group has various play styles and ages which make it difficult to identify any trends.
For perspective, here are the actual stats posted by each of these players in their first post-ACL tear seasons.
| Player | Age @ Injury | Games | YDS/G | REC/G | TDS/G | YDS | REC | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odell Beckham Jr. | 28 | 14 | 38.4 | 3.1 | 0.36 | 537 | 44 | 5 |
| Michael Gallup | 25 | 14 | 30.3 | 2.8 | 0.29 | 418 | 34 | 2 |
| Allen Robinson | 24 | 13 | 58.0 | 4.2 | 0.31 | 754 | 55 | 4 |
| Julian Edelman | 31 | 12 | 70.8 | 6.2 | 0.50 | 850 | 74 | 6 |
| Courtland Sutton | 25 | 17 | 45.6 | 3.4 | 0.12 | 776 | 58 | 2 |
| Keenan Allen | 24 | 16 | 87.1 | 6.4 | 0.38 | 1393 | 102 | 6 |
| Jordy Nelson | 30 | 16 | 78.6 | 6.1 | 0.88 | 1257 | 97 | 14 |
| Cooper Kupp | 25 | 16 | 72.6 | 5.9 | 0.63 | 1161 | 94 | 10 |
| Chris Godwin | 25 | 15 | 68.2 | 6.9 | 0.20 | 1023 | 104 | 3 |
| Robert Woods | 29 | 17 | 31.0 | 3.1 | 0.12 | 527 | 53 | 2 |
| Average | 28.6 | 15.0 | 58.1 | 4.8 | 0.38 | 869.6 | 71.5 | 5.4 |
As with many studies involving only 10 samples, there is high variance, which makes it difficult to project. However, we can start to set expectations for Williams’ best, worst, and most likely scenarios.
Similar players to Williams
To get a better expectation for Mike Williams, we can take a closer look at the players who had similar builds/playstyles or were a similar age at time of injury.
For players of similar builds/playstyles, I looked at Allen Robinson, Courtland Sutton, and Jordy Nelson, who match Williams’ profile as a tall, big receiver who primarily attacks downfield. All three players were at least 6-foot-2 and 210 pounds with a career ADOT (average depth of target) of 11.7 or higher. Williams is 6-foot-4 and 218 pounds with a 14.3 ADOT.
On average, these players saw their production drop by around 16%.
- Yards per route run: -11.4%
- Receptions per game: -10.8%
- Yards per game: -15.5%
- Touchdowns per game: -26.3%
Sutton saw significant drops in all four categories. Robinson actually improved his yards per game and yards per route run, although he caught slightly fewer receptions and touchdowns. Nelson’s yardage dipped from his incredible 2014 season, but he still posted 97 receptions for 1,257 yards and 14 touchdowns with Aaron Rodgers.
When looking at players who tore their ACL at 28 or older (Williams was 29), the group includes Nelson, Odell Beckham Jr., Julian Edelman, and Robert Woods. Despite a spike in touchdowns, the dips in the other three categories are more significant.
- Yards per route run: -22.1%
- Receptions per game: -17.4%
- Yards per game: -23.7%
- Touchdowns per game: +38.2%
Edelman (74/850/6) and Nelson (97/1257/14) still found success, as they were the favorite targets of two Hall of Fame quarterbacks, helping to mitigate the effects of their injuries. However, Beckham (44/537/5) and Woods (53/527/2) experienced large drop-offs at age 29 and age 30, respectively.
What can we expect from Mike Williams?
From the analysis above, we can paint a likely picture of how Mike Williams will perform in 2024.
If we combine the average changes in production for the six players who fit into either the similarly-built group or the 28+ group, here are the results in each statistic:
- Yards per route run: -15.5%
- Receptions per game: -16.8%
- Yards per game: -20.8%
- Touchdowns per game: +11.0%
Williams only played three games in 2023, so we’ll include his 2022 production to get a reliable sample to work from. These were his stats across 16 games from 2022-23:
- 2.00 yards per route run
- 82 receptions (5.1 per game)
- 1,144 yards (71.5 per game)
- 5 touchdowns (0.31 per game)
If we adjust those numbers using the rates above, this is where Williams ends up:
- 1.69 yards per route run
- 4.2 receptions per game
- 56.6 yards per game
- 0.34 touchdowns per game
Across 17 games, that would put Williams on pace for:
- 71 receptions (Would have ranked 28th among WR in 2023)
- 962 yards (28th)
- 6 touchdowns (27th)
It might be slightly optimistic to expect 17 games from Williams, as only half of the 10 receivers played every game in their first post-ACL season. However, even if Williams played only 15 games (the average number across the 10 players), he would be expected to post:
- 63 receptions (Would have ranked 36th among WR in 2023)
- 849 yards (34th)
- 5 touchdowns (28th)
Even with a normal post-ACL decline, Williams still projects to be a high-end No. 2 wide receiver for the Jets. As the season progresses, he should only get better. By the end of the year, he should be closer to his old form.
Regardless of his injury and age, Williams remains poised to form one of the best wide receiver duos in the NFL alongside the Year 3 version of Garrett Wilson.
