If the New York Jets can keep the San Francisco 49ers close, they have a strong chance to win. The question is if they can keep the game close. An overlooked matchup could decide the game, and it’s a clear advantage for the Jets: special teams.
When Aaron Rodgers last played the 49ers, the game flipped on two special teams plays. In the 2021 NFC Divisional Round, up 7-0, the Packers lost three points when Mason Crosby’s field goal was blocked to end the first half.
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Still, the Packers were ahead 10-3 with 4:41 to go in the fourth quarter and facing a punt from their own 12-yard line. Punter Corey Bojorquez stood in his own endzone. Defensive lineman Jordan Willis came right up the middle and blocked the punt, and safety Talanoa Hufanga picked it up and took it into the end zone to allow the 49ers to tie the game.
After the Packers punted again on their next drive, San Francisco drove down for the game-winning field goal.
This was merely the culmination of a season-long special teams swoon for the Packers. Green Bay’s special teams unit had a cumulative 59.9 Pro Football Focus grade during the regular season, the second-worst in the NFL. It ultimately cost them in a nail-biter against a great team.
The 49ers’ special teams unit was better than that in 2023, but they still struggled. Their 68.1 PFF grade ranked 25th. They also ranked 25th in special teams DVOA (-2.0%). Their worst DVOA came on kick coverage (-5.10, 30th) and punt returning (-5.10, 29th). The numbers are that much more incredible considering punter Mitch Wishnowsky ranked fourth in pEPA (0.18).
Third-round rookie kicker Jake Moody also had his issues. The 49ers ranked 19th in kicking DVOA (-2.80). Moody went 21-for-25 (84%) on field goals, ranked 20th out of 33 kickers (min. 15 field goal attempts). The bigger issue, though, was when he missed those field goals. He missed a game-winning 41-yard attempt against the Browns with seconds remaining, sealing a 19-17 loss.
More importantly, in the playoffs, Moody missed an extra point and went 1-for-3 on kicks between 40-49 yards. Worst of all, his missed extra point came in the Super Bowl. This meant that after he hit a 53-yard field goal to put the 49ers ahead with 1:53 remaining in the game, the score was 19-16 rather than 20-16. It allowed Patrick Mahomes to easily get into field goal range and tie the game.
Meanwhile, Brant Boyer’s Jets special teams unit enjoyed another strong season. They ranked sixth in PFF grade (89.0) and fourth in DVOA (3.1%). They were particularly strong on kicks (8.60, 5th) and punt returns (3.30, 8th). However, their kick returns were abysmal, ranking last at -4.10.
The Jets’ poor kick returning in 2023 means they might be unable to take advantage of the 49ers’ poor coverage. Perhaps Xavier Gipson, Isaiah Davis, and/or Malachi Corley can get it going. The Jets traded away their best returner from the preseason, Brandon Codrington, placing the onus on the other three to step up their game. Maybe the new rules and San Francisco’s poor coverage unit can give the Jets a leg up.
Based on 2023 numbers, though, the Jets have a major advantage in the kicking game. Greg Zuerlein went 35-for-38 (93.8%) on his kicks. Zuerlein did miss two field goals in the preseason, and kickers can be streaky from year to year. On the whole, though, Zuerlein outperformed Moody in a larger sample size. The Jets have a clear advantage if a critical kick situation comes up.
The Jets’ coverage units lost Justin Hardee, their special teams captain for the last three seasons and one of the best in the game. They love Irvin Charles as Hardee’s replacement. There are no guarantees it will be enough, though, especially since the punt return touchdown they allowed last year came with Charles on the field and Hardee off it due to injury.
Though San Francisco has new returners, they do not seem to represent much of a threat. Speedy rookie Jacob Cowing (4.38 40-time) is listed as their No. 1 punt returner. Cowing did not do much as a punt returner in college or the preseason, although his raw speed could make him dangerous. The two kick returners against the Jets will likely be Ronnie Bell and Jordan Mason, neither of whom has had much success as a kick returner through college or the NFL.
Special teams might make no difference in this game for one reason or another. But it is one of the biggest advantages the Jets have in the game — and if they win, it could be the reason why.
